Tough shit

Big girls don't cry, but petite ones who hire hitmen do.

Everyone hates hearing these words, especially when down in the dumps about something. It can be a personal problem that no one wants to hear about, or in my case, a bet gone awry (Jets decided to stop playing defense after two downs in the 2nd half, resulting in a loss of my under bet). Some might say, man, that sucks, sorry that happened. When I hear that, the pessimist in me hears the words "Tough shit". No one really cares about your downfalls or losses, I sometimes think in situations like that.

Then again, I can't really complain when in reality, things are still up, I'm breathing, and tomorrow's a new day in every aspect. I haven't had a losing gambling day in over 2 weeks. 17-12 in NFL through Week 5, has to be some kind of record for me. Week 6 leans should come earlier in the week than usual (I looooove St Louis and Oakland with their respective lines against San Diego and San Fran right now).

Let's get'er done tomorrow with a Texas victory against Tampa and continue the positive gambling streak for another day. Also continue the positive karma that life's bringing in general.

week 5, ending

Good evening my limited followers,

Not sure why it's limited, since my picks are more gold than 1849 California. Do you need any more reason to win money? Had another profit day. Here's another chance to follow me and make some money:

Under in Min/NYJ game

All the attention on this game is on Randy Moss and his effect on the offense. He will have some effect on the offense, but moreso opening lanes for Harvin. Moss's true impact will be when Rice comes back. I predict Minn will be battling Chi for a wild card spot towards the end of the year w/ the Vikes offense being the X factor.

Jets and Vikes are running teams, which means clock runs, which means less scoring. Both teams have good Ds as well, so I expect a score in the low 30s, like 20-13. Don't buy into the Moss trade. Take the under.

NFL record: 17-11, $241 profit. This bet will be $55 to win 50.

Let's make some moolah.

NFL week 5- $ome more pick$

After looking at my first post, I wasn't sure what direction this blog was gonna go in, but it should have been clear to everyone that this was going to be a sports blog with my gambling diatribes as a centerpiece.

College bets that were booked were 1-1, profit of $5 since I bet a little more on Mich St. (my lock of the weekend). Northwestern is a team I have to lay off for the time being, as they seem to play up (or down) to the level of their competition. NU ended my personal 6 bet winning streak, which followed a 6 bet streak that was ended by another Chicago-based team (the Bears), thus giving me reason to avoid the local teams. 12 out of 14 in the gambling world is nothing to sneeze at, but can't get too comfortable and excited when there's more money to be made. Gotta keep the focus and the faith. Let's start another streak and go for that elusive 5-0 week (a 4-1 weekend again would be no problem either).

NFL week 5 picks, here we go, with my bet in ( ):

Denver (+7) at Baltimore: Denver has been an under the radar team, mainly because of their inability to run the ball. Orton has picked up the slack and currently leads the league in passing as a result. They've been in every game going into the final quarter, losing to Jax by 7 and Indy by 14 (the latter due to the lack of a red-zone offense). On the other side, there's Baltimore, who is coming off a comeback victory over their #1 rival Pitt with a late-TD to secure the victory. While I expect Baltimore to be a team that can overcome the idea of a letdown game following such a victory, I think such a letdown is hard to avoid. I expect Balt to win a close battle by 3-4 points.

KC at Indy (-7): Indy is coming off a loss caused by some key turnovers and an insane game-ending field goal. KC has had a few weeks to prepare for this, but the fact that Indy lost last week gives me the feel that their focus will be on this game more than in years past where this might have been one of those "I can't wait to win this and move onto the next week" games. I expect Indy to show KC to be the future 8-8 team that they will be and win by two touchdowns, 31-17.

