Weeks like last require a deep breath, a couple of shitty beers, and a good night's rest. Onward to Week 12 - only six weeks left in regular season.
New Orleans (-8) at Atlanta
NO O: 6.2 yards/play (7.5 YPP/3.9 YPC); 68 plays/game; 14.55 yards/point; 1.3 TOs/game
Atl D: 6.0 yards/play (7.2 YPP/4.6 YPC); 63.3 plays/game; 13.07 yards/point; 0.8 TOs/game
Atl O: 5.6 yards/play (6.4 YPP/4.0 YPC); 61.6 plays/game; 16.24 yards/point; 1.9 TOs/game
NO O: 5.2 yards/play (5.4 YPP/4.9 YPC); 58.6 plays/game; 16.69 yards/point; 1.6 TOs/game
Tampa Bay at Detroit (-9)
TB O: 4.7 yards/play (5.2 YPP/4.1 YPC); 65.6 plays/game; 16.62 yards/point; 1.2 TOs/game
Det D: 5.9 yards/play (6.9 YPP/4.1 YPC); 64.2 plays/game; 14.96 yards/point; 1.4 TOs/game
Det O: 6.0 yards/play (7.2 YPP/4.0 YPC); 69.0 plays/game; 15.63 yards/point; 1.6 TOs/game
TB D: 5.4 yards/play (6.3 YPP/4.1 YPC); 63.0 plays/game; 14.42 yards/point; 1.7 TOs/game
Minnesota at Green Bay (-4.5)
Min O: 5.2 yards/play (5.6 YPP/4.6 YPC); 60.8 plays/game; 13.24 yards/point; 2.2 TOs/game
GB D: 5.7 yards/play (6.7 YPP/4.1 YPC); 62.1 plays/game; 14.68 yards/point; 0.9 TOs/game
GB O: 6.4 yards/play (7.6 YPP/4.7 YPC); 65.7 plays/game; 16.18 yards/point; 1.5 TOs/game
Min D: 5.6 yards/play (6.8 YPP/3.9 YPC); 69.7 plays/game; 12.24 yards/point; 1.4 TOs/game
Jacksonville at Houston (-10)
Jax O: 4.4 yards/play (5.4 YPP/2.7 YPC); 62.7 plays/game; 21.55 yards/point; 1.9 TOs/game
Hou D: 4.9 yards/play (5.6 YPP/4.2 YPC); 57.9 plays/game; 10.37 yards/point; 0.8 TOs/game
Hou O: 5.3 yards/play (5.9 YPP/4.4 YPC); 70.7 plays/game; 19.58 yards/point; 1.9 TOs/game
Jax D: 5.9 yards/play (7.4 YPP/4.3 YPC); 66.4 plays/game; 12.31 yards/point; 1.2 TOs/game
San Diego at Kansas City (-5)
SD O: 6.1 yards/play (7.6 YPP/4.0 YPC); 65.5 plays/game; 17.52 yards/point; 1.3 TOs/game
KC D: 5.2 yards/play (5.5 YPP/4.7 YPC); 65.1 plays/game; 24.41 yards/point; 2.4 TOs/game
KC O: 4.8 yards/play (5.1 YPP/4.3 YPC); 66.9 plays/game; 13.79 yards/point; 0.9 TOs/game
SD D: 6.4 yards/play (7.4 YPP/4.8 YPC); 60.9 plays/game; 17.52 yards/point; 0.7 TOs/game
Carolina (-4.5) at Miami
Car O: 5.0 yards/play (6.0 YPP/4.0 YPC); 64.2 plays/game; 13.50 yards/point; 1.3 TOs/game
Mia D: 5.3 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.1 YPC); 69.5 plays/game; 16.22 yards/point; 1.7 TOs/game
Mia O: 5.0 yards/play (5.4 YPP/4.1 YPC); 62.1 plays/game; 14.45 yards/point; 1.7 TOs/game
Car D: 4.9 yards/play (5.6 YPP/3.8 YPC); 59.6 plays/game; 21.78 yards/point; 2.3 TOs/game
Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-2.5)
Pitt O: 5.3 yards/play (6.3 YPP/3.4 YPC); 64.8 plays/game; 15.89 yards/point; 1.8 TOs/game
Cle D: 4.4 yards/play (5.1 YPP/3.5 YPC); 68.9 plays/game; 12.88 yards/point; 1.3 TOs/game
Cle O: 4.7 yards/play (5.1 YPP/3.8 YPC); 67.8 plays/game; 16.57 yards/point; 1.8 TOs/game
Pitt D: 5.3 yards/play (6.3 YPP/4.2 YPC); 63.8 plays/game; 13.91 yards/point; 1.0 TOs/game
Chicago at St. Louis (-1)
Chi O: 5.8 yards/play (6.7 YPP/4.5 YPC); 62.9 plays/game; 13.02 yards/point; 1.2 TOs/game
StL D: 5.7 yards/play (7.0 YPP/4.2 YPC); 61.4 plays/game; 15.03 yards/point; 1.9 TOs/game
