Baseballog - Midseason Review on Predictions

I didn't want to be one of those guys who makes predictions to start the season and not follow up with how they are doing, as many people who make predictions of any sort tend to do. Here's a look back at my 2011 preseason baseball predictions and my assessment on how they've looked so far. Mind you, the surprise teams were based on odds that my gambling site at the time posted and nothing to do with how a team may have performed in previous years.

(Note: If you take a look at my picture that opens my prediction blog, you will see that I could not have been more wrong about Adam Dunn. High on-base percentage and 41 home runs, my ass!)

Predictions vs. Reality (at the All-Star Break)

AL East
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays....Reality: Rays. Even though they are 6 games back in baseball's toughest division, they are showing that they are better than the price that oddsmakers put them on.
Division Winner- Prediction: Boston....Reality: Boston and NY are looking like they will be in a neck and neck race for the division title. Boston has survived a terrible start and lots of injuries and NY's pitching has been deeper than expected thanks to the resurgence of Bartolo Colon. I'll stick with my Boston prediction but now I think NY will be the Wild Card winner.

AL Central
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: Minnesota....Reality: Oops. The Indians were paying close to 15/1 or 20/1 to win the division. Clearly I fumbled the surprise team in this one.
Division Winner- Prediction: Minnesota....Reality: Oops, Part II. This looks like a two-horse race to me (sorry Chicago, too inconsistent for me to trust with my preseason prediction). I think Detroit holds off Cleveland and wins it.

AL West
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: Los Angeles Angels....Reality: Solid prediction. One game out of the division lead. Getting 3/1 on them to start the year would have been a good deal.
Division Winner- Prediction: Texas....Reality: Another AL division, another 2 horse race. At least like my Boston prediction, Texas looks like they can live up to my Magic 8-ball prediction of winning the division. I'll stick with Texas as my division champ.

NL Central
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: Cubs....Reality: Uhm.....Next. Pittsburgh takes the cake here no doubt.
Division Winner- Prediction: Brewers.....Reality: Milwaukee is in a 4-team race for the division title. I like the move to get K-Rod, although I wonder if there will be a closer controversy if Axford blows a save that might get fans going and get egos riled up in the dugout. St. Louis has survived so much and is still right there. I'm rooting for my original prediction, but I see St. Louis winning this for some reason.

NL East
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: Florida....Reality: It looked good for a month or so, but now Florida sits at the bottom of the division despite riding a 5-game winning streak into the All-Star break. The Mets being over .500 (albeit one game over) would probably be the biggest surprise.
Division Winner- Prediction: Braves....Reality: I think I was trying to be cute and go against the grain of picking the obvious Phillies pick here. Even though Philadelphia's up only 3.5 games over the Braves, I don't see the Braves overtaking them. I do see them taking the Wild Card though.

NL West
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: San Diego....Reality: While San Diego is playing better than most people probably thought they would, the winner of the surprise team goes to Arizona, projected for a win total in the mid 70s and currently sitting 3 back.
Division Winner- Prediction: Giants...Reality: This division pick is the one I am most comfortable with, despite an injury to their best player, Buster Posey. Despite their offensive woes, the Giants find a way to grind out just enough runs to support their outstanding pitching staff.


Prognosis:
Surprise Teams: Only really hit on the Angels and Rays, with the Angels being the only of the surprise teams that have a shot at the division crown this year. The others, I soon found, were longshots to win their divisions for a reason.
Division Winners/Wild Cards: There's a chance I could hit all 4 of my NL playoff teams, albeit with the NL East winner/Wild Card switched. I had the AL Central completely wrong (and probably will barring a White Sox/Twins hot 2nd half) but feel solid with Texas and Boston.

New World Series prediction: Philadelphia over Detroit