I'm trying to get my NFL picks together and all I can smell is my dog's rank ass breath, so if my picks suck this week, I'm gonna blame the dog.
Last week: 3-3, -$4; YTD: 17-12, $197 in NFL.
Week 6 picks, with pick in ( ):
San Diego at St. Louis (+8.5): Still trying to figure out this line. SD is 0-3 on the road, St. Louis 2-1 at home, and you're giving a score+ total to the home team? This is my favorite line of the week. StL will definitely cover and may even win.
Detroit (+10) at NYG: Detroit has been quite respectable on the road this year, losing by 5, 14 and 2 (unlike year's past where they would lose consistently by 20+ points. This seems like the perfect spot for an NYG let down- their past two games have been amazing defensive performances. There's something about Eli that I don't like or trust in this spot. I say Det keeps this close and loses by 3-4.
Oakland (+6.5) at SF: Again, not sure why an 0-5 team is spotting 6.5 points to anyone. Bush proved to be just as good of an option as McFadden, and I expect them to pound the rock some more. SF is due for a win soon, but I could very well see an upset here from Oakland, if you wanna call it an upset.
Those are the bets for now. Also got SF Giants tonight in my efforts to go 8-0 in postseason betting.
Let's keep the gravy train rolling, my dogs rank ass breath be damned.
10/15/2010
Head-lines, lines in head
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| Ride the chalk this week, says sports prognosticator/future plus-sized model Brian Bolek |
Lines are always stuck in my head from different facets of life. Every now and then, a good lyric gets stuck in my head. There's lines that people may say to me that become entrapped in my consciousness. And of course, in the fall months of the year, I always have monetary Vegas football lines processing in order to get easy money. In both cases, perspective is needed in order to analyze said lines to see what to make out of them.
Now that I've wasted your time with that opening paragraph, here's the lines that have been trapped in my head and what I will be betting Saturday.
NCAA (last week: processed bets (1-1, $5), YTD: (12-8-1, $136))
Bets in ( ), all $55 to win $50
Illinois at Mich St (-7): I've been battling making this bet because I am fading my homeboys, but I'm in the business of making money, not making friends with school boosters. All signs point to a let-down on MSU's part after convincing wins against Wisconsin and Michigan, which is why this line is at -7 and not -9.5 or 10 in my opinion. However, the same can be said of Illinois and their first straight-up win at Happy Valley last weekend. If you asked any Illini fan if they would take a 1-2 run with this team with consecutive games against Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State, I think we'd gladly take it. Illinois is improved and I believe they will get the six wins necessary to get into a mediocre bowl, but I think they take one on the chin this week against a more talented team. Mich St by 14.
Iowa (-3) at Michigan: So I've been told Denard Robinson gave a passionate Tebow-like speech after the UM loss to their little brother MSU. That's great and all, but like my last week's post stated, I don't think speeches can knock down passes and prevent runners from getting into the end zone. When they do, we might be onto a new wave of sports strategy. Iowa is a great value here, especially coming off of a bye. Iowa by 10-14. Let the second-half of season panicking begin again for Ann Arbor.
Texas at Nebraska (-9.5/10): Nebraska is the best team in the Big 12, sorry Oklahoma. Unlike last year, they have an offense that compliments a world-class defense. Texas is definitely in a state of recession as far as their program goes, at least for a year. Texas is coming off of a bye, but that's nearly negated by the 9 day lay-off Nebraska has had since whomping Kansas State on a Thursday night road game. Lay the points.
Normally I don't ride the chalk this hard, but these lines got my attention the most. Any line that catches your attention deserves scrutiny, but trust your instincts.
Ride chalk this week and ride them hard. Like a spry 18-year old on prom night.
Also, riding the Yanks tonight against the Rangers tonight to win $40. Let's continue the perfect streak and make it a 7-0 start to MLB playoffs.
