Week 9 Matchups by the Numbers

Adding Yards/Pass (YPA), Yards/Carry (YPC) and Turnovers/Game (TOs/game) to Weekly Categories

Cincy (-2.5) at Miami (Thursday Night)

Cin O: 5.7 yards/play (7.3 YPA/3.6 YPC); 64.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Mia D: 5.2 yards/play (6.2 YPA/3.8 YPC); 68.4 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game

Mia O: 4.9 yards/play (5.3 YPA/4.1 YPC); 63.4 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
Cin D: 4.8 yards/play (5.4 YPA/3.8 YPC); 66.8 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game


Atlanta at Carolina (-7.5)

Atl O: 5.7 yards/play (6.6 YPA/3.4 YPC); 64 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Car D: 4.9 yards/play (5.6 YPA/3.7 YPC); 61.3 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game

Car O: 5.1 yards/play (6.2 YPA/4.0 YPC); 64.4 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Atl D: 5.9 yards/play (6.9 YPA/4.6 YPC); 61.1 plays/game; 0.9 TOs/game


Minnesota at Dallas (-10)

Min O: 5.1 yards/play (5.4 YPA/4.6 YPC); 59.7 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
Dal D: 6.0 yards/play (6.9 YPA/4.4 YPC); 70.3 plays/game; 2.4 TOs/game

Dal O: 5.6 yards/play (6.7 YPA/3.7 YPC); 60.6 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Min D: 5.5 yards/play (6.8 YPA/3.8 YPC); 72.4 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game


New Orleans (-5.5) at NY Jets

NO O: 5.9 yards/play (7.5 YPA/3.4 YPC); 66.7 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
NYJ D: 4.8 yards/play (5.9 YPA/3.1 YPC); 65.0 plays/game; 0.6 TOs/game

NYJ O: 5.0 yards/play (5.8 YPA/4.0 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
NO D: 5.4 yards/play (5.8 YPA/4.8 YPC); 61.3 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game


Tennessee (NL) at St. Louis

Ten O: 5.0 yards/play (5.9 YPA/3.8 YPC); 62.6 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
StL D: 5.7 yards/play (7.0 YPA/4.1 YPC); 60.5 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game

StL O: 4.8 yards/play (5.5 YPA/3.6 YPC); 63.8 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Ten D: 5.3 yards/play (6.2 YPA/4.2 YPC); 63.3 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game


Kansas City (-3) at Buffalo

KC O: 4.9 yards/play (5.4 YPA/4.2 YPC); 67.8 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
Buf D: 5.3 yards/play (6.3 YPA/3.9 YPC); 71.9 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game

Buf O: 4.7 yards/play (5.2 YPA/4.0 YPC); 70.8 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
KC D: 5.0 yards/play (5.1 YPA/4.7 YPC); 62.3 plays/game; 2.5 TOs/game


San Diego (pick'em) at Washington

SD O: 6.1 yards/play (7.9 YPA/3.8 YPC); 65.9 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Wsh D: 6.0 yards/play (7.3 YPA/4.4 YPC); 65.7 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game

Wsh O: 5.7 yards/play (6.2 YPA/5.0 YPC); 69.1 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
SD D: 6.3 yards/play (7.2 YPA/4.8 YPC); 59.9 plays/game; 0.6 TOs/game


Tampa Bay at Seattle (-17)

TB O: 4.5 yards/play (4.9 YPA/3.8 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Sea D: 4.6 yards/play (4.9 YPA/4.0 YPC); 63.5 plays/game; 2.6 TOs/game

Sea O: 5.5 yards/play (6.6 YPA/4.4 YPC); 61.6 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game
TB D: 5.3 yards/play (6.4 YPA/3.7 YPC); 63.6 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game


Baltimore (-2.5) at Cleveland

Balt O: 4.9 yards/play (6.2 YPA/2.8 YPC); 67.7 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Cle D: 4.6 yards/play (5.2 YPA/3.7 YPC); 70.4 plays/game; 1.1 TOs/game