StL O: 5.0 yards/play (5.8 YPP/3.8 YPC); 63.4 plays/game; 14.13 yards/point; 1.4 TOs/game
Chi D: 5.9 yards/play (7.2 YPP/4.5 YPC); 63.2 plays/game; 13.97 yards/point; 2.2 TOs/game
NY Jets at Baltimore (-4)
NYJ O: 5.0 yards/play (5.7 YPP/4.3 YPC); 64.7 plays/game; 17.75 yards/point; 2.1 TOs/game
Bal D: 5.1 yards/play (6.2 YPP/3.7 YPC); 66.1 plays/game; 16.03 yards/point; 1.3 TOs/game
Bal O: 4.5 yards/play (5.5 YPP/3.0 YPC); 68.7 plays/game; 14.83 yards/point; 1.8 TOs/game
NYJ D: 5.0 yards/play (6.2 YPP/2.9 YPC); 65.3 plays/game; 12.09 yards/point; 0.7 TOs/game
Tennessee at Oakland (-1)
Ten O: 5.2 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.1 YPC); 62.3 plays/game; 14.30 yards/point; 1.4 TOs/game
Oak D: 5.4 yards/play (6.6 YPP/3.7 YPC); 64.3 plays/game; 14.24 yards/point; 1.6 TOs/game
Oak O: 5.2 yards/play (5.4 YPP/5.0 YPC); 63.7 plays/game; 17.10 yards/point; 1.6 TOs/game
Ten D: 5.2 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.1 YPC); 63.7 plays/game; 14.61 yards/point; 1.7 TOs/game
Indianapolis at Arizona (-2.5)
Ind O: 5.5 yards/play (6.3 YPP/4.4 YPC); 63.7 plays/game; 13.88 yards/point; 1.1 TOs/game
Ari D: 4.8 yards/play (5.6 YPP/3.4 YPC); 67.4 plays/game; 15.33 yards/point; 2.2 TOs/game
Ari O: 5.2 yards/play (6.2 YPP/3.6 YPC); 62.3 plays/game; 15.25 yards/point; 2.1 TOs/game
Ind D: 5.8 yards/play (7.0 YPP/4.4 YPC); 62.5 plays/game; 16.59 yards/point; 1.5 TOs/game
Dallas at NY Giants (-2.5)
Dal O: 5.5 yards/play (6.4 YPP/3.9 YPC); 59.1 plays/game; 11.96 yards/point; 1.1 TOs/game
NYG D: 5.0 yards/play (6.0 YPP/3.6 YPC); 66.7 plays/game; 13.13 yards/point; 1.8 TOs/game
NYG O: 5.1 yards/play (6.2 YPP/3.2 YPC); 63.2 plays/game; 16.70 yards/point; 2.9 TOs/game
Dal D: 6.2 yards/play (7.0 YPP/4.9 YPC); 71.0 plays/game; 17.05 yards/point; 2.2 TOs/game
Denver (-2.5) at New England
Den O: 6.4 yards/play (8.2 YPP/3.6 YPC); 71.7 plays/game; 11.44 yards/point; 1.9 TOs/game
NE D: 5.1 yards/play (5.7 YPP/4.3 YPC); 69.7 plays/game; 17.83 yards/point; 2.2 TOs/game
NE O: 5.2 yards/play (5.8 YPP/4.3 YPC); 70.0 plays/game; 14.33 yards/point; 1.2 TOs/game
Den D: 5.4 yards/play (6.5 YPP/3.7 YPC); 68.3 plays/game; 14.58 yards/point; 1.7 TOs/game
San Francisco (-5) at Washington
SF O: 5.2 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.5 YPC); 59.2 plays/game; 12.51 yards/point; 1.5 TOs/game
Wsh D: 6.1 yards/play (7.5 YPP/4.3 YPC); 63.7 plays/game; 12.54 yards/point; 1.6 TOs/game
Wsh O: 5.8 yards/play (6.4 YPP/5.1 YPC); 71.0 plays/game; 16.75 yards/point; 1.8 TOs/game
SF D: 5.0 yards/play (5.7 YPP/3.9 YPC); 65.4 plays/game; 18.19 yards/point; 2.1 TOs/game
11/19/2013
11/15/2013
The Evolution of Friends
It's been quite a while since I've posted an article on here that had no reference to sports. Maybe it's because for the most part, life has been static - still no work (although I feel like I'm getting closer to getting work). No work equates to lessening of doing much on the social end of things - less going out to eat, less bar visits, and sadly, the elimination of being a regular member of a bowling team (I am a sub this year instead). So yeah - not much going on that's sparked my mind to write.