NYG at Hou (-3): NYG benefitted last week from the one-dimensional offense that the Bears feature. With no running game to worry about, NYG went on to set NFL history for most sacks in a half by consistent pressure- in the process knocking out golden-boy Cutler out of the game and having Bears fans searching for their nearest bottle of liquor and immediately injecting it into their veins. With a duel running/passing feature that Houston features, it'll be hard for NYG to do this again. While Houston's defense is nothing to worry about, NYG might be in trouble if Bradshaw can't play (Jacobs is a shadow of his former self and would make it necessary for Manning to lead the team to victory). I expect Houston to win by 7-10 here.

SD at Oakland (+6): I know Oakland hasn't fared well vs. SD lately, losing like the last dozen games or so in a row. Also, Darren McFadden is hurt. However, Michael Bush, who was tabbed by the team to be the feature back until he broke his thumb in the preseason, is a formidable back who can and will fill in for DMc very well. The Raiders aren't the same team in year's past that were forced to play JaMarcus Russell because of his bloaded contract. While Bruce Gradkowski isn't exactly Philip Rivers in terms of skill level, he's a guy who will keep his team in games. And taking the points here, I seem to be burying the lede - San Diego sucks!!! on the road, looking crappy against Kansas City and Seattle (in both cases, they were favorites). This line seems to be an example of people valuing previous years' results vs. actually looking at a team's tendencies now. I have Oakland winning this game and knocking some people out of their respective survivor pools.

New Orleans at Arizona (+6.5 or whatever they close at): If it smells like a line that's too good to be true, it usually is. Everyone is backing NO due to Ariz going to a rookie QB to replace Derek Anderson. But really, how much worse can it get than DA? This is Ariz's only chance of salvaging something out of this season (and yes, they have a shot being in the NFC We(r)st division). Call me crazy, but I think Max Hall finds Larry Fitz a lot more (and a lot more accurately) than Anderson did. New Orleans once again found themselves in a tight fourth quarter battle for the 4th game in a row last week, edging Carolina by two. NO doesn't have the flow they had last year, and with their top 2 backs ruled out for tomorrow, I don't see them getting that flow back. I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona won, but I have NO winning yet another close one by 2-3 points. Let's say 27-24.

All bets are $55 to win $50.

Record in all sports since I restarted my gambling ways on September 4:  30-17-1 (+$486).

And by the way, go Yankees! 7 more wins till my preseason WS bet coming in.

Money won is twice as sweet as money earned

Since I'm pressed for time and want to get my football picks on record to see if I can continue my streak: (10 of last 11 bets won, including 3 straight baseball bets, with pending bet of Braves winning tonight), gonna write a short write-up:

Illinois (+8) over Penn State- Not a homer pick. I think Illinois rides the momentum from last week against Ohio State and at least keeps it within a score, possibly wins. Penn State hasn't impressed at all this season. Take the points.

Wisconsin (-21.5 or whatever) over Minnesota- Wisconsin is a strong team and are licking their chops over the loss from last week which essentially erased any chance of them contending as a darkhorse championship team. Minnesota blows and was lucky to cover against NU last week. Wisconsin by 31.

Mich State (+4.5) over Michigan- For as good as Robinson is playing, he can't play defense. MSU is solid and this line should be at 3 honestly. If Michigan State loses, it won't be by more than 4 points.

Might bet more, but that's the early slate of games I like. Just a coincidence that they are all Big Ten.

Notes added 10-9-10 at 4:50: (Only bet I was able to get in was the MSU line, which works perfectly. State is absolutely killing here. I was able to get Tim to tag me on this game, so hopefully we can start winning money together here.

Last bet of the day will be Northwestern (-8.5) over Purdue. Purdue is going into the Big Ten season without its top QB and WR, with a redshirt starting QB taking the helm for good a week ago. NU should win this one by about 14.)

Let's keep making money...11-7-1 college record this year, +$131

Enjoy your weekends. I'll be back tomorrow with my NFL picks.

Putting the DIK in predict

Maybe more people (well, men I suppose) would like baseball if it was a coin flip in this sense.