Cle O: 4.8 yards/play (5.2 YPA/3.9 YPC); 66.4 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Balt D: 5.4 yards/play (6.5 YPA/3.8 YPC); 63.4 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game


Pittsburgh at New England (-7)

Pit O: 5.2 yards/play (6.2 YPA/3.3 YPC); 62.1 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
NE D: 4.9 yards/play (5.4 YPA/4.2 YPC); 71.3 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game

NE O: 4.7 yards/play (5.1 YPA/4.2 YPC); 70.2 plays/game; 1.1 TOs/game
Pit D: 4.9 yards/play (5.8 YPA/4.0 YPC); 61.4 plays/game; 0.7 TOs./game


Philadelphia (NL) at Oakland

Phil O: 5.9 yards/play (6.6 YPA/5.0 YPC); 67.8 plays/game; 1.8 TOs/game
Oak D: 5.1 yards/play (6.2 YPA/3.6 YPC); 64.4 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game

Oak O: 5.2 yards/play (5.6 YPA; 4.8 YPC); 60.7 plays/game; 1.7 TOs/game
Phil D: 5.5 yards/play (6.6 YPA; 3.7 YPC); 72.5 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game


Indianapolis (-2.5) at Houston (Sunday Night)

Ind O: 5.5 yards/play (6.2 YPA/4.5 YPC); 63 plays/game; 0.8 TOs/game
Hou D: 4.8 yards/play (5.4 YPA/4.1 YPC); 56.3 plays/game; 0.7 TOs/game

Hou O: 5.3 yards/play (5.9 YPA/4.5 YPC); 71.4 plays/game; 2.3 TOs/game
Ind D: 5.5 yards/play (6.2 YPA/4.5 YPC); 64.0 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game


Chicago at Green Bay (-10.5)

Chi O: 6.1 yards/play (7.0 YPA/4.7 YPC); 60.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
GB D: 5.5 yards/play (6.5 YPA/3.7 YPC); 60.7 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game

GB O: 6.5 yards/play (7.8 YPA/4.8 YPC); 67.6 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Chi D: 6.2 yards/play (8.1 YPA/4.0 YPC); 63 plays/game; 2.6 TOs/game

Best And Worst Bets of NFL Thru 7 1/13 weeks

In the world of wagering, the best investors are encouraged not to celebrate or dwell on the bet that was made before, but rather learn from it and move on to the next one.

While that's all fine and dandy, I cannot say that all bets are created equal, even the ones that pay out the same. Don't follow? Well, sometimes, there's certain wagers you make that you have a little more conviction behind, or playing on a strong hunch that very few others have.

On the other hand, there are also those wagers you make where you regret it after the first drive, when the team who you took 7 points for allows several key third down conversions, including on a touchdown pass where the quarterback is in the grasp of the defender but still musters enough strength to get it to his wide open tight end for an easy score (yes, I'm talking about you Tampa Bay).

Without further ado, here are my favorite (and not-so-favorite) wagers made through the first 108 games of the NFL season:

Best Reads (like my favorite book, 1984)

5. Denver -7 vs. Baltimore (Week 1): Game 1 of the season featured a rematch of a thrilling AFC Divisional Round match-up between the Broncos and the Ravens. The Ravens were featuring a different attack (absent Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta) and several familiar faces missing from their defense (Ray Lewis and Ed Reed). Meanwhile, Peyton Manning was about to show the world just how dominating he could be, even at his advanced age. After a sluggish first half in which he "only" threw two touchdown passes, Peyton more than doubled that in the second half on his way to a seven-touchdown performance. In regards to my wager, it wasn't large, but it felt good to start the year off on a solid note with a solid read on the game pre-snap.

4. Cleveland at Baltimore, Under 44 (Week 2): Note that this will likely not be the last AFC North contest I analyze - I have some sort of hard-on for them this season, as if I have a few futures on the teams in the division or something. With this particular match-up, I was intrigued at the high posted total, inflated likely to the throttling the Ravens' secondary took in Week 1. My thought was that the Ravens would be playing with a chip on their shoulder and focus a little more on the defensive end in their first divisional game, with the Browns' offense usually a good recipe for a struggling defense. The score at the half (6-0 Browns) left plenty of margin for error, which luckily was not needed as the Ravens notched the only two scores of the second half (both touchdowns) to help the under come in by a full 24 points.

