Vegas V: the Aftermath

Breakdown of my daily wins/losses and my reactions to each bet:

Friday:

Horse racing ($-40): I won one or two horses, but was largely unsuccessful in my first round of Vegas betting. I did hit a $20 exacta (unboxed) at 9/2 ($90 profit), but otherwise it was toilet water money.

Basketball: (-$180): I didn't bother watching my Orlando -14 against Toronto (Toronto upset), but did take the time to watch much of my Sacramento money line bet (+270) against Phoenix. While Sac stayed in the game for much of the game, Nash's ability to destruct crappy teams with his ball movement was too much to overcome.

Poker: (-$65): My first and only session of poker was a $45 buy in with an optional $20 rebuy. I was eliminated just before the 2nd break, and never really stood much of a chance. I think I play too conservative for larger tournaments.

Slot: (-$5): The only money I risked of my own on a slot machine was during the poker break. 2 minutes into it, the $5 was lost.

Total Friday summary: -$250, prognosis bad.

Satuday

College football: (-$230)
Bet 1: Northwestern +10 vs Iowa....before entering the Bellagio (where I did all of my gambling and eating) for my daily brunch, I texted my friend Beth (don't let the gender fool you, she knows her shit about sports) about her thoughts on this bet, just to see what she thought. She didn't think much of NU's chances, so I decided to give myself a buffet's worth of food and mimosas to make my decision in lieu of some doubt. After devouring some bacon and eggs, I realized I had to trust my gut. The bet: $220 to win $200. NU looked impressive enough to bet on the first half, leading 7-3. Two early 3rd quarter touchdowns by Iowa soon made it 17-7 Iowa, leaving me wonder why I didn't listen to my XX college football counterpart (then again, when do men ever listen to women?)...anywho, NU gets a TD with about 4-5 minutes left and then another with about 1-2 left after an impressive defensive stand. I gladly take my $420 from the ticket and move on.

Bet 2: Utah (-5.5) at Notre Dame: Eugh, what a horse shit bet right from the start. I figured Utah would bounce back from its embarassing showing against TCU at home the week before, but they just added to the embarassment. I stopped watching this game once the Auburn/Georgia game took over the book's sound system. Consider this a loss of $110

Bet 3: Georgia +6.5 for the 2nd half at Auburn. With the game tied at the half, I figured I was getting a deal at Georgia being +6.5 given that the game line was +7. However, Auburn's surprise onside kick to start the half was a bad omen. Auburn scored on every OT possession, including touchdowns on their first 3 or 4 drives, with Georgia not having enough to respond. Another loss of $100.

Bet 4: USC at Arizona (-4). Not sure what possessed me to make this my 2nd big bet of the day (I was much more confidence in NU than Ariz), but my guess was that alcohol had something to do with it. I placed the $220 bet as I was leaving the book for the night. I proceeded to not watch a single down of the game (usually good things happen when I do this in Vegas), but I woke up around 10:30pm local time (about 2 hours past game time end) to see that USC won the game. Another loss.


Total Saturday summary: (1-3 record, -$230)....total for trip: (1-5 record, -$480)...prognosis....life support.


Sunday

NFL ($380.80):

Bet 1: Jax/Hou over of 49.5. While I didn't necessarily need a hail mary to win my bet, it felt that way mid way through the 2nd quarter when the score was still 3-3. Luckily, things fell into place from the middle of the 2nd quarter onwards, as a 17-3 Jax lead at the half was quickly answered by Houston in the 3rd. The game culminated with a Garrard hail mary that pushed a 24-all tie into a 31-24 victory for the Jaguars, but at that point the only way I wasn't winning that game was if no score was achieved in OT. Thank god though I didn't need to find that out....$100 profit.

Bet 2: Min (even) at Chi. Talk about pissing a bet down the drain. Minnesota looked like the horsecrap team that their 3-5 record reflected. Say what you want about the Bears not deserving to be 6-3, but they are taking advantage of shitty teams with their much improved defense this year....-$110 down the drain.

Bet 3: StL at SF (-5): I should have known better not to make a homer bet. I got caught up in my friends winning money off of Chi that I felt the need to back my boys. SF was covering briefly during the game but needed an OT field goal to win the game straight...loss of 132.

Bet 4: Seattle ML (+185) at Arizona. Not sure this was ever part of my plan (I know it wasn't), but Seattle was just getting too much back on the dollar not to bet this. Seattle handled Arizona for much of this game and gave me the first of my easy ML bets. Profit of $142.80 on a $78 ticket.