Apparently the Philadelphia Phillies are already the 2010 World Series champions. Just like the Cubs were already the 2008 champions heading into October. Also, in '05, I think the Red Sox and Yankees were no doubt gonna face each other in the ALCS again for the 205th year in a row. Oh shit, none of those things happened? Ahhh, yes...see where I am going with this?

Well, probably not, especially if you don't give two shits about baseball. But let's pretend you do for a second. Predicting/betting on baseball is the dumbest thing anyone can do. The results of any given game are so unpredictable that you may as well use a dartboard to pick your bets. Granted, you can do a certain level of statistical analysis, but why don't you ask Oakland Athletics fans how many championships, hell, even recent division championships, that Moneyball has won them and see how much that's done? While it's not hard to predict what teams will do bad over a 162 game schedule from year to year (the Pirates and Royals, among a few others, will continue to suck until they change ownership), it is damn near impossible to be a baseball savant with gambling. I have yet to meet anyone who is good at it- then again, me and most of my friends generally suck at all sports gambling.

With that being said, let's defy everything I just said and try guessing what's gonna happen. I'm gonna flip a coin for each series, starting in the AL w/ the Minn/NYY series and ending in the NL with Phil/Cin. Heads is home team, tails is road team. I'm wondering if this will yield just as good of results as trusting my baseball knowledge.

First round: Yanks win 3-1; Texas wins 3-1; SF wins 3-0; Cincy wins 3-2
LCS's: Texas wins 4-2; Reds win 4-2
WS: Reds win 4-3 (come back after 3-0 deficit)

My actual predictions would look a lot different than that (probably Phillies vs. Rays), but if there's any sport that lends itself to a coin toss for betting purposes,  baseball would be that.

Also, I know I shouldn't, but I'm gonna dabble a little in postseason betting.

Wednesdays bet: Rangers over Rays.

Flip a coin, make a bet, and enjoy an afternoon beer as playoff baseball begins Wednesday afternoon.

It Ain't Over Till It's Over...

What would sports be without clichés and its announcers who speak to the average viewer as if they are in eighth grade? To their defense, I think they might be speaking above the heads of most people. Take John BOOM Madden:

"In order to score touchdowns, you need to move the ball." - John Earl Madden

Say what you want about how simple he makes football seem, but he got paid the big bucks for a reason. The average viewer could relate to him more than most announcers, and I have yet to hear an announcer that kept it so simple and yet so entertaining. I'll never forget the Turducken he sliced with his humongous hand during an Eagles drubbing of the Niners on a Monday night game in 2002. And someone who had just about every Madden game from 1998-2009, his contribution to the pop culture world cannot be ignored. Who can forget his literary masterpieces, One Knee Equals Two Feet and Hey, Wait a Minute, I Wrote a Book (I can't make this up). I bought the former for $5, and it was worth every dollar.

I'd say Madden is the exception to the rule as far as getting away with clichés and dumbass sayings. I hate most announcers because of it- take Hawk Harrelson. He makes watching Sox games hard with his catchphrases and annoying pro-Sox stance on everything. It's ok to love the team you're announcing for, but quit playing the Us against the World card every time the umpire makes a close call against the Sox. I'll give ya that he's come up with some decent catchphrases and nicknames (Big Hurt is a HOF nickname in an era lacking nicknames), but as a fan of the team, I guess I'm just overexposed to it, thus making it more annoying than if he was not my team's announcer.

DJ and Hawk: Sounds more like a bad WWF tag-team than a bad announcing duo

'Dogs finally have their day with Vick

Just picture this as an Eagles jersey and that's what happened today

Those (under)dogs today would be the Redskins. No need to rub it in your faces (you're welcome to do it next week when my picks suck), but Redskins looked amped up today. Had nothing to do with McNabb, but I'll take the win. Luckily for Vick fantasy owners such as myself, we have no need to worry about Kolb taking the job back from Vick (unless Vicks ribs look like the Kibbles and Bits inside of the losing rottweilers he coached).