But just now, an idea sprung up as I was staring at my Twitter account 10 minutes shy of 4am local time. I was reminded of one avenue of my life that has probably occupied way too much of my time in the past few months, yet has had a great effect on my daily life - and that is Twitter itself.
And it got me to thinking about the evolution of my friendships, starting all the way from my early years as a 4-5 year old to now and how it's all somehow merged into the current life that I live.
I've found seven distinct times in my life of friendships. For the purposes of this blog, I have not mentioned family specifically (even though I consider many in my family to be friends), for I was born into it - you are assumed to be in the range of ages 0 thru current.
1. The Mister Rodgers Friends (ages 4 thru 8) - This is the group of friends who I grew up with, the guys who lived on the block or within a few blocks of my house. The neighborhood friends. Playing ball in front of the house, running around with endless energy, and the random games played, these friends defined the first part of my life. While I still have a couple of friends who I still talk to from this time in my life, unfortunately many of these friends moved away from my neighborhood at a young age before I could get to know them as teenagers and eventually adults. Maybe it was for the better - they could be raging douche bags right now for all I know. The others I lost touch with from this time were usually the product of changed social circles in future school years.
2. The Sports/Club Friends (ages 8 thru 18) - This span of time includes an "amazing" athletic career that spanned glorious Little League seasons and a few less-than-glorious basketball seasons (go ahead, look at the trophies I won, hell if I even know where they are). These seasons ranged from sitting on the bench for the majority of a travelling All-Star team (at the age of 8, I learned very quickly on how badly adults want to win Little League games) to prouder moments, such as a game-winning hit in one of the first night baseball games I ever played (an All-Star match-up between neighboring towns). In between all of these moments developed my second group of buddies. With each baseball level spanning two grades, the only group of kids you ever got to play with every year were the guys in your grade, but I still got to know the kids a year older and a year younger fairly well.
Looking back on it, I don't think I kept many friends from this era of my life either, except when you head into the latter half of the time frame and you focus on the limited clubs I was in during high school. In lieu of athletic talent that translated to making a high school team, I was a Mathlete. I'm not really sure how I managed to go through junior high and high school as a Math nerd while avoiding being picked on or bullied, but here I sit, glad I don't have the mental scars that may come from that. A few friends of mine from Mathletes (Nick and Chris) are important figures in my life - for they inspired my participation in Fit Happens, a weight loss contest that spanned the first half of the year and led to me losing about 35 pounds (sadly, I've probably put back 15-20 since the contest ended). We also interact constantly during the NFL season, even if it's as indirect as participating in a year-long NFL contest for a few years running now. Outside of them though, no friends from this era remain.
3. The Work Friends (Ages 16-17) - While I didn't know it at the time, when I was applying for jobs in the summer of 1999 in hopes of landing my first job as a teenager with a license, I was actually applying for who I was going to spend my adulthood with (and basically applying for the rest of my life). Had another company other than Jewel/Osco (a Chicago-based grocery story) called my parent's house and interviewed me before they did, I doubt I'd have 95% of my current friends (assuming I took the job). In fact, I remember a pizza company calling a day or two after my interview with Jewel - who would my friends be if they called before Jewel and I took that job?
With this group of friends, I drank my first full beer. I've gone on road trips and vacations. I've seen them start serious relationships, have them end, and have others start up. I've stood up in their weddings. I will see them start families. And all the in-between - the cosmic bowling, trips to Beggars Pizza, Monday Nights at Buffalo Wild Wings or a local pub.
And all of this occurs thanks to a thankless job of pushing carts (which was actually my favorite thing to do) and bagging groceries for depressing customers.
Look back on your current base of friends, and try see if you can pinpoint a turning point in your life like this. Before writing this, I didn't realize how mind-blowing this part of my life is in hindsight. I am glad Jewel called me back for an interview, and then hired me. For that $5.45 an hour, I got a whole lot more away from the job.