3. San Francisco -3 at St. Louis (Week 4): Following a couple of complete duds against Seattle and Indianapolis, there was some reason to doubt San Francisco's prospects for success in the 2013 season. The first quarter of this game didn't help squash those doubts. However, Niners got rolling in the second quarter and asserted their will with a formula well-established in the Harbaugh era: a punishing run game and strong defense. After falling behind 3-0 after one, the Niners scored 28 unanswered points and ultimately routed the Rams 35-11. Funny thing about this game: before the season, I looked at this game as a pitfall on the schedule (divisional game on a short week), but ironically felt better about the Niners' chances of winning this game after the second straight blowout loss (home loss to the Colts). Also, another item I took from this game: I completely over-rated the Rams' potential success this year.

2. Jacksonville (Team Total Over 13) at Denver (Week 6):  My only regret with this game was that I didn't throw more on it. When I saw that Jacksonville was a 26-27 point underdog to Denver, my interest in the game turned to the posted over/under. The site I use doesn't post totals immediately, so when I figured out that the line was telling me that they were projecting a 40-13 score, I knew right away what angle of the game I wanted to tackle: the Jacksonville team total. Just as Hollywood Henderson proclaimed when saying Terry Bradshaw couldn't spell CAT if you spotted him the C and the A, the Denver defense couldn't stop a team from scoring 13 points if you spotted them the D and the fence.

At the half, Jacksonville scored 12 points (its only touchdown on a pick-6 thrown by Manning). A 3rd-quarter touchdown made this a no-sweat bet. Even though it wasn't the perfect read (I wasn't banking on their defense being responsible for a score), the lack of sweat on this wager made it one of my prouder ones.

1. Cincinnati at Cleveland (+4) (Week 4): Call this the case of Brian v. Twitter Followers of His (worst court-case title ever). With strong conviction, I stated to several of my Twitter buddies that Cleveland was going to take this game against Cincinnati. Like the game mentioned above (Cle/Balt), there was something that stood out about this AFC North line that screamed for me to take a particular side.  The week before, Cleveland surprised most people when beating the Vikings with their third-string quarterback behind center. People thought that Cleveland was tanking when it traded its 2012 first-round pick Trent Richardson away to the Indianapolis Colts for their first round pick in 2014, even though there's been little evidence to suggest that Richardson is even worth a first-round pick (given his pathetic yards per carry and lack of explosive runs). Cleveland led throughout and won straight up 17-6.  While I assume most of my buddies lost money on this game, I was vindicated by the Browns' defense - only 269 yards allowed on 62 plays - and efficient-enough offense.

Worst Reads (like anything else I read while in British Literature)

5. San Francisco at Tennessee (+3.5) (Week 7): Never, ever, ever, ever, ever was Tennessee seriously in this game. The final score of 31-17 doesn't show how easily the Niners won this one. San Francisco treated the Titans like a rag doll much like they did to the Rams and Texans previously. I didn't feel as bad about this bad read given that the Niners are my boys. But man, was this a brutal misread.

4. Indianapolis at San Diego (SD Team total of 26.5) (Week 6): I knew there was a little risk to buying the SD total up a few points so that I could win a higher amount than I was risking. However, I had no chance of winning this one. San Diego won this one by a couple of scores and only failed on the bet by 7.5 points. Why do I assess it as a bad read then? A day before, I conversed with a friend on Twitter, saying that I liked San Diego in this game (which he agreed with). Instead of going with that, I decided to be cute and do the team total. I knew this bet was screwed when San Diego netted only 10 points despite time-consuming drives of 6:06 and 7:57. This dick-teasing continued with field goal drives in the second-half of almost equal length (5:51 and 9:09). Maybe this wasn't so much of a bad read as it was San Diego not closing off drives, but the fact that I was seriously considering San Diego in this game makes it a bad read of which bet to make.

3. Carolina at Tampa Bay +7 (Week 8): This game is fresh in my mind, so I didn't want to overblow it and put this at #1 - plus I still don't think it was my worst read. As many may know, I like to bet on bad teams from time to time, under the premise that they've gotten so bad that the point spreads have over-adjusted greatly for their sucktitude. In the situation described above, I certainly didn't like my prospects going forward in the game, confirmed by Carolina scoring on their second drive in equally easy fashion. However, with the half score only being a 14-6 deficit, I still felt positive about it. The Panthers quickly quelled those feelings, with 17 unanswered points as they cruised to a win. Only a late touchdown prevented this from looking worse than it actually was. Tampa Bay was officially put on my shit list with this performance. A game too late. 

2. San Francisco +3 at Seattle (Week 2): In the Harbaugh era, the 49ers haven't had many opportunities for revenge. This was arguably their second opportunity (with the first being in 2012 when getting a chance to face the NY Giants a season after losing to them in overtime in the NFC Championship game). This one, while on a smaller scale, was much more embarrassing in terms of how easily Seattle throttled the Niners in Week 16 of the 2012 season (a 42-13 trouncing on national TV). With this line of thinking, I thought that the Niners would be more focused and get their act together. Boy, was I wrong. Only three points and 227 yards gained later (in comparison to 29 Seattle points and 314 total yards), was I way wrong. The only positive part of this bet? The fact I forgot to hit submit on the bet before the game. I still count it in my record and +/- for the year, as it was an intended bet.

1. NY Jets at Atlanta -9.5 (Week 5): Spotting a team with a fantastic defense almost 10 points while your own defense has enough holes to make Swiss cheese blush, yeah, let's take the team "that's due." Surely, the previous year's #1 seed in the NFC playoffs wouldn't fall to 1-4, including back-to-back losses at home where the team has thrived in the Matt Ryan era. This is the day they turn it around, the lower-IQ portion of my brain exclaimed before hitting submit on this brutally bad bet. Yes, the Falcons did have a 4-point lead briefly in the second quarter, but the memory of that was erased quickly thanks to back-to-back Jets drives that ended in Geno Smith passing touchdowns. I knew this one had no chance after that. This one will be hard to top in the remaining part of the season.

Most Exciting Win:

Nominees: Cincinnati +2.5 against Green Bay (Week 3);  San Francisco -5 vs. Green Bay (Week 1)

Winner: New England -2 vs. New Orleans: What is easy to forget about this one - New England was covering most of this game, up until the later stages of the second half when a Saints touchdown put them ahead by 1. After a couple of failed drives and a Saints field goal, the bet seemed in peril when the Saints only needed a first down to seal the game. The Patriots forced the Saints to put, and with just over a minute to travel 70 yards with no timeouts, well...the rest is history. Brady's pass to Thompkins in the left half of the endzone (followed by the all-important point-after) netted me the thrilling cover. And no, not all covers are created equal.

Toughest Loss

Nominees: Green Bay -3 at Baltimore (Week 6); Kansas City -3 vs. Dallas (Week 2)

Winner: Houston +2 vs. Seattle: Houston had this game well-in-hand, going into halftime with a 20-3 lead (pro-football-reference gives Houston a 94.7% to win at that point in the game). As they held to a 20-13 lead with less than 3 minutes left, the suddenly infamous Matt Schaub threw a pick-6 that ultimately led to an overtime, which ultimately led to a very disappointed Brian in his toughest loss of the 2013 to date.

Week 8 Picks Go Here

Week 8 Picks
TB +6.5 (-106) - (1.59 to win 1.50) & TB +7 - (0.55 to win 0.5) - L (-2.14)
Det -3 (-110) - (1.65 to win 1.50) - L (-1.65)
NYG +5.5 (-106) - (1.06 to win 1.0) & ML (+208) - (0.5 to win 1.04) - W (+2.04)
Cle +7.5 (-110) - (1.10 to win 1.0), +7 (+102) - (0.5 to win 0.51) - W & ML (+300) - (0.8 to win 2.4) - L (net of +0.74)
Cin -6 (-110) - (2.20 to win 2.00) - W (+2.00)
Oak +2.5 (-105) - (1.575 to win 1.50) & ML (+118) - (0.5 to win (0.59) - W (+2.09)
Min +3.5 2H (-108) - 1.08 to win 1.00 - L  (-1.08)
Seattle Team Total Under 28.5 - 1.545 to win 1.50 - W (+1.50

(5-4, +3.47)


*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing. 

