Highway to Helloween

October 31st, 2009: Oh how I remember it oh so very clear. It was a sunny fall morning, and I had just placed a bet on Indiana (+17.5) for $100 on my favorite gambling site Bookmaker. I had twisted Tim's arm into betting it with me, so now I was doubly excited to see the fruits of my knowledge grow into profit for the day. I remember betting against Iowa because of their knack for keeping games close, regardless of opponent. Things started great, with Indiana jumping to a 21-7 lead at half on what turned out to be an incredibly windy day at the stadium. The lead peaked at 17 with an Indiana field goal early in the 3rd, but that was when things went completely bonkers. Mind you, I'm being spotted +17.5 so the lead is actually 34.5 (or just under 5 touchdowns). However, 5 touchdowns later, including a 29 yard rushing touchdown with a minute left on 3rd down for Iowa, led to one of the most heartbreaking losses in gambling history for me. Earlier in the week, I nearly suffered a heart attack when Miami (+6) blew a huge lead against New Orleans and ended up losing straight up by 12 after allowing a pick 6 with about a minute or two left. That cost me a ML bet I had on Miami and also a 3-4 team parlay in which the first legs of it already came in.

Lesson of the above story: Gambling is not for the faint of heart.

With that being said, let's see if I can avenge the ghosts of yesteryear and make some money with college football:

College week 9 with picks in (bold)...last week: 1-3 (including Thursday night game), -$125....YTD: 15-12-1, +$66


Mich St (+6.5) at Iowa: Michigan State just keeps on winning, their latest being an impressive comeback against Northwestern on the road. If MSU would have just blown out NU, I might be inclined they'd be in for a let down. However, a team who has done nothing but win so far shouldn't be getting 6.5 points i n a situation like this. I think MSU has a good chance to win this game, so I'll gladly take the points here. I consider this my strong bet of the day. It should be a close game either way and very well could be a defensive-based game.

Arizona (-9) at UCLA: By no means is this me betting against UCLA strictly based on a revenge factor. UCLA clearly did not trust their freshman quarterback against a very talented Oregon team, running the ball 47 times vs. 23 passes in a 60-13 drubbing. Normally when you start trailing by, I don't know, 2-3 scores, you start passing the ball, but not these guys. UCLA's strategy was that of a team that knows it sucks and can't be a two-dimensional offense. Meanwhile, Arizona possesses a top 30 offense and a top 10 defense. The only way AZ doesn't cover here is if they are looking ahead to their game at Stanford next week. I say Arizona shuts down the Bruins by 20.

Oklahoma State/Kansas State (Over 67): OK St. enters the game as the 2nd highest scoring team in the nation (48.3 points per game) while yielding 30.6 points and near the bottom of college football in passing yards allowed (286). KSU puts up 34 a game themselves while allowing a more modest 26/game. However, their 428 yards allowed/game suggest that Ok St. should be able to move the ball, with or without their top receiver. I expect this score to be in the high 70s.

I may or may not bet equal amounts on these games. I'll post totals of what I bet on each later tonight. I'm definitely liking Mich St the best. I had an Illinois write up all ready to convince myself to bet them, but (1) it felt like a homer bet, (2) Illinois may be due for a moderate let-down after a convincing homecoming win over Indiana and (3) 17 points is a lot to lay on a team that is fairly mediocre offensively.

Let's hope to avoid the Helloween misfortune from last year and make some money.

By the way, I'm going as Brett Favre to a costume party. I haven't decided yet about any of my decisions once I get to the party regarding food, alcohol consumption and whether I am going to textually harass anyone. Just assume the answer to all of those would be what you would expect.

Peace.

Would you....

Go on a trip by yourself, with it being Vegas out of all places? While I will be having some friends going the day before me and we should be spending some time together, for the majority of the trip I will be at the sports book and eateries by myself wandering the strip and downing 7 and 7s and assorted mixed drinks, assuming Faderoff doesn't go on the trip.

I haven't officially booked the trip yet, but it's a formality. I need a weekend away from this town, and I feel like a trip to Vegas where I could essentially spend 2/3s of the time alone might actually be a blessing. I've never gone on a big trip in my life alone and still don't do a lot of social things alone (like going to the movies for example). My Vegas cohorts are going to the clubs there several/all of the nights, and maybe it's just me, but I get nothing out of spending $30 for cover and $10/beer to see a bunch of asshole yuppies talk about their sexual conquests and how big of whores they are (and yes, whore can apply to man as well). Also, I am not calling my friends who are going whores, unless of course they are asshole yuppies that talk about their sexual conquests.