4. The College Friends (Ages 18-22) - Compared to the previous era of friends, this one pales in comparison. I have a few people I still speak to from U of I that are great friends, but this was a place and time that is remembered in a totally different manner. I have great memories of the dorm days, nights spent on endless hours of Mario Kart and Ladder Matches on the WWF games on my Nintendo 64. When the dorm setting transformed into an apartment life, so did the type of entertainment. Instead of video games, the prime form of fun was the small parties I threw, primarily in my junior year. Those who were lucky enough to see the dances on the mini-fridge will never forget those moments. Strangely, I think I speak with more people who came to those parties (people who went to school at the neighboring Parkland College) than I do with dormmates/classmates from UIUC.
I quickly learned after college that most of these people, especially the guys who I lived in the dorm with, were situational friends - which was probably perfect looking back.
5. The Work Friends, Part 2 (Ages 24-27) - My first professional work setting was during this time. I got this job thanks to a lead from one of my few friends from UIUC. The people I met through this time in my life saw me go through quite the transformation as a young adult, particularly towards the end of my time there. While I'd say I retain a few more friends from this point in my life than college, I would say that many fit in the same position as the college friends, where many of us were friends while working together but completely lost touch when my time there ended.
And I should stress - the situational friends should not be looked at negatively. It's a part of life actually. After all, it's impossible to remain close to that many people when you no longer see them on a daily basis. Remaining close to every person you've had at every school you've been to, every job you've had, is not possible. If you're lucky, some of the ones who are no longer on your daily/weekly routine of work/school will want to get together on a random Saturday afternoon.
6. The School Friends, Part 2 (Age 27-28) - This sequence was a shorter one, as there were fewer people involved in this specific situation. With the broadcasting program I took only occupying 10 months, the time of fraternizing was much limited compared to a 4-year university setting. I knew that I would likely never talk to many of the people I had in class with (about 20 people) once the program was over. And for the most part, it's been accurate. I set up a Facebook group for us to keep in touch, which we do occasionally. I like hearing the good stories that some of them share about work successes that are related to the radio/TV broadcasting classes we took there. And if that's the main part of our relationships going forward, that's ok. I've tried a few times after our program ended in April 2011 for us to get together, but only a few people will even show. I hope all of my friends from this era succeed in broadcasting or whatever it is they decide to do.
7. The Online Friends (Age 28 - current) - While I worked a job at this time, my office settings were such that I did not have opportunities to meet new people and participate in happy hours and other social occasions with co-workers. This also applied to my dating life. The limited number of relationships I had up until this age in my life had been of the traditional "meeting a friend of a friend and dating that person" that has probably occurred throughout time. The problem with this approach is - once you're single again, and your friends no longer have friends to introduce you to, the well dries up. And if you live in a smaller population (i.e. not a huge city like Chicago) like I did, even your options at the bars to meet new people are very limited. If you go into the same bar on the same day of the same week in the Chicago suburbs, you will notice similar faces in the bar every week. Once I noticed this fact, I knew I had to try a different approach to meeting women.
You all know the story now -> guy joins online dating website -> guy goes on a few dates -> guy falls in love with a girl -> guy's family/friends become girl's family/friends and vice versa. And with meeting Jen, I have been introduced to my latest group of friends...her friends. With as long as we've been dating though, I don't think there's debate now that they are OUR friends. There's been several times in our time dating where I will actually hang out with some of these people without Jen around. I don't feel any differently around this group than I would my own group of friends.
Also during this time, I have joined Twitter and found a limitless number interesting characters among the 140-character-limit confines of the website. I have found a niche of using Twitter to share my thoughts on sports, as well as some other random material that I normally wouldn't post on Facebook.
One of the most different features of Twitter that Facebook has somewhat installed on its end is the ability to follow someone without them having to follow you - or to more accurately describe the benefit, the opposite should be mentioned - someone can choose to follow your content and what you say, but the follow back is not necessarily a given (while in a Facebook "friendship", you have equal access to their profile as they do of yours [unless you set up some customized security stuff on the side]). Why is this nice? Personally, I get a kick out of someone, anyone, giving two craps about what I think or say about a subject. Some might be following me just to see who I like in the weekly slate of NFL games - and hey, that's fine too, but maybe it's the narcissistic element of "hey, someone gives a damn what I think about something, and I've never met them face-to-face or even talked to about 90% of these people" that makes me pause and realize the power that this social media has.
But just now, an idea sprung up as I was staring at my Twitter account 10 minutes shy of 4am local time. I was reminded of one avenue of my life that has probably occupied way too much of my time in the past few months, yet has had a great effect on my daily life - and that is Twitter itself.
