Long shots, Cutler, & Week 1 Gambling Leans

I can't not focus on football, so here's some more random football thoughts.

Long shots that I'd consider placing money on if I were in Vegas with these odds (Long shot defined as anything beyond 20/1) - odds provided by www.bookmaker.eu:
Houston Texans: 30/1 - If you read my last blog about football, you'd already know this would be a long-shot that I would like.
Chicago Bears: 38/1 - If they can protect their QB even slightly better than last year, they can be better than last year. Although I think teams around them in the upper echelon of the NFC got better and will be better. Still, at these odds, it'd be worth a small bet on these odds if their defense can play up to the same level as last year and offense improves slightly.
Tampa Bay: 45/1 - Big fan of these odds for a team with a soon-to-be Pro Bowl QB in Josh Freeman (25 TDs, only 6 ints), a tough-to-tackle RB in LeGarrette Blount, and a defense that was top 10 in points allowed and takeaway differential. These odds are inflated mainly due to their NFC South competition (New Orleans and Atlanta). But at 45/1, I'd be all over these odds.

Thoughts on how Jay Cutler will be received:
If Cutler is booed to start the year because of how last year ended, then I wish those fans a season full of Todd Collins and see how that goes. Everyone and their mother seemed to get caught up in the emotion of the injury last year that left Cutler sidelined for the 2nd half of the NFC Championship game in their eventual loss to the Packers. Fans and fellow NFL players (notably Maurice Jones-Drew) were basing their judgments of Cutler's "injury" on the shots that Fox showed of him on the sideline supposedly not caring about what was going on in the game or not helping Hanie out. I can't say this for certain because I wasn't there, but I'm fairly certain Fox was showing isolated shots of him by himself on purpose to paint this picture. It doesn't help that Cutler is cold to the media (and now seeing how misconstrued they painted him here, who can blame him?), so he gets no benefit of the doubt from the fans.

The dude got raped without protection all year (52 sacks in 15 games played) and should be soon delivering the bastard baby that the Giants impregnated him with last October. He started all but one game last year despite this beating behind one of the worst offensive lines that Chicago has ever seen. I'm not saying he shouldn't be taking the blame for some of these sacks and also just taking blame in general when the offense goes awry, but to question this guy's toughness (especially a guy who's playing with diabetes) is pure ignorance.

My favorite thing to come from the Cutler aftermath was when people said they saw him walking around just fine when they saw him going to a restaurant in the city or the like. Yeah - because walking into a restaurant is the same thing as running away from 250 pound linebackers on a football field with an MCL tear. If he's dodging angry waiters who lost money on the Bears after the game with amazing grace, then get back to me. Please don't boo him to start the year for last year because you think he pussied out of the biggest game of his life. Instead, save those boos for legitimate mistakes that he will eventually make in 2011.

22 days until college football starts, 29 till NFL kicks off...
which means I can't stop thinking about who I am going to bet on in week 1. The preseason in NFL will affect some of these odds, but I have some idea of a few potential week 1 NFL bets:

Kickoff game: New Orleans at Green Bay (-4.5/total of 46). I like the under here. Seems like week 1, especially opening game, defenses are ahead of offenses, which leads to lower scores. I'd love to see the total go up to about 48 or so if possible (the betting public almost always bets Overs on prime-time games), but will likely be happy with betting this at 46. I see about a 20/24-17 score in the opener.

Sunday games: Indianapolis at Houston (-3/total of 46). I like the over here. While I think the Houston defense will be better with Philips as their D-coordinator, I wouldn't be surprised if there's an adjustment for some of these guys to get acclimated to a 3-4 defense. If Manning plays, I'd expect a total score in the low 50s at least. If the line falls to 2.5, I may consider Houston as a pick.

Carolina at Arizona (-5.5, 36.5). Seems like most people are on the Kolb train, but I can't lay 5.5 on a team that didn't really do much else to improve their team through the free agent wire. Their offensive line allowed almost as many sacks as the Bears did, and it doesn't appear they addressed their O-line woes. Meanwhile, the Panthers were devastated with injuries last year and can't get worse than they were last year. I think Ron Rivera will get about 6 wins out of these guys this year. I'll gladly take the +5.5 and may consider a money line bet on them if I use a book this year that has money lines.

I know more lines will stick out soon, but those are the initial ones that I see. I'm going to try avoiding NCAA betting in week 1, but may find an angle to bet on in the high-profile game (LSU/Oregon).


Not much time left till the season starts in both, so let the countdown continue and let's watch baseball go swiftly into the sunset. This up/down/up/down from the Sox has me convinced they will end 81-81, so no use sweating that.

9 more days till fantasy football draft - which officially kicks off the football mania. Happy football!