In the world of wagering, the best investors are encouraged not to celebrate or dwell on the bet that was made before, but rather learn from it and move on to the next one.
While that's all fine and dandy, I cannot say that all bets are created equal, even the ones that pay out the same. Don't follow? Well, sometimes, there's certain wagers you make that you have a little more conviction behind, or playing on a strong hunch that very few others have.
On the other hand, there are also those wagers you make where you regret it after the first drive, when the team who you took 7 points for allows several key third down conversions, including on a touchdown pass where the quarterback is in the grasp of the defender but still musters enough strength to get it to his wide open tight end for an easy score (yes, I'm talking about you Tampa Bay).
Without further ado, here are my favorite (and not-so-favorite) wagers made through the first 108 games of the NFL season:
Best Reads (like my favorite book, 1984)
5. Denver -7 vs. Baltimore (Week 1): Game 1 of the season featured a rematch of a thrilling AFC Divisional Round match-up between the Broncos and the Ravens. The Ravens were featuring a different attack (absent Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta) and several familiar faces missing from their defense (Ray Lewis and Ed Reed). Meanwhile, Peyton Manning was about to show the world just how dominating he could be, even at his advanced age. After a sluggish first half in which he "only" threw two touchdown passes, Peyton more than doubled that in the second half on his way to a seven-touchdown performance. In regards to my wager, it wasn't large, but it felt good to start the year off on a solid note with a solid read on the game pre-snap.
4. Cleveland at Baltimore, Under 44 (Week 2): Note that this will likely not be the last AFC North contest I analyze - I have some sort of hard-on for them this season, as if I have a few futures on the teams in the division or something. With this particular match-up, I was intrigued at the high posted total, inflated likely to the throttling the Ravens' secondary took in Week 1. My thought was that the Ravens would be playing with a chip on their shoulder and focus a little more on the defensive end in their first divisional game, with the Browns' offense usually a good recipe for a struggling defense. The score at the half (6-0 Browns) left plenty of margin for error, which luckily was not needed as the Ravens notched the only two scores of the second half (both touchdowns) to help the under come in by a full 24 points.
3. San Francisco -3 at St. Louis (Week 4): Following a couple of complete duds against Seattle and Indianapolis, there was some reason to doubt San Francisco's prospects for success in the 2013 season. The first quarter of this game didn't help squash those doubts. However, Niners got rolling in the second quarter and asserted their will with a formula well-established in the Harbaugh era: a punishing run game and strong defense. After falling behind 3-0 after one, the Niners scored 28 unanswered points and ultimately routed the Rams 35-11. Funny thing about this game: before the season, I looked at this game as a pitfall on the schedule (divisional game on a short week), but ironically felt better about the Niners' chances of winning this game after the second straight blowout loss (home loss to the Colts). Also, another item I took from this game: I completely over-rated the Rams' potential success this year.
2. Jacksonville (Team Total Over 13) at Denver (Week 6): My only regret with this game was that I didn't throw more on it. When I saw that Jacksonville was a 26-27 point underdog to Denver, my interest in the game turned to the posted over/under. The site I use doesn't post totals immediately, so when I figured out that the line was telling me that they were projecting a 40-13 score, I knew right away what angle of the game I wanted to tackle: the Jacksonville team total. Just as Hollywood Henderson proclaimed when saying Terry Bradshaw couldn't spell CAT if you spotted him the C and the A, the Denver defense couldn't stop a team from scoring 13 points if you spotted them the D and the fence.
At the half, Jacksonville scored 12 points (its only touchdown on a pick-6 thrown by Manning). A 3rd-quarter touchdown made this a no-sweat bet. Even though it wasn't the perfect read (I wasn't banking on their defense being responsible for a score), the lack of sweat on this wager made it one of my prouder ones.
1. Cincinnati at Cleveland (+4) (Week 4): Call this the case of Brian v. Twitter Followers of His (worst court-case title ever). With strong conviction, I stated to several of my Twitter buddies that Cleveland was going to take this game against Cincinnati. Like the game mentioned above (Cle/Balt), there was something that stood out about this AFC North line that screamed for me to take a particular side. The week before, Cleveland surprised most people when beating the Vikings with their third-string quarterback behind center. People thought that Cleveland was tanking when it traded its 2012 first-round pick Trent Richardson away to the Indianapolis Colts for their first round pick in 2014, even though there's been little evidence to suggest that Richardson is even worth a first-round pick (given his pathetic yards per carry and lack of explosive runs). Cleveland led throughout and won straight up 17-6. While I assume most of my buddies lost money on this game, I was vindicated by the Browns' defense - only 269 yards allowed on 62 plays - and efficient-enough offense.