I've found seven distinct times in my life of friendships. For the purposes of this blog, I have not mentioned family specifically (even though I consider many in my family to be friends), for I was born into it - you are assumed to be in the range of ages 0 thru current.
1. The Mister Rodgers Friends (ages 4 thru 8) - This is the group of friends who I grew up with, the guys who lived on the block or within a few blocks of my house. The neighborhood friends. Playing ball in front of the house, running around with endless energy, and the random games played, these friends defined the first part of my life. While I still have a couple of friends who I still talk to from this time in my life, unfortunately many of these friends moved away from my neighborhood at a young age before I could get to know them as teenagers and eventually adults. Maybe it was for the better - they could be raging douche bags right now for all I know. The others I lost touch with from this time were usually the product of changed social circles in future school years.
2. The Sports/Club Friends (ages 8 thru 18) - This span of time includes an "amazing" athletic career that spanned glorious Little League seasons and a few less-than-glorious basketball seasons (go ahead, look at the trophies I won, hell if I even know where they are). These seasons ranged from sitting on the bench for the majority of a travelling All-Star team (at the age of 8, I learned very quickly on how badly adults want to win Little League games) to prouder moments, such as a game-winning hit in one of the first night baseball games I ever played (an All-Star match-up between neighboring towns). In between all of these moments developed my second group of buddies. With each baseball level spanning two grades, the only group of kids you ever got to play with every year were the guys in your grade, but I still got to know the kids a year older and a year younger fairly well.
Looking back on it, I don't think I kept many friends from this era of my life either, except when you head into the latter half of the time frame and you focus on the limited clubs I was in during high school. In lieu of athletic talent that translated to making a high school team, I was a Mathlete. I'm not really sure how I managed to go through junior high and high school as a Math nerd while avoiding being picked on or bullied, but here I sit, glad I don't have the mental scars that may come from that. A few friends of mine from Mathletes (Nick and Chris) are important figures in my life - for they inspired my participation in Fit Happens, a weight loss contest that spanned the first half of the year and led to me losing about 35 pounds (sadly, I've probably put back 15-20 since the contest ended). We also interact constantly during the NFL season, even if it's as indirect as participating in a year-long NFL contest for a few years running now. Outside of them though, no friends from this era remain.
3. The Work Friends (Ages 16-17) - While I didn't know it at the time, when I was applying for jobs in the summer of 1999 in hopes of landing my first job as a teenager with a license, I was actually applying for who I was going to spend my adulthood with (and basically applying for the rest of my life). Had another company other than Jewel/Osco (a Chicago-based grocery story) called my parent's house and interviewed me before they did, I doubt I'd have 95% of my current friends (assuming I took the job). In fact, I remember a pizza company calling a day or two after my interview with Jewel - who would my friends be if they called before Jewel and I took that job?
 |
| My friend and his wife (I'm two guys away from the groom) |
And all of this occurs thanks to a thankless job of pushing carts (which was actually my favorite thing to do) and bagging groceries for depressing customers.
Look back on your current base of friends, and try see if you can pinpoint a turning point in your life like this. Before writing this, I didn't realize how mind-blowing this part of my life is in hindsight. I am glad Jewel called me back for an interview, and then hired me. For that $5.45 an hour, I got a whole lot more away from the job.
4. The College Friends (Ages 18-22) - Compared to the previous era of friends, this one pales in comparison. I have a few people I still speak to from U of I that are great friends, but this was a place and time that is remembered in a totally different manner. I have great memories of the dorm days, nights spent on endless hours of Mario Kart and Ladder Matches on the WWF games on my Nintendo 64. When the dorm setting transformed into an apartment life, so did the type of entertainment. Instead of video games, the prime form of fun was the small parties I threw, primarily in my junior year. Those who were lucky enough to see the dances on the mini-fridge will never forget those moments. Strangely, I think I speak with more people who came to those parties (people who went to school at the neighboring Parkland College) than I do with dormmates/classmates from UIUC.I quickly learned after college that most of these people, especially the guys who I lived in the dorm with, were situational friends - which was probably perfect looking back.
5. The Work Friends, Part 2 (Ages 24-27) - My first professional work setting was during this time. I got this job thanks to a lead from one of my few friends from UIUC. The people I met through this time in my life saw me go through quite the transformation as a young adult, particularly towards the end of my time there. While I'd say I retain a few more friends from this point in my life than college, I would say that many fit in the same position as the college friends, where many of us were friends while working together but completely lost touch when my time there ended.