I can't wait for Vegas, and in a weird way can't wait for some time alone and away from everything. Not that I hate life here, I just need a change of scenery. Who knows, maybe I'll have one or two Vegas moments that just stay there.

Vegas: A weekend get-away that can be enjoyed with 20 people or alone

2010-2011 NBA predictions/ day 1 bet

Opening bet of the day: Houston/LA Under 195( $44 to win $40): Kobe injury and limited minutes (30 max), Yao adding a defensive presence for about 24 mins and the distraction of the ring ceremony for the Lakers should keep this game close and likely low scoring. Six of their last eight, including a few playoff games, have gone under the total.

Enjoy these predictions and feel to add some of your own...

(1) LeBron reveals he is a woman and leads the NY Liberty to a championship.
(2) Kevin Durant breaks his leg tripping over a Dwight Howard free throw that lands near the Thunder bench.
(3) Chris Bosh gets home sick, refuses to leave Canada following Miami's first game in Toronto. Toronto offers 10 of Jose Bautista's home runs in exchange.
(4) As he leads the NBA in scoring, Brian Scalabrine starts up a Boston Celtics cheerleading squad composed entirely of curly-haired gingers.
(5) Allen Iverson accidently attends several practices for his Turkish basketball squad, causing him to be fined 5000 Turkish lira.
(6) Inspired by all the bad records Brett Favre has set this season, Don Nelson comes out of retirement to coach Cleveland, Minnesota, Golden State and New Jersey simultaneously to expand on his career loss record as coach.
(7) Locks of Love refuses the hair donation of Joakim Noah, to the delight of leukemia patients that'd rather be bald.
(8) Shawn Kemp comes out of retirement and has a kid with Eva Longoria. NBA scorekeepers give Tony Parker the assist.
(9) To pass the time before he gets traded, Carmelo Anthony puts the "high" in "Mile High" and is seen watching Scooby Doo cartoons on his I-phone and eating family-sized bag of Cheetos during halftime and TV timeouts.
(10) Blake Griffin only averages 5 points a game due to his unfortunate ability to get lost inside of Baron Davis' beard. Clippers soon learn that's where many of their wins have been hiding, but do nothing about it.

Monday musings and pick

Random Monday musings:

If Brett Favre plays through this injury, this cements him as a "me-first" athlete. Dude could barely walk and got diagnosed with something fractured in his ankle. I honestly believe Tavarus would be a better option for next week, no joke. We haven't seen him play in a few years, but right now Favre is just gonna hurt his team if she stays out there. I just realized I typed she but don't feel like correcting it.

If Big Ben was black, would Pittsburgh have warmed up so quickly to him following his 4-game suspension following his discretions in a Georgia bar with a female? I'm normally not the first one to bring up race in a situation, but do you think Gilbert Arenas is gonna get a standing ovation when/if he starts playing for the Wizards in the NBA? Granted some of this might be apples and oranges, but you gotta wonder why women were cheering him. I sound like a neo-conservative with these rants here, but just something to think about.

Vegas is the best place on Earth. What other place in the world can you lose a grand, forget about everything that happened and pay for a hotel you never use, all the while enjoying every minute of the above? Only the greatest place in the world. I hope to have a new phone in a few weeks to let you loyal followers of said blog in on a Brian Bolek weekend in Vegas.

San Fran plays Denver over in London next week. I hope the game ends in a tie and Europe tells the NFL that they no longer want to host NFL games. Also, I predict Singletary will be "left behind" and encouraged to suck at coaching a different brand of football and on a different continent.

Pick of the day: Dallas (-3/3.5) over NYG- The desperate team wins here by a couple scores. Dallas 34-23. I hope to get the line at -3 but we'll see. My winning NFL week is once again dependent on my MNF showing, which I have lost the past two weeks. 3-2, $40 yesterday.

Have a good evening my people.

I'm Charlie Murphy bitch/Week 7 pickickicks

Eddie Murphy- Quit fucking around and come back to your raunchy hysterical stand-up.