Worst Reads (like anything else I read while in British Literature)
5. San Francisco at Tennessee (+3.5) (Week 7): Never, ever, ever, ever, ever was Tennessee seriously in this game. The final score of 31-17 doesn't show how easily the Niners won this one. San Francisco treated the Titans like a rag doll much like they did to the Rams and Texans previously. I didn't feel as bad about this bad read given that the Niners are my boys. But man, was this a brutal misread.
4. Indianapolis at San Diego (SD Team total of 26.5) (Week 6): I knew there was a little risk to buying the SD total up a few points so that I could win a higher amount than I was risking. However, I had no chance of winning this one. San Diego won this one by a couple of scores and only failed on the bet by 7.5 points. Why do I assess it as a bad read then? A day before, I conversed with a friend on Twitter, saying that I liked San Diego in this game (which he agreed with). Instead of going with that, I decided to be cute and do the team total. I knew this bet was screwed when San Diego netted only 10 points despite time-consuming drives of 6:06 and 7:57. This dick-teasing continued with field goal drives in the second-half of almost equal length (5:51 and 9:09). Maybe this wasn't so much of a bad read as it was San Diego not closing off drives, but the fact that I was seriously considering San Diego in this game makes it a bad read of which bet to make.
3. Carolina at Tampa Bay +7 (Week 8): This game is fresh in my mind, so I didn't want to overblow it and put this at #1 - plus I still don't think it was my worst read. As many may know, I like to bet on bad teams from time to time, under the premise that they've gotten so bad that the point spreads have over-adjusted greatly for their sucktitude. In the situation described above, I certainly didn't like my prospects going forward in the game, confirmed by Carolina scoring on their second drive in equally easy fashion. However, with the half score only being a 14-6 deficit, I still felt positive about it. The Panthers quickly quelled those feelings, with 17 unanswered points as they cruised to a win. Only a late touchdown prevented this from looking worse than it actually was. Tampa Bay was officially put on my shit list with this performance. A game too late.
2. San Francisco +3 at Seattle (Week 2): In the Harbaugh era, the 49ers haven't had many opportunities for revenge. This was arguably their second opportunity (with the first being in 2012 when getting a chance to face the NY Giants a season after losing to them in overtime in the NFC Championship game). This one, while on a smaller scale, was much more embarrassing in terms of how easily Seattle throttled the Niners in Week 16 of the 2012 season (a 42-13 trouncing on national TV). With this line of thinking, I thought that the Niners would be more focused and get their act together. Boy, was I wrong. Only three points and 227 yards gained later (in comparison to 29 Seattle points and 314 total yards), was I way wrong. The only positive part of this bet? The fact I forgot to hit submit on the bet before the game. I still count it in my record and +/- for the year, as it was an intended bet.
1. NY Jets at Atlanta -9.5 (Week 5): Spotting a team with a fantastic defense almost 10 points while your own defense has enough holes to make Swiss cheese blush, yeah, let's take the team "that's due." Surely, the previous year's #1 seed in the NFC playoffs wouldn't fall to 1-4, including back-to-back losses at home where the team has thrived in the Matt Ryan era. This is the day they turn it around, the lower-IQ portion of my brain exclaimed before hitting submit on this brutally bad bet. Yes, the Falcons did have a 4-point lead briefly in the second quarter, but the memory of that was erased quickly thanks to back-to-back Jets drives that ended in Geno Smith passing touchdowns. I knew this one had no chance after that. This one will be hard to top in the remaining part of the season.
Most Exciting Win:
Nominees: Cincinnati +2.5 against Green Bay (Week 3); San Francisco -5 vs. Green Bay (Week 1)
Winner: New England -2 vs. New Orleans: What is easy to forget about this one - New England was covering most of this game, up until the later stages of the second half when a Saints touchdown put them ahead by 1. After a couple of failed drives and a Saints field goal, the bet seemed in peril when the Saints only needed a first down to seal the game. The Patriots forced the Saints to put, and with just over a minute to travel 70 yards with no timeouts, well...the rest is history. Brady's pass to Thompkins in the left half of the endzone (followed by the all-important point-after) netted me the thrilling cover. And no, not all covers are created equal.
Toughest Loss
Nominees: Green Bay -3 at Baltimore (Week 6); Kansas City -3 vs. Dallas (Week 2)
Winner: Houston +2 vs. Seattle: Houston had this game well-in-hand, going into halftime with a 20-3 lead (pro-football-reference gives Houston a 94.7% to win at that point in the game). As they held to a 20-13 lead with less than 3 minutes left, the suddenly infamous Matt Schaub threw a pick-6 that ultimately led to an overtime, which ultimately led to a very disappointed Brian in his toughest loss of the 2013 to date.