And I should stress - the situational friends should not be looked at negatively. It's a part of life actually. After all, it's impossible to remain close to that many people when you no longer see them on a daily basis. Remaining close to every person you've had at every school you've been to, every job you've had, is not possible. If you're lucky, some of the ones who are no longer on your daily/weekly routine of work/school will want to get together on a random Saturday afternoon.
6. The School Friends, Part 2 (Age 27-28) - This sequence was a shorter one, as there were fewer people involved in this specific situation. With the broadcasting program I took only occupying 10 months, the time of fraternizing was much limited compared to a 4-year university setting. I knew that I would likely never talk to many of the people I had in class with (about 20 people) once the program was over. And for the most part, it's been accurate. I set up a Facebook group for us to keep in touch, which we do occasionally. I like hearing the good stories that some of them share about work successes that are related to the radio/TV broadcasting classes we took there. And if that's the main part of our relationships going forward, that's ok. I've tried a few times after our program ended in April 2011 for us to get together, but only a few people will even show. I hope all of my friends from this era succeed in broadcasting or whatever it is they decide to do.
7. The Online Friends (Age 28 - current) - While I worked a job at this time, my office settings were such that I did not have opportunities to meet new people and participate in happy hours and other social occasions with co-workers. This also applied to my dating life. The limited number of relationships I had up until this age in my life had been of the traditional "meeting a friend of a friend and dating that person" that has probably occurred throughout time. The problem with this approach is - once you're single again, and your friends no longer have friends to introduce you to, the well dries up. And if you live in a smaller population (i.e. not a huge city like Chicago) like I did, even your options at the bars to meet new people are very limited. If you go into the same bar on the same day of the same week in the Chicago suburbs, you will notice similar faces in the bar every week. Once I noticed this fact, I knew I had to try a different approach to meeting women.
 |
| Me and Jen as Peg & Al Bundy for Halloween 2011 |
You all know the story now -> guy joins online dating website -> guy goes on a few dates -> guy falls in love with a girl -> guy's family/friends become girl's family/friends and vice versa. And with meeting Jen, I have been introduced to my latest group of friends...her friends. With as long as we've been dating though, I don't think there's debate now that they are OUR friends. There's been several times in our time dating where I will actually hang out with some of these people without Jen around. I don't feel any differently around this group than I would my own group of friends.
Also during this time, I have joined Twitter and found a limitless number interesting characters among the 140-character-limit confines of the website. I have found a niche of using Twitter to share my thoughts on sports, as well as some other random material that I normally wouldn't post on Facebook.
One of the most different features of Twitter that Facebook has somewhat installed on its end is the ability to follow someone without them having to follow you - or to more accurately describe the benefit, the opposite should be mentioned - someone can choose to follow your content and what you say, but the follow back is not necessarily a given (while in a Facebook "friendship", you have equal access to their profile as they do of yours [unless you set up some customized security stuff on the side]). Why is this nice? Personally, I get a kick out of someone, anyone, giving two craps about what I think or say about a subject. Some might be following me just to see who I like in the weekly slate of NFL games - and hey, that's fine too, but maybe it's the narcissistic element of "hey, someone gives a damn what I think about something, and I've never met them face-to-face or even talked to about 90% of these people" that makes me pause and realize the power that this social media has.
11/14/2013
Week 11 Picks Go Here
Week 11 Picks
Ten +2.5 (+100) (1.5 to win 1.5) & ML (+123) (0.5 to win 0.615) - L (-2.0)
Atl -2.5 (-110) (2.2 to win 2.0) - L (-2.2)
Buf -1.5 (-110) (2.2 to win 2.0) - W (+2.0)
Jax +8.5 (-110) (1.1 to win 1.0) - L (-1.1)
Wash +4.5 (-105) (1.575 to win 1.5) & ML (+190) (0.5 to win 0.95) - L (-2.075)
GB +3 (+105) (1.5 to win 1.575) & ML (+170) (0.5 to win 0.85) - L (-2.0)
NE +3 (-105) (2.1 to win 2.0) & ML (+145) (0.5 to win 0.725) - L (-2.6)
Pleaser Round Robin
PLEASER (-6.5 ADDED from current line) Wash -1.5/Buf -5.5 (0.3/1.95)
PLEASER (-6.5 ADDED from current line) Buf -5.5/Atl -5.5 (0.3/1.95)
PLEASER (-6.5 ADDED from current line) Atl -5.5/Wash -1.5 (0.3/1.95)
Week 11 Results: (1-9, -10.675)
Ten +2.5 (+100) (1.5 to win 1.5) & ML (+123) (0.5 to win 0.615) - L (-2.0)
Atl -2.5 (-110) (2.2 to win 2.0) - L (-2.2)
Buf -1.5 (-110) (2.2 to win 2.0) - W (+2.0)
Jax +8.5 (-110) (1.1 to win 1.0) - L (-1.1)
Wash +4.5 (-105) (1.575 to win 1.5) & ML (+190) (0.5 to win 0.95) - L (-2.075)
GB +3 (+105) (1.5 to win 1.575) & ML (+170) (0.5 to win 0.85) - L (-2.0)
NE +3 (-105) (2.1 to win 2.0) & ML (+145) (0.5 to win 0.725) - L (-2.6)
Pleaser Round Robin
PLEASER (-6.5 ADDED from current line) Wash -1.5/Buf -5.5 (0.3/1.95)
PLEASER (-6.5 ADDED from current line) Buf -5.5/Atl -5.5 (0.3/1.95)
PLEASER (-6.5 ADDED from current line) Atl -5.5/Wash -1.5 (0.3/1.95)
Week 11 Results: (1-9, -10.675)
*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing.