10/13/2010
NFL without a fantasy
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| Wish I could take credit for this graph...well done. |
So you're sitting there on your computer on a Sunday afternoon, trying to figure out how you can win all 5 of your fantasy football games with you having conflicting players to root for/against across the slate of games. I know many people who are like this, me being one of them (at least in a normal year, I've avoided it this year by going out for games and having a shitty phone that doesn't update scores). Fantasy football has become such a phenomenon, bringing people who have absolutely no knowledge of football and providing them an opportunity to play general manager against 9 or 11 of their closest friends/co-workers/random people and see who can create the highest scoring team on a week to week basis. I myself am in 4 money leagues, with a total of $400 invested among those 4 leagues; I'm even in 3 non-money leagues for the purposes of pride and wanting to destroy all my friends from different walks of life in something I consider myself good at. With all of these leagues, I probably own about half of the NFL collectively, so odds are, a few of my teams will win, a few will lose: (so far, 19-11 in the 6 head to head leagues and 1st place in my points league, so not too shabby).
So all of this begs the question: where would the NFL be without fantasy football? It'd still exist, sure. At one point in time, the main reason a good chunk of people watched games was for gambling purposes- that reason for watching will never completely die, as there will always be a Vegas book overflowing with gambling novices that are more than happy to donate their money to the Vegas fund. So it wouldn't die without fantasy, but I know the common man wouldn't be as interested, which would definitely lead to less TV ratings and thus, less revenue for the league. While the NFL didn't need fantasy football back in the day, the 2000s version of pro football definitely does need it. It'll be interesting to see in 20 years what the next thing that NFL will need to satisfy fan interest, or if betting and fantasy football will continue to drive ratings and interest for the foreseeable future.
I could live off of the gambling aspect of football, but if you take away both that AND fantasy, I might be hard pressed to be as interested in it as I am. In fact, I guarantee I wouldn't be...would you? I sure as hell doubt it. If you're a football fanatic like me, I'm willing to bet (pun intended) that you are in (a) 1 or more fantasy football leagues, (b) a gambler or someone who is in a pool of some sort that involves money, or (c) all of the above. Good luck being as interested without those two aspects- you just can't do it. Cannot play with them, cannot win with them, cannot coach with them, can't do it.
10/11/2010
Tough shit
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| Big girls don't cry, but petite ones who hire hitmen do. |
Everyone hates hearing these words, especially when down in the dumps about something. It can be a personal problem that no one wants to hear about, or in my case, a bet gone awry (Jets decided to stop playing defense after two downs in the 2nd half, resulting in a loss of my under bet). Some might say, man, that sucks, sorry that happened. When I hear that, the pessimist in me hears the words "Tough shit". No one really cares about your downfalls or losses, I sometimes think in situations like that.
Then again, I can't really complain when in reality, things are still up, I'm breathing, and tomorrow's a new day in every aspect. I haven't had a losing gambling day in over 2 weeks. 17-12 in NFL through Week 5, has to be some kind of record for me. Week 6 leans should come earlier in the week than usual (I looooove St Louis and Oakland with their respective lines against San Diego and San Fran right now).
Let's get'er done tomorrow with a Texas victory against Tampa and continue the positive gambling streak for another day. Also continue the positive karma that life's bringing in general.
week 5, ending
Good evening my limited followers,
Not sure why it's limited, since my picks are more gold than 1849 California. Do you need any more reason to win money? Had another profit day. Here's another chance to follow me and make some money:
Under in Min/NYJ game
All the attention on this game is on Randy Moss and his effect on the offense. He will have some effect on the offense, but moreso opening lanes for Harvin. Moss's true impact will be when Rice comes back. I predict Minn will be battling Chi for a wild card spot towards the end of the year w/ the Vikes offense being the X factor.
Jets and Vikes are running teams, which means clock runs, which means less scoring. Both teams have good Ds as well, so I expect a score in the low 30s, like 20-13. Don't buy into the Moss trade. Take the under.
NFL record: 17-11, $241 profit. This bet will be $55 to win 50.
Let's make some moolah.