I need to sleep more...but sleep is for the weak. I'm watching Charlie Murphy right now- sadly he is the best Murphy (ok, maybe the only one) doing stand-up right now. His best work was with Chappelle, especially the Prince skit. We need the 80s Eddie Murphy to return back for one more epic show and let today's generation know what they were missing when Raw was made.

Anyways, I digress.

Picks for Sunday, with chosen lines highlighed in bolded ( ):

Last week, including MNF: 2-2 (-$12)
NFL Year to date: 19-14, +$185

Cincy at Atlanta (-3.5): I projected this line a lot higher (-5) than it started at, and now I'm seeing Atlanta down to -3 at some online books. Philly made Atlanta their beotch last week, but that's bound to happen every now and then on the road, especially when they've played an unbalanced 4 road games (2-2 record) vs. 2 home games (both wins). Cincy hasn't done a ton to impress me so far aside from surviving an offensive struggle vs. Baltimore. Palmer has been hit or miss this year. I'll go with my gut and say he misses this week. Only thing that worries me here is Cincy coming off of a bye, but I think the home cooking treats Atlanta right. Atlanta 28-17.

Washington (+3) at Chicago: Let the Jay Cutler concussion watch continue. Washington has knocked out a few players the past couple weeks (Dallas Clark last week, Finley & Rodgers the week before, among others) and very well could add Jay-walker to that list. Martz says they should have ran it more last week and will probably say the same thing again this week when he has another week of 70%+ passing. The only way Chi wins this week is on special teams. Wash has played tough in just about every game this year, either winning or being within 3 points of doing so in 5 of 6 games this year. I say McNabb leads them to a straight-up win, 21-17.

Cleveland (+13) at New Orleans: Looks like a similar spot as a few weeks ago when NO was spotting a similar amount against a team with a rookie QB and an offense whose strength is around the running game. NO won their first game ATS last week with a convincing win against Tampa, but Tampa has no run game (or didn't have much else) to compete with NO. Cleveland has competed and had a chance to win every game they played except last week, when they failed to cover the same spread as this week when Big Ben (fuck him, I'm calling him this even as he says he doesn't wanna call him that- when you can't control your wanker and get NFL suspension because of it, you don't get to tell us what to call you) threw a late TD pass to lead to the cover. This looks like a 24-17 game for NO.

StL at Tampa (-3): Tampa is coming off a rough home loss to the team highlighted above (NO). StL is 3-3, coming off an upset victory over San Diego (as highlighted here in the B-Blog). So why the Tampa pick here? Tampa is a lot better than they showed themselves to be last week. If not this week, I see them featuring LaGarrette Blount at running back very soon. Dude would have been a solid draft pick if not for his incident against Boise to open last year's college season. Meanwhile, St. Louis has laid a few turds on the road this year against Oakland and St Louis (covering against the former, destroyed against the latter). I think the Bucs continue this trend and win by 7-10, let's say 24-14.

New England at San Diego (-2.5): Note to gamblers- when 9 out of 10 of your friends just absolutely love a certain line, you're probably better off picking the brain of that 1 person who sees something different than what the 9 others believe. This line has the NE lovers coming out in full-bloom, much like we did (yes, I say we cuz I bet NE) when they faced NYJ in week 2 following a less than impressive opener against Baltimore while NE beat down on Cincy. We all know what happened to NE that game. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar outcome this week with the Pats going west facing a team that is the epitome of Two Face. Terrible on the road, great at home. Granted, those two home wins were against Jax and Ariz, but it's easy to forget about SD having the top offense and defense in terms of yardage when their special teams have been terrible to say the least. People are worried about SD's injuries, but with Gates playing, that's all I need to know. Rivers will make the most out of those around him (I'm talking to you Patrick Crayton) and lead SD to a much needed win.


And as I close this post, Chappelle Show closes my night. What a great ending to a night.

Let's get back to some winning this week.

Week 8 college picks - Time to get back on the gravy train

Even a shit-faced Belushi would be coherent enough to make these bets.

Another week, another college football write-up day, with bets bolded in ( ):

Last week posted picks: 2-1; year to date: 14-10-1 (took a shot on UCLA last night foolishly, oops), +$126

Illinois/Indiana (under 55.5): Illinois is a run-first team, 29th in the nation with 200 yards/game on the ground, with passing near the bottom at 136/game. While Indiana's offense and defense tend to lend itself towards overs (5th nationally in passing yards, bottom third in the nation in yards allowed), Illinois will dictate the pace of this game with their running and surprisingly sharp defense (19th in the nation in yards allowed). A quick look at the weather report also shows 20mph winds around gametime, so if that's the case, Indiana's passing game may not be as strong as week's past. I see this ending in the mid 40s with Illinois winning about 27-17.