YTD: (50-47, +6.296)
Futures
Ten to win AFC South (+900) - 0.4 to win 3.60 (11/14/13)
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13
11/13/2013
Week 11 Match-Ups By The Numbers
Week 11 Match-Ups by the Numbers
Adding a few numbers here and there. Still trying to figure out how to apply new data into capping. If you have any ideas, please let me know. I have @hustledouble helping me out right now with the application and potential testing of data such as Yards per Point (the lower the number on offense, the better for the offense, vice versa for defense). I will re-add turnovers/game next week. For some reason, when transferring numbers from one spreadsheet to the other, some stats got jumbled up, and I didn't feel like re-adding them.
YPP = Yards per Pass; YPR = Yards Per Run
Indy -3 at Tenn
Indy O: 5.5 yards/play (6.3 YPP/4.4 YPR); 63.1 plays/game; 14.11 yards/pt
Ten D: 5.2 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.1 YPR); 63.1 plays/game; 14.98 yards/pt
Ten O: 5.1 yards/play (6.0 YPP/4.0 YPR); 63.2 plays/game; 14.53 yards/pt
Indy D: 5.8 yards/play (7.0 YPP/4.3 YPR); 63.4 plays/game; 17.15 yards/pt
Atl -2.5 at TB
Atl O: 5.6 yards/play (6.4 YPP/3.5 YPR); 61.1 plays/game; 16.42 yards/pt
TB D: 5.3 yards/play (6.4 YPP/3.8 YPR); 62.7 plays/game; 14.33 yards/pt
TB O: 4.6 yards/play (5.0 YPP/4.0 YPR); 65.7 plays/game; 18.47 yards/pt
Atl D: 6.0 yards/play (7.1 YPP/4.6 YPR); 63.1 plays/game; 13.58 yards/pt
NYJ at Buf (-1.5)
NYJ O: 5.0 yards/play (5.8 YPP/4.2 YPR); 65.7 plays/game; 17.64 yards/pt
Buf D: 5.1 yards/play (6.0 YPP/4.0 YPR); 69.6 plays/game; 13.74 yards/pt
Buf O: 4.7 yards/play (5.0 YPP/4.3 YPR); 70.7 plays/game; 16.72 yards/pt
NYJ D: 5.0 yards/play (6.0 YPP/3.1 YPR); 65.1 plays/game; 12.67 yards/pt
Detroit -2 at Pitt
Det O: 6.0 yards/play (7.2 YPP/4.0 YPR); 68.6 plays/game; 15.51 yards/pt
Pit D: 5.2 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.2 YPR); 62.8 plays/game; 13.56 yards/pt
Pit O: 5.3 yards/play (6.1 YPP/3.6 YPR); 68.6 plays/game; 16.95 yards/pt
Det D: 6.0 yards/play (6.8 YPP/4.5 YPR); 63.2 plays/game; 15.68 yards/pt
Wash at Phil -3.5
Wash O: 5.8 yards/play (6.4 YPP/5.1 YPR); 70.3 plays/game; 16.06 yards/pt
Phil D: 5.6 yards/play (6.5 YPP/4.0 YPR); 74.7 plays/game; 17.09 yards/pt
Phil O: 6.3 yards/play (7.3 YPP/5.1 YPR); 65.7 plays/game; 16.40 yards/pt
Wash D: 6.1 yards/play (7.3 YPP/4.3 YPR); 63.9 plays/game; 12.18 yards/pt
Balt at Chi (-3)
Balt O: 4.5 yards/play (5.6 YPP/2.8 YPR); 68 plays/game; 14.72 yards/pt
Chi D: 6.1 yards/play (7.5 YPP/4.5 YPR); 61.9 plays/game; 13.82 yards/pt
Chi O: 5.9 yards/play (6.7 YPP/4.5 YPR); 63.3 plays/game; 12.95 yards/pt
Balt D: 5.1 yards/play (6.1 YPP/3.7 YPR); 66.9 plays/game; 16.30 yards/pt
Cle at Cin (-5.5)
Cle O: 4.8 yards/play (5.3 YPP/3.7 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 16.58 yards/pt
Cin D: 4.7 yards/play (5.2 YPP/3.9 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 16.74 yards/pt
Cin O: 5.4 yards/play (6.6 YPP/3.8 YPC); 69.7 plays/game; 16.18 yards/pt
Cle D: 4.5 yards/play (5.1 YPP/3.6 YPC); 70.0 plays/game; 14.42 yards/pt
Oak at Hou (-7.5)
Oak O: 5.2 yards/play (5.4 YPP/4.9 YPR); 63.6 plays/game; 17.93 yards/pt
Hou D: 4.9 yards/play (5.7 YPP/4.1 YPR); 57.1 plays/game; 10.16 yards/pt
Hou O: 5.3 yards/play (5.9 YPP/4.4 YPR); 70.6 plays/game; 19.92 yards/pt
Oak D: 5.4 yards/play (6.7 YPP/3.7 YPR); 63.4 plays/game; 13.94 yards/pt
Ari -6.5 at Jax
Ari O: 5.1 yards/play (5.9 YPP/4.0 YPR); 61.6 plays/game; 15.23 plays/pt
Jax D: 5.9 yards/play (7.1 YPP/4.6 YPR) 66.1 plays/game; 12.03 plays/pt
Jax O: 4.4 yards/play (5.4 YPP/2.8 YPR); 63 plays/game; 21.79 plays/pt
Ari D: 4.8 yards/play (5.6 YPP/3.5 YPR); 68.2 plays/game; 15.02 plays/pt
SD -1.5 at Mia
SD O: 6.0 yards/play (7.6 YPP/3.8 YPR); 65.8 plays/game; 16.79 yards/pt
Mia D: 5.1 yards/play (6.0 YPP/3.9 YPR); 70.2 plays/game; 15.38 yards/pt
Mia O: 4.9 yards/play (5.3 YPP/4.0 YPR); 62.6 plays/game; 14.17 yards/pt
SD D: 6.4 yards/play (7.5 YPP/4.8 YPR); 61.2 plays/game; 17.56 yards/pt
Min at Sea -12.5
Min O: 5.3 yards/play (5.7 YPP/4.7 YPR); 59.8 plays/game; 12.91 yards/pt
Sea D: 4.6 yards/play (4.9 YPP/4.2 YPR); 62.7 plays/game; 18.18 yards/pt
Sea O: 5.8 yards/play (7.1 YPP/4.6 YPR); 62.3 plays/game; 13.66 yards/pt
Min D: 5.6 yards/play (6.6 YPP/4.0 YPR); 71.9 plays/game; 12.88 yards/pt
GB at NYG -6
GB O: 6.3 yards/play (7.4 YPP/4.8 YPR); 67 plays/game; 15.43 yards/pt
NYG D: 4.8 yards/play (5.6 YPP/3.7 YPR); 68.1 plays/game; 12.21 yards/pt
NYG O: 5.0 yards/play (6.1 YPP/3.2 YPR); 63.2 plays/game; 17.41 yards/pt
GB D: 5.7 yards/play (6.7 YPP/4.2 YPR); 62 plays/game; 14.97 yards/pt
SF at NO -3
SF O: 5.4 yards/play (6.5 YPP/4.5 YPR); 59.6 plays/game; 12.74 yards/pt
NO D: 5.4 yards/play (5.7 YPP/5.0 YPR); 58.9 plays/game; 17.53 yards/pt
NO O: 6.2 yards/play (7.6 YPP/3.8 YPR); 68.1 plays/game; 14.35 yards/pt
SF D: 4.9 yards/play (5.5 YPP/3.9 YPR); 65.2 plays/game; 18.39 yards/pt
KC at Den -8
KC O: 4.8 yards/play (5.2 YPP/4.2 YPR); 66.2 plays/game; 13.28 yards/pt
Den D: 5.5 yards/play (6.8 YPP/3.4 YPR); 67.8 plays/game; 14.18 yards/pt
Den O: 6.4 yards/play (8.3 YPP/3.7 YