To open the series, the Hawks were +185 odds to win the series. Compare that to the Pacers being +2000 (that's 20/1) to beat the Bulls (-4000) in round 1, and the Spurs/Grizzles handle currently at (-370/+310) for the 1/8 matchup in the West, which is about as low of odds as I'd expect to see in a 1/8 for basketball.
Without further ado, my predictions for the basketball playoffs, series by series:
Round 1:
Bulls over Pacers in 4- Bulls have owned the Central this year. I don't see how the Pacers win more than 1 game.
Magic over Atlanta in 5- The thing to look for here is Howard getting another technical. They can't afford to lose him for future playoff games in round 2. I think the Magic coast here and lose game 3 but win the rest. Magic are -650 to win the series.
Heat over Sixers in 6- Doug Collins deserves some coach of the year votes for his ability to turn around the Sixers within the year, especially after their terrible start. I think they will be able to steal a few games at home but ultimately, the Heat prevail (and I believe the Heat's Big Three will turn their switch on towards the end of this series). The Heat are overwhelming -2050 odds to win the series, so for every dollar you want to win, you have to risk $20.50.
Knicks over Celtics in 6- This looks like the most likely upset of the 4 matchups in the East. The Celtics have lost their edge since losing Perkins. While the Knicks haven't exactly been world beaters since getting Anthony, they've been getting hot as the playoffs approach. I think they'll hold their own in their home games and steal a game in Boston. Knicks sit at +290 odds.
Spurs over Grizzlies in 7- The Spurs are a shadow of themselves compared to their start of the year success. I think the Grizzlies will scare the Spurs and create one of the more surprisingly entertaining 1st round series.
Thunder over Denver in 6- This has my vote as the first round series I am most interested in watching/following. The Thunder are one of the best 4 seeds I've seen on paper since following basketball. They will win their first series as an NBA team in Oklahoma City. OKC coming off the board as a -210, which I consider to be nice odds for them.
Lakers over Hornets in 4- This is where the Lakers turn on the switch. Regular season losing streaks are exactly that- they happen in the regular season. The Lakers won't lose more than a game in this series. Their series odds are -2100, the second biggest favorite behind the Bulls.
Mavs over Blazers in 7- This series determines the team who will lose to the Lakers in round 2. I'd put my money on the Mavs, who aren't usually playing their best basketball historically in late April/early May as a team. I think they have just enough to win here, but beyond that, forget about it. Mavs are the lowest favorites on the board at -190.Round 2:
Bulls over Magic in 6- Rose is unguardable, but that doesn't mean he will always get the best of Dwight Howard, who will make life more difficult in this series than the Pacers will do. Ultimately, the better team will prevail, and the Bulls continue their improbable run towards the franchise's 7th title. I will guess that the Bulls go off the board at -400 or -500 for this series.
Heat over Knicks in 5- As I said before, I think the Heat's switch turns on towards the end of round 1. While the Heat are capable of playing defense, the Knicks' best defensive plays are usually on offense when they hold the ball for more than 10 seconds. Take this one to the bank. The Heat would be -500 for this series.
Thunder over Spurs in 6- The Spurs have reached their fork in the road, and unfortunately it's not a fork picking up a nice piece of steak. Rather, this fork is covered in gravel bits. Perkins being added to the team will prove to be the best move made at the deadline in the short-term.
Lakers over Mavs in 5- See first round capsules. Laker's switch: ON = Mavs: SCREWED.
Conference Finals:
Heat over Bulls in 6- Consider this blasphemy for someone who owns a Scalabrine jersey, but I have this feeling that the Heat are going to play their best basketball in May. I haven't been able to shake this feeling that the Bulls are playing over their heads and will eventually crash. That's not to say this season would be a disappointment if they finished in the NBA Final Four- far from it. What the Bulls have done this year has been nothing short of incredible. I'm gonna trust my gut on this one and say the Heat win the series, but I will definitely be rooting against this feeling.
Lakers over Thunder in 7- This will be the best series of the NBA playoffs, much like their first-round battle last year (with the Lakers victorious in 6 games). I envision Durant making that next step to becoming closer to legend status, but he will have to bow to elder legend Kobe. I see both gentlemen going off for about 35 ppg in the series, but experience playing in the favor of the Lakers in an epic series.
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| While Kobe's fingers may look a tad feminine and pale, don't be fooled by thinking they can't flip the switch again. |
Finals: Lakers over Heat in 6- The NBA, ESPN, ABC and any other 3/4 lettered sports channel provider gets the finals they wanted to see since LeBron made The Decision and the matchup they've been craving since the Cavs were the 1 seed in back-to-back years in Bryant vs. James. One thing that could play in the Heat's favor is that they'd have home-court advantage in this one should they face each other (Heat have 1 more regular season win than the Lakers). While I think Kobe is nearing the twilight of his status of an elite player, there isn't a single player in the game who has the talent and determination to win than he does. There are others in the game with more talent than him at this point, but Kobe's will to succeed is so much higher than everyone else's. His legs with millions of miles on them are attached to the body of a man whose appetite for championships is that of a starving fat guy left alone at an All-You-Can-Eat fish fry.
An aside: A couple weeks ago, I mentioned to my friend Nick that I think Bryant's draft position in the 1996 draft in the #13 slot is the biggest steal of any draft in NBA history, even moreso than Jordan "falling" to the Bulls at 3 the year he came out. Consider the two players drafted ahead of Jordan- Hakeem and Sam Bowie (can't blame the Rockets for selecting a 7 foot athletic guy who can do everything) vs. the last 6 guys who were picked ahead of Bryant in 1996: Lorenzen Wright (of course to the Clippers), Kerry Kittles, Samaki Walker, Erick Dampier, Todd Fuller (who the hell is he? - here is who "he" is, in case you are interested.) and Vitaly Potapenko. When Erick Dampier is the best player picked in the same range of a draft, you know you're talking about a disasterously fantastic deal the Lakers got to get Bryant- traded to LA after being drafted by the Charlotte Hornets.
Back to the point. With this being Phil Jackson's supposed last hurrah, I think Bryant and company will send Phil out a winner.
This above series would be being played while I am in Vegas for my Vegas VI trip. I hope to see the beginning of what could be an amazing Finals matchup. I hope I'm wrong about the Bulls not making it this far.
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