Not sure why it's limited, since my picks are more gold than 1849 California. Do you need any more reason to win money? Had another profit day. Here's another chance to follow me and make some money:
Under in Min/NYJ game
All the attention on this game is on Randy Moss and his effect on the offense. He will have some effect on the offense, but moreso opening lanes for Harvin. Moss's true impact will be when Rice comes back. I predict Minn will be battling Chi for a wild card spot towards the end of the year w/ the Vikes offense being the X factor.
Jets and Vikes are running teams, which means clock runs, which means less scoring. Both teams have good Ds as well, so I expect a score in the low 30s, like 20-13. Don't buy into the Moss trade. Take the under.
NFL record: 17-11, $241 profit. This bet will be $55 to win 50.
Let's make some moolah.
10/09/2010
NFL week 5- $ome more pick$
After looking at my first post, I wasn't sure what direction this blog was gonna go in, but it should have been clear to everyone that this was going to be a sports blog with my gambling diatribes as a centerpiece.
College bets that were booked were 1-1, profit of $5 since I bet a little more on Mich St. (my lock of the weekend). Northwestern is a team I have to lay off for the time being, as they seem to play up (or down) to the level of their competition. NU ended my personal 6 bet winning streak, which followed a 6 bet streak that was ended by another Chicago-based team (the Bears), thus giving me reason to avoid the local teams. 12 out of 14 in the gambling world is nothing to sneeze at, but can't get too comfortable and excited when there's more money to be made. Gotta keep the focus and the faith. Let's start another streak and go for that elusive 5-0 week (a 4-1 weekend again would be no problem either).
NFL week 5 picks, here we go, with my bet in ( ):
Denver (+7) at Baltimore: Denver has been an under the radar team, mainly because of their inability to run the ball. Orton has picked up the slack and currently leads the league in passing as a result. They've been in every game going into the final quarter, losing to Jax by 7 and Indy by 14 (the latter due to the lack of a red-zone offense). On the other side, there's Baltimore, who is coming off a comeback victory over their #1 rival Pitt with a late-TD to secure the victory. While I expect Baltimore to be a team that can overcome the idea of a letdown game following such a victory, I think such a letdown is hard to avoid. I expect Balt to win a close battle by 3-4 points.
KC at Indy (-7): Indy is coming off a loss caused by some key turnovers and an insane game-ending field goal. KC has had a few weeks to prepare for this, but the fact that Indy lost last week gives me the feel that their focus will be on this game more than in years past where this might have been one of those "I can't wait to win this and move onto the next week" games. I expect Indy to show KC to be the future 8-8 team that they will be and win by two touchdowns, 31-17.
NYG at Hou (-3): NYG benefitted last week from the one-dimensional offense that the Bears feature. With no running game to worry about, NYG went on to set NFL history for most sacks in a half by consistent pressure- in the process knocking out golden-boy Cutler out of the game and having Bears fans searching for their nearest bottle of liquor and immediately injecting it into their veins. With a duel running/passing feature that Houston features, it'll be hard for NYG to do this again. While Houston's defense is nothing to worry about, NYG might be in trouble if Bradshaw can't play (Jacobs is a shadow of his former self and would make it necessary for Manning to lead the team to victory). I expect Houston to win by 7-10 here.
SD at Oakland (+6): I know Oakland hasn't fared well vs. SD lately, losing like the last dozen games or so in a row. Also, Darren McFadden is hurt. However, Michael Bush, who was tabbed by the team to be the feature back until he broke his thumb in the preseason, is a formidable back who can and will fill in for DMc very well. The Raiders aren't the same team in year's past that were forced to play JaMarcus Russell because of his bloaded contract. While Bruce Gradkowski isn't exactly Philip Rivers in terms of skill level, he's a guy who will keep his team in games. And taking the points here, I seem to be burying the lede - San Diego sucks!!! on the road, looking crappy against Kansas City and Seattle (in both cases, they were favorites). This line seems to be an example of people valuing previous years' results vs. actually looking at a team's tendencies now. I have Oakland winning this game and knocking some people out of their respective survivor pools.