Bet 5: NE ML (+190) at Pittsburgh. Betting NE was a planned part of my trip all along, but I wasn't sure how I was gonna bet it (taking the 4.5 points or the money line). I opted for the latter to much delight. Not only that, I threw $200 on it, netting me a cool $380 profit on it ($580 return).  I wagered all but $25 in my wallet (in the event it lost, I wanted to be able to eat something with cash that night). Luckily, I didn't have to worry about that. Biggest cash for my Vegas history. Definitely a trip redeemer.

NASCAR (-$40)

So yeah, I bet NASCAR and lost on betting Jimmie Johnson, much to the delight of my new biggest fb friend, acquired from Vegas, Kiira, who is a Stewart fan that was rooting for Denny. I should have known not to bet on a guy who references dick in both segments of his name.

Roulette (-$41)

I played the requests that people gave me, with only Jim Carter's $10 on red providing me with any return. Before losing too much, I quit after people's provided numbers were sucking royally.


Sunday total summary: $299.80 (3-2 NFL, 0-1 NASCAR)....total for trip at this point: (-180.20)...prognosis, much better.

Monday:

Horse racing (+$24): I was in the sports book for 4 hours before leaving for the airport, but didn't bet a whole ton of races (unlike past trips). My biggest win was a $20 bet on a 6-1 that won. Otherwise it was mostly losers.

Final total summary: -$156.20. First trip without an ATM visit


All in all, it was a solid trip despite (and maybe because of) the fact I was running solo much of the trip. I paced myself well with the betting, enjoyed a breakfast buffet every day, made some decent sized bets, and had a great time. I'm hoping to roll with one or more people next time who wanna spend some more sports book time together.


Back to the daily grind of crappy weather, work and school.

Vegas in first half of 2010 anyone?

The ultimate Vegas betting thread

For weekend of 11/12 thru 11/14

This will be a running thread that I'll edit and repost as I go along. Rather than jump into reasons just yet on why I am picking these, I'll just post them right now and possibly go into an explanation later.

NFL:
Minn -1 (or 2 or anything under 3)
Detroit +3 (or possibly money line, haven't decided)
Hou/Jax Over 50

Leans:
Dallas +14 (will bet this for sure if it goes to 14.5 or higher)
NE +4.5

College:

Leaning boise for friday laying 34.5
Utah -5 at ND
NW +10 vs. Iowa

Leans:
Wisconsin (-21.5) vs. Indiana
Arizona (-4) vs. USC
Kentucky: -14.5 vs Vandy


NBA:

Friday: orlando -14; risk 110 to win 100; lean on sac +280


Saturday: Golden State money line at Milwaukee
NHL:

Not likely to bet, but stay tuned

NASCAR:

Jimmie Johnson? Who knows

HORSE RACING:

Friday: ended up down 40. Biggest hit was an unboxed exacta that paid 90 profit on a 20 bet

Monday Funday

Lots going on today/this week:

Getting a new phone- highly leaning towards getting a Blackberry after years of getting shitty phone after shitty phone. I figure if my company is gonna pay my phone bill, might as well spoil myself a little on a decent phone.

Vegas Part V- I don't need to stress the epicness of Vegas. I think the Roman Numeral (a la Super Bowls) says it all.

TV school project- Finalizing a TV project that will be shown on a local Downers Grove channel. I am playing the role of on-air talent and also produced a 2:30 piece for it on a band and internet TV show that my friends are in. Should be great.

Vegas V: Oh wait, already mentioned that

Monday night pick: Cincy +6 over Pitt.

To say Cincy has under-achieved after last year's division championship would be an understatement. While everyone is quick to blame Palmer, it's been a team effort that has led to the 2-5 start.

With that being said, I have always liked taking the points in these spots: home underdog, struggling a little, getting nearly a TD (or maybe a TD depending on my book's final number), and playing a little below their talent level on their one chance under the national spotlight. I always think back to Arizona against Chicago four years ago and Buffalo against Dallas in 2007 or 2008 I believe and remember how they played above their actual talent level for one game (and in both cases, holding leads for much of the games only to lose at the end). Pittsburgh is closing a three game road trip, surviving against Miami after a controversial call and falling flat against a Saints team that lost to Cleveland a week before that. Winning on the road ain't easy in the NFL, so I'll say if Pitt wins, they won't cover. I won't be surprised to see a Cincy win to be honest (despite some flat showings lately).

I'm making this a $100 play.

Let's do this.

Rock on.