Week 1: (6-3, +4.14)

Week 2: (4-4, +0.582)

Week 3: (3-3, +0.212)

Week 4: (7-4, +2.955)

Week 5: (4-5, -2.595)

Week 6: (6-4, +2.555)

Week 7: (4-5, +0.32)

Week 8: (5-4, +3.47)

YTD: (39-32, +11.639)


Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)

Fun With Baseball: Franchise Postseason Stats Since 2000

Here's a breakdown of every MLB franchise's record and games played in the post season since 2000 (entering the World Series):

Teams Games Team Wins Team Win % 1 NYY 116 1 NYY 62 1 Mia 0.647059 2 StL 106 2 StL 58 2 CWS 0.631579 3 Bos 67 3 Bos 41 3 Bos 0.61194 4 SF 56 4 SF 34 4 SF 0.607143 5 Det 48 5 Phil 27 5 Phil 0.586957 6 Phil 46 6 Det 25 6 NYM 0.583333 7 LAA 45 7 LAA 21 7 StL 0.54717 8 Atl 39 8 Tex 18 8 NYY 0.534483 9 Oak 37 9 Ariz 16 9 Col 0.533333 10 Tex 34 10 Oak 15 10 Tex 0.529412 11 LAD 33 11 LAD 14 11 Det 0.520833 12 Ariz 32 12 NYM 14 12 Ariz 0.5 13 TB 30 13 Atl 13 13 Pitt 0.5 14 Hou 29 14 TB 13 14 Balt 0.5 15 Min 27 15 Hou 13 15 Sea 0.473684 16 NYM 24 16 CWS 12 16 Cle 0.470588 17 CWS 19 17 Mia 11 17 LAA 0.466667 18 Sea 19 18 Sea 9 18 Hou 0.448276 19 CHC 18 19 Cle 8 19 TB 0.433333 20 Cle 17 20 Col 8 20 LAD 0.424242 21 Mia 17 21 Min 6 21 Oak 0.405405 22 Mil 15 22 CHC 6 22 Mil 0.4 23 Col 15 23 Mil 6 23 Wash 0.4 24 Cin 9 24 Pitt 3 24 Atl 0.333333 25 SD 7 25 Balt 3 25 CHC 0.333333 26 Pitt 6 26 Cin 2 26 Min 0.222222 27 Balt 6 27 Wash 2 27 Cin 0.222222 28 Wash 5 28 SD 1 28 SD 0.142857 29 KC 0 29 KC 0 29 KC N/A 30 Tor 0 30 Tor 0 30 Tor N/A

(Miami stats include time as Florida Marlins)

(Washington stats include time as Montreal Expos)

Fun Notes:

• Florida Marlins are the only team to win a World Series in this time period and have that be the franchise's only postseason wins/appearance. They had 100% of their postseason wins and games in this time period come in 2003, when they won the World Series. 
• If you include the one game playoff in 2012 as a series, Atlanta has lost 9 of its 10 postseason series.
• Detroit has the most playoff wins w/o a World Series title in this time period (25).
• Three teams have more WINS in postseason play than the Cubs and White Sox do TOTAL GAMES...COMBINED in this time frame.
• In its seven ALDS appearances from 2000-2013, Oakland lost in a deciding 5th game in six of them.

NFL Week 8 - Breakdown By The Numbers

Car at TB

Car O: 5.1 yards/play; 64.8 plays/game
TB D: 5.3 yards/play; 63.8 plays/game

TB O: 4.5 yards/play (T-worst); 66.3 plays/game
Car D: 5.0 yards/play; 60.2 plays/game


SF at Jax

SF O: 5.5 yards/play; 61.3 plays/game
Jax D: 5.8 yards/play; 67.1 plays/game

Jax O: 4.5 yards/play (T-worst); 63 plays/game
SF D: 5.1 yards/play; 64.4 plays/game


Cle at KC

Cle O: 4.6 yards/play; 68.4 plays/game
KC D: 4.8 yards/play (T-4); 63.71 plays/game

KC O: 4.9 yards/play; 67.3 plays/game
Cle D: 4.5 yards/play (T-best); 70.3 plays/game


Mia at NE

Mia O: 5.1 yards/play; 60.8 plays/game
NE D: 5.0 yards/play; 70.1 plays/game

NE O: 4.8 yards/play; 71.4 plays/game
Mia D: 5.4 yards/play; 69.5 plays/game


Buf at NO

Buf O: 4.7 yards/play; 71.4 plays/game
NO D: 5.6 yards/play; 60.2 plays/game

NO O: 5.9 yards/play; 67.2 plays/game
Buf D: 5.2 yards/play; 73 plays/game


Dal at Det

Dal O: 5.8 yards/play; 61.3 plays/game
Det D: 6.3 yards/play (2nd worst); 63.1 plays/game

Det O: 5.7 yards/play; 64.7 plays/game
Dal D: 5.7 yards/play; 69.1 plays/game


NYG at Phil

NYG O: 5.3 yards/play; 62.1 plays/game
Phil D: 5.7 yards/play; 72.7 plays/game

Phil O: 6.2 yards/play (3rd); 69.1 plays/game
NYG D: 5.1 yards/play; 71.4 plays/game


Pit at Oak

Pit O: 5.4 yards/play; 61 plays/game
Oak D: 5.3 yards/play; 63.8 plays/game

Oak O: 5.3 yards/play; 61 plays/game
Pit D: 5.0 yards/play; 61.8 plays/game


NYJ at Cincy

NYJ O: 5.1 yards/play; 66.9 plays/game
Cin D: 5.0 yards/play; 67 plays/game

Cin O: 5.5 yards/play; 65.6 plays/game
NYJ D: 4.6 yards/play (3rd); 66.3 plays/game


Atl at Ari

Atl O: 6.1 yards/play; 61.5 plays/game
Ari D: 5.2 yards/play; 66.8 plays/game

Ari O: 4.9 yards/play; 63.0 plays/game
Atl D: 5.8 yards/play; 62.8 plays/game


Wash at Den

Wash O: 6.0 yards/play; 69 plays/game
Den D: 5.9 yards/play; 67.4 plays/game

Den O: 6.6 yards/play (best); 71.2 plays/game
Wash D: 6.1 yards/play(4th worst); 63.3 plays/game


GB at Min

GB O: 6.5 yards/play (2nd); 66.7 plays/game
Min D: 5.4 yards/play; 72.3 plays/game

Min O: 5.1 yards/play; 62.5 plays/game
GB D: 5.4 yards/play; 63.7 plays/game


Sea at StL

Sea O: 5.7 yards/play; 64.7 plays/game
StL D: 5.9 yards/play; 63.4 plays/game

StL O: 4.8 yards/play; 62.7 plays/game
Sea D: 4.5 yards/play (T-best); 62.4 plays/game

Playoff Payoff: Will the New NCAA Committee Process Work for College Football?

While many college football fans are giddy for the BCS system of deciding a national title to be over and done with at the end of this season thanks to a 4-team playoff, they should be very careful on what they ask for.

Isn't the Playoff Committee that has been assembled just a smaller version of the voters/computers that have helped decide the title game in the BCS era? The 13-person committee consists of former players, coaches, and even a former Secretary of State. Do you honestly think that fans of teams in the BCS hunt are going to believe in the legitimacy of these people, who I presume have either all gone to universities with football or are currently in a position of power at an NCAA institution (or at the very least, have had a strong rooting interest in a particular team)?

For instance, one of the committee members is Tom Osborne. Do you think a fan of a PAC-12 team (let's say Oregon) will respect the opinion of the committee if one year, Nebraska (Osborne's former team) somehow edges out the Ducks for a chance to play in the playoff?

And what about the 5th best team in the nation (or 9th best in an 8-team playoff, etc.)? You think fans of bubble teams and the media talk too much/complain about the teams that don't make the March Madness tourney...and multiply it by about a hundred. With March Madness, 68 teams out of 351 NCAA teams make "the playoffs", including 37 "at-large" teams who fail to win their conference tournament (or conference in the case of the Ivy League), you have 19.3% of teams represented in the tourney....and you still have people complaining about a 19-14 team not making the tournament over a 21-12 team with perhaps a slightly less strong resume. Many fans don't subscribe to my theory of "if you've put yourself in that position of being considered a 'bubble team', then you can't complain if they don't make it," and I don't see that changing for the football version, which will initially have 4 of its 124 teams (as of this year), or just over 3% of the teams. Even if you make it 8 teams, it's still a significantly smaller percentage of teams in there as there are in March Madness. And w/ NCAA football arguably having a stronger hold over the country than basketball, imagine how ugly some of those message boards (which are ugly enough without the playoff) will be if the playoff committee slights their team's prospects of a chance at the BCS title. Imagine how much time ESPN and other sports media organizations will spend on the teams that didn't make it.

If we use the final records of teams in the top 15 of the BCS standings (the final standings before the bowl games) as a basis for the teams likely to be considered in the Top-8 discussion (assuming they eventually go to the 8-team format), here are the records of all the teams from the past 5 years (before their eventual bowl game):

2008: 12-0 teams (2)*; 12-1 (3); 11-1 (4); 11-2 (1); 10-2 (2); 9-3 (3) - 9 teams with 1 loss or less
2009**: 13-0 teams (3); 12-0 (2); 12-1 (1); 11-2 (1); 10-2 (5); 9-3 (3) - 6 teams with 1 loss or less
2010: 13-0 teams (1); 12-0 (2); 12-1 (1); 11-1 (5); 11-2 (2); 10-2 (3); 9-3 (1) - 9 teams with 1 loss or less
2011: 13-0 teams (1); 11-1 (4); 11-2 (2); 10-2 (5); 10-3 (2); 9-3 (1) - 5 teams with 1 loss or less
2012: 12-0 teams (2)***; 12-1 (1); 11-1 (3); 11-2 (3); 10-2 (5); 9-3 (1) - 6 teams with 1 loss or less

(stats above do not include any teams with these records outside of the top 15 of the final BCS standings before the bowls)

*neither of these teams (Utah and Boise State) even finished in the top 6 of the rankings and had no shot in hell of making the BCS title game.
**Of the 5 undefeated teams at the end of the year, only Alabama and Texas - the title game participants - received 1st place votes at the end of the season. 
***Ohio State was not eligible for the title game due to NCAA sanctions 

Week 7 Picks Go Here

Week 7 Picks (So Far)
Ariz +6 (-107) - 2.14 to win 2.0 - L
Sea/Ariz Under 38 (+135) - 0.5 to win 0.675 - L
Cin +2.5 (+100) - 1.0 to win 1.0 & +2.5 (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.0 (total of 2.05 to win 2.0
Car -6 (-110) - 1.1 to win 1.0 & -7 (-113) - 1.13 to win 1.0)
Mia -7 (-120) - 1.8 to win 1.5
Ten +3.5 (-110) - 2.2 to win 2.0
Indy +6.5 (-108) - 2.16 to win 2.0
Den/Indy Under 55 (-104) - 1.04 to win 1.0
Min/NYG Under 48 (-109) - 2.18 to win 2.0

(4-5, +0.32)


*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing. 

Week 1: (6-3, +4.14)

Week 2: (4-4, +0.582)
Week 3: (3-3, +0.212)
Week 4: (7-4, +2.955)
Week 5: (4-5, -2.595)
Week 6: (6-4, +2.555)
Week 7: (4-5, +0.32)

YTD: (34-28, +8.169)


Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)