New Orleans at Arizona (+6.5 or whatever they close at): If it smells like a line that's too good to be true, it usually is. Everyone is backing NO due to Ariz going to a rookie QB to replace Derek Anderson. But really, how much worse can it get than DA? This is Ariz's only chance of salvaging something out of this season (and yes, they have a shot being in the NFC We(r)st division). Call me crazy, but I think Max Hall finds Larry Fitz a lot more (and a lot more accurately) than Anderson did. New Orleans once again found themselves in a tight fourth quarter battle for the 4th game in a row last week, edging Carolina by two. NO doesn't have the flow they had last year, and with their top 2 backs ruled out for tomorrow, I don't see them getting that flow back. I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona won, but I have NO winning yet another close one by 2-3 points. Let's say 27-24.
All bets are $55 to win $50.
Record in all sports since I restarted my gambling ways on September 4: 30-17-1 (+$486).
And by the way, go Yankees! 7 more wins till my preseason WS bet coming in.
College bets that were booked were 1-1, profit of $5 since I bet a little more on Mich St. (my lock of the weekend). Northwestern is a team I have to lay off for the time being, as they seem to play up (or down) to the level of their competition. NU ended my personal 6 bet winning streak, which followed a 6 bet streak that was ended by another Chicago-based team (the Bears), thus giving me reason to avoid the local teams. 12 out of 14 in the gambling world is nothing to sneeze at, but can't get too comfortable and excited when there's more money to be made. Gotta keep the focus and the faith. Let's start another streak and go for that elusive 5-0 week (a 4-1 weekend again would be no problem either).
NFL week 5 picks, here we go, with my bet in ( ):
Denver (+7) at Baltimore: Denver has been an under the radar team, mainly because of their inability to run the ball. Orton has picked up the slack and currently leads the league in passing as a result. They've been in every game going into the final quarter, losing to Jax by 7 and Indy by 14 (the latter due to the lack of a red-zone offense). On the other side, there's Baltimore, who is coming off a comeback victory over their #1 rival Pitt with a late-TD to secure the victory. While I expect Baltimore to be a team that can overcome the idea of a letdown game following such a victory, I think such a letdown is hard to avoid. I expect Balt to win a close battle by 3-4 points.
KC at Indy (-7): Indy is coming off a loss caused by some key turnovers and an insane game-ending field goal. KC has had a few weeks to prepare for this, but the fact that Indy lost last week gives me the feel that their focus will be on this game more than in years past where this might have been one of those "I can't wait to win this and move onto the next week" games. I expect Indy to show KC to be the future 8-8 team that they will be and win by two touchdowns, 31-17.
NYG at Hou (-3): NYG benefitted last week from the one-dimensional offense that the Bears feature. With no running game to worry about, NYG went on to set NFL history for most sacks in a half by consistent pressure- in the process knocking out golden-boy Cutler out of the game and having Bears fans searching for their nearest bottle of liquor and immediately injecting it into their veins. With a duel running/passing feature that Houston features, it'll be hard for NYG to do this again. While Houston's defense is nothing to worry about, NYG might be in trouble if Bradshaw can't play (Jacobs is a shadow of his former self and would make it necessary for Manning to lead the team to victory). I expect Houston to win by 7-10 here.
SD at Oakland (+6): I know Oakland hasn't fared well vs. SD lately, losing like the last dozen games or so in a row. Also, Darren McFadden is hurt. However, Michael Bush, who was tabbed by the team to be the feature back until he broke his thumb in the preseason, is a formidable back who can and will fill in for DMc very well. The Raiders aren't the same team in year's past that were forced to play JaMarcus Russell because of his bloaded contract. While Bruce Gradkowski isn't exactly Philip Rivers in terms of skill level, he's a guy who will keep his team in games. And taking the points here, I seem to be burying the lede - San Diego sucks!!! on the road, looking crappy against Kansas City and Seattle (in both cases, they were favorites). This line seems to be an example of people valuing previous years' results vs. actually looking at a team's tendencies now. I have Oakland winning this game and knocking some people out of their respective survivor pools.
New Orleans at Arizona (+6.5 or whatever they close at): If it smells like a line that's too good to be true, it usually is. Everyone is backing NO due to Ariz going to a rookie QB to replace Derek Anderson. But really, how much worse can it get than DA? This is Ariz's only chance of salvaging something out of this season (and yes, they have a shot being in the NFC We(r)st division). Call me crazy, but I think Max Hall finds Larry Fitz a lot more (and a lot more accurately) than Anderson did. New Orleans once again found themselves in a tight fourth quarter battle for the 4th game in a row last week, edging Carolina by two. NO doesn't have the flow they had last year, and with their top 2 backs ruled out for tomorrow, I don't see them getting that flow back. I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona won, but I have NO winning yet another close one by 2-3 points. Let's say 27-24.
All bets are $55 to win $50.
Record in all sports since I restarted my gambling ways on September 4: 30-17-1 (+$486).
And by the way, go Yankees! 7 more wins till my preseason WS bet coming in.
10/08/2010
Money won is twice as sweet as money earned
Since I'm pressed for time and want to get my football picks on record to see if I can continue my streak: (10 of last 11 bets won, including 3 straight baseball bets, with pending bet of Braves winning tonight), gonna write a short write-up:
Illinois (+8) over Penn State- Not a homer pick. I think Illinois rides the momentum from last week against Ohio State and at least keeps it within a score, possibly wins. Penn State hasn't impressed at all this season. Take the points.
Wisconsin (-21.5 or whatever) over Minnesota- Wisconsin is a strong team and are licking their chops over the loss from last week which essentially erased any chance of them contending as a darkhorse championship team. Minnesota blows and was lucky to cover against NU last week. Wisconsin by 31.
Mich State (+4.5) over Michigan- For as good as Robinson is playing, he can't play defense. MSU is solid and this line should be at 3 honestly. If Michigan State loses, it won't be by more than 4 points.
Might bet more, but that's the early slate of games I like. Just a coincidence that they are all Big Ten.
Notes added 10-9-10 at 4:50: (Only bet I was able to get in was the MSU line, which works perfectly. State is absolutely killing here. I was able to get Tim to tag me on this game, so hopefully we can start winning money together here.
Last bet of the day will be Northwestern (-8.5) over Purdue. Purdue is going into the Big Ten season without its top QB and WR, with a redshirt starting QB taking the helm for good a week ago. NU should win this one by about 14.)
Let's keep making money...11-7-1 college record this year, +$131
Enjoy your weekends. I'll be back tomorrow with my NFL picks.
Illinois (+8) over Penn State- Not a homer pick. I think Illinois rides the momentum from last week against Ohio State and at least keeps it within a score, possibly wins. Penn State hasn't impressed at all this season. Take the points.
Wisconsin (-21.5 or whatever) over Minnesota- Wisconsin is a strong team and are licking their chops over the loss from last week which essentially erased any chance of them contending as a darkhorse championship team. Minnesota blows and was lucky to cover against NU last week. Wisconsin by 31.
Mich State (+4.5) over Michigan- For as good as Robinson is playing, he can't play defense. MSU is solid and this line should be at 3 honestly. If Michigan State loses, it won't be by more than 4 points.
Might bet more, but that's the early slate of games I like. Just a coincidence that they are all Big Ten.
Notes added 10-9-10 at 4:50: (Only bet I was able to get in was the MSU line, which works perfectly. State is absolutely killing here. I was able to get Tim to tag me on this game, so hopefully we can start winning money together here.
Last bet of the day will be Northwestern (-8.5) over Purdue. Purdue is going into the Big Ten season without its top QB and WR, with a redshirt starting QB taking the helm for good a week ago. NU should win this one by about 14.)
Let's keep making money...11-7-1 college record this year, +$131
Enjoy your weekends. I'll be back tomorrow with my NFL picks.
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