Bittersweet Symphony

Quick write-up for week 9 of NFL, since I neglected it last week.

NFL last week: 1-1, +$34
NFL YTD: 23-18, +$204

Picks as always in bold:

NYJ at Detroit (+4.5): Detroit has been a covering darling this year, going 6-1 against the spread so far this year despite its 2-5 record. This basically means that the public/oddsmakers have underestimated them. At first, I looked at this as a NYJ cover, but I believe it to be a trap line that falls right into the Lions' lap. Everyone and their mother is expecting NYJ to bounce back and avenge their shitty loss to the Packers. I hope I get this line at +5 because of this, but I'll gladly take 4.5.

Cleveland/NE (under 43.5): Cleveland has played competitively this year for the most part, holding leads in just about every game they've played this year (often into the 2nd half). The main reasons for that: improved defense and a steady back in Peyton Hillis. With McCoy behind center again, expect Cle to run Hillis about 25 times against NE. Likewise, I think NE is adjusting nicely to their no-Moss lineup, featuring the run and short passes a lot more. This game seems like one that will be in the mid 30s in terms of score based on the aforementioned facts.

Indy at Phil (-2.5): Fool me once, shame on the Colts....fool me twice....well....you can't fool me twice. At least I hope not. I love Phil in this spot with a week off to restore health, including that of Mike Vick. Vick opens up the running game, which Indy has notoriously struggled with for the past X amount of years. I expect McCoy to have a big day and the Eagles to win by at least a touchdown. This pick is further redeemed by Joe Public backing Indy to no end. As you know, the past couple years I have developed a severe anti-Joe Public betting style, which has served me more right than wrong.


Let's ride the gravy train towards profits for the 2nd day in a row. My perfect day yesterday restored my faith in my betting.

I would like yesterday to be the epitome of where the rest of my year goes, at least the latter half of the day with the winning bets and the lasting memories of Mike and Catie's wedding.

Get'er done.

Redemption

Nothing like the Shawshank kind, but I've been an advocate of this word a lot this year. With all the self-inflicted wounds that I have healed as best as I can, I've learned a lot about myself and how I can become a better man. I've had great people surrounding me during these times, making the climbing out of the muck transition a lot easier. With that, my confidence has grown and much of my life (save the love life) has been what I wanted.

Applying this attitude towards my handicapping skills will be no different. Every gambler goes through rough patches, and instead of panicking, the best way to handle the bad times is to keep your cool and keep everything in perspective. Greener pastures remain in sight on all horizons in life.

Ok...enough of that emo self-reflecting crap...

College picks for week 10 of college football, pick in bold as always:

Last week: 0-3 (first 0-fer this year), -$165, YTD: 15-16-1 (-$154)...not doing so hot lately, eugh. Getting pwned

Illinois (+3) at Michigan: Last week I made the mistake of erasing the only bet that I would have won only to replace it with a bet that got beat to shit. I forgot if I referenced it as a homer bet, but f- that this week. Michigan is in a tailspin and can't stop anyone (allowing nearly 40 points a game in Big Ten games). While I don't think either team will approach that number this week, I feel that Illinois' solid D will be able to contain Denard enough to keep things respectable on the scoreboard. I say Illinois walks away from Ann Arbor a victor and one step closer to being ranked for the first time this year.

Arizona State (+5.5) at USC: Despite its 4-4 record, ASU has been playing very competitve this year, having the distinction of losing by the least amount of points to Oregon this year (11). USC got it handed to them in an emotional game last week against those Ducks. A letdown from playing #1 Oregon to a lesser opponent should be expected, especially since Oregon was basically USC's bowl game for the year (with their bowl ban in effect for this year).

Iowa at Indiana (+17.5): After a pair of home games featuring ranked opponents, including last week's whoopin of MSU, Iowa is due for a letdown (There we go with that letdown word again...). Anyways, Indiana is more competitive at home, losing close games to NU and Mich. Not to say Iowa is in the class of those teams (much higher obviously), but I say Iowa wins by about 10.

Consider this my rise to power once again.

Dollars won > dollars earned

It's Been Awhile

Writer's block can sometimes kick in, and the end of Oct, beginning of Nov has not inspired much in the way of writing. The days count till Vegas (8 now), working on our last days of TV1 in my night class (I'll be hosting a community spotlight, which will be airing on a Downers Grove local access channel) and trying to get back into the fitness kick. All things considered, my focus is on those things in descending order. In the next week, I'll be glad to book bets for you should the need arise.