Wisconsin at Iowa (-6, hoping to get at 5.5 or 5): It seems like a high number to give a team like Wisconsin who just beat the number 1 team in the nation. I believe Wisconsin fed off of the emotion of the home crowd (I think OSU is still a better team than Wisconsin) and a let-down in a game like this on the road is natural. Iowa is starting out its Big Ten season in style, beating up on Penn St and knocking out Denard & UM on the road last week. Iowa's won 8 of the last 10 meetings. A few weeks back, UW lost to MSU on the road by 10- that's where I put Iowa at for this week, 10-14 point win.

LSU at Auburn (under 51.5): No question that Les Miles is as big of a maniac of a coach as there is in the coaching ranks of any sport. One thing he knows how to do is win though. Statistically speaking, LSU is top 10 nationally in passing yards and rushing yards allowed (3rd overall). Being a road underdog won't intimidate Miles and his squad, who have seemed to play to the level of their competition. Auburn's stout offense hasn't faced a defense like this yet. And Auburn's defense, towards the middle of the pack in the nation, may not have its defensive weakness exposed as LSU is terrible in the passing game and 92nd in the nation in total yards. I expect this to be a defensive battle between two teams fighting to stay in the championship game conversation, around the lines of 20-16.

As you can see, this is the first week where I looked at some statistics in my bets. We'll see how well this works. Bet at your own risk, but also remember....it's not gambling when you know you are gonna win. So let's do it.

Holding off on betting game 6 of the Yanks series tonight. My obvious rooting interest in NYY, plus the risk of $80 going down from earlier in the year if they lose tonight, is enough for me. I would probably bet on Cliff Lee in game 7 if there is one if only to pseudo-hedge my World Series bet.

I think Phillies force a game 7 tomorrow.

Nobody's perfect - especially you

But especially me. Not anymore anyways. Philadelphia ended my mouth-watering, panty-dropping perfect baseball gambling record for the 2010 by falling to the Giants last night, ending my streak to start the playoffs at 9 in a row. Unfortunately, due to school interfering with my Tu-Th television watching, I wasn't able to catch anything but the bottom of the ninth at Oliver's (a local bar), only to watch the Wizard of Oswalt allow former Sox infielder Juan Uribe to follow the yellow brick road to a game 4 victory.

I'm not sure if any of you even follow baseball playoffs when local teams are out of the race. I know I find it hard to watch baseball when my teams are not involved - unless of course money is on the line in some capacity. I could watch football games without money on the line, if only for the simple fact that football wipes their asses with other professional sports in terms of entertainment. I'm sure others would contend, and with good reason, that hockey is their favorite form of sports entertainment. Hockey has captured the attention of Chicago the past couple of years and is an excellent sport to watch in person. I got into it a little bit last year but would not consider myself a fan of the Hawks, but I was definitely happy for all of my Hawks friends (Luzz-man, Jay, my cousin Tony, Hurley, etc.) when they did win, as I know they were followers of the team during the Dark Ages (mid 90s-mid 2000s).

All this being said, I still think football is the best sport- although with their outlawing of hitting people and eventual evolution towards turning into a flag football league, it soon may dissipate down the sport rankings if it keeps up this pattern. Football without hitting is like a TV with no electricity, a cookie without the milk, a crackpipe without the crack. I understand player safety must be a concern to the NFL, but have they ever thought that these folks who are being told to avoid the hard hits might be putting themselves more at risk for injuries themselves through their half-assed hits? I could see some of the stronger receivers and runners taking advantage of the pussification of the NFL by lowering their helmets into defensive players even moreso. When these guys became players, they knew the inherent risks of the sport, which include concussions, leg/ACL injuries, etc. And oftentimes, you'll see these players with much shorter lifespans than other professions. However, people have always known this, and the idea of the sport changing now, while beneficial to the players, would ultimately end with the diminishing of the sport itself.

At least that what B-Bo Knows. But who knows if I'm right. After all, I'm not perfect.