I didn't post any of my NFL picks last week, but I won $100 on the Lions and lost $66 on Houston's spread, so a winning week. I'm gonna book Virginia Tech tonight (who has been on a roll since their first two losses to open the year) and I'm giving Illinois a hard look at +3 going into Ann Arbor for Saturday action. Thank god baseball is over- not only for betting purposes, but for the simple fact that the season drags once you know your team is out of it. Baseball has very little national appeal any more in terms of people caring to watch games involving teams outside of their market. Ratings for the Giants World Series victory tied the lowest rating mark with the Phils/Rays from two years ago. Bring on basketball (and perhaps I'll get more into hockey this year).

If you think of any bets that you'd like me to book for you (or make for you), please let me know. I'll dedicate $20 bets to people on roulette and make them in the order that I receive them. If your bet comes in for me, I'll buy you a beer. I'll bet red, black, a number (or a couple), whatever. You name it, I'll bet it.

Peace out.

Highway to Helloween

October 31st, 2009: Oh how I remember it oh so very clear. It was a sunny fall morning, and I had just placed a bet on Indiana (+17.5) for $100 on my favorite gambling site Bookmaker. I had twisted Tim's arm into betting it with me, so now I was doubly excited to see the fruits of my knowledge grow into profit for the day. I remember betting against Iowa because of their knack for keeping games close, regardless of opponent. Things started great, with Indiana jumping to a 21-7 lead at half on what turned out to be an incredibly windy day at the stadium. The lead peaked at 17 with an Indiana field goal early in the 3rd, but that was when things went completely bonkers. Mind you, I'm being spotted +17.5 so the lead is actually 34.5 (or just under 5 touchdowns). However, 5 touchdowns later, including a 29 yard rushing touchdown with a minute left on 3rd down for Iowa, led to one of the most heartbreaking losses in gambling history for me. Earlier in the week, I nearly suffered a heart attack when Miami (+6) blew a huge lead against New Orleans and ended up losing straight up by 12 after allowing a pick 6 with about a minute or two left. That cost me a ML bet I had on Miami and also a 3-4 team parlay in which the first legs of it already came in.

Lesson of the above story: Gambling is not for the faint of heart.

With that being said, let's see if I can avenge the ghosts of yesteryear and make some money with college football:

College week 9 with picks in (bold)...last week: 1-3 (including Thursday night game), -$125....YTD: 15-12-1, +$66


Mich St (+6.5) at Iowa: Michigan State just keeps on winning, their latest being an impressive comeback against Northwestern on the road. If MSU would have just blown out NU, I might be inclined they'd be in for a let down. However, a team who has done nothing but win so far shouldn't be getting 6.5 points i n a situation like this. I think MSU has a good chance to win this game, so I'll gladly take the points here. I consider this my strong bet of the day. It should be a close game either way and very well could be a defensive-based game.

Arizona (-9) at UCLA: By no means is this me betting against UCLA strictly based on a revenge factor. UCLA clearly did not trust their freshman quarterback against a very talented Oregon team, running the ball 47 times vs. 23 passes in a 60-13 drubbing. Normally when you start trailing by, I don't know, 2-3 scores, you start passing the ball, but not these guys. UCLA's strategy was that of a team that knows it sucks and can't be a two-dimensional offense. Meanwhile, Arizona possesses a top 30 offense and a top 10 defense. The only way AZ doesn't cover here is if they are looking ahead to their game at Stanford next week. I say Arizona shuts down the Bruins by 20.

Oklahoma State/Kansas State (Over 67): OK St. enters the game as the 2nd highest scoring team in the nation (48.3 points per game) while yielding 30.6 points and near the bottom of college football in passing yards allowed (286). KSU puts up 34 a game themselves while allowing a more modest 26/game. However, their 428 yards allowed/game suggest that Ok St. should be able to move the ball, with or without their top receiver. I expect this score to be in the high 70s.

I may or may not bet equal amounts on these games. I'll post totals of what I bet on each later tonight. I'm definitely liking Mich St the best. I had an Illinois write up all ready to convince myself to bet them, but (1) it felt like a homer bet, (2) Illinois may be due for a moderate let-down after a convincing homecoming win over Indiana and (3) 17 points is a lot to lay on a team that is fairly mediocre offensively.

Let's hope to avoid the Helloween misfortune from last year and make some money.

By the way, I'm going as Brett Favre to a costume party. I haven't decided yet about any of my decisions once I get to the party regarding food, alcohol consumption and whether I am going to textually harass anyone. Just assume the answer to all of those would be what you would expect.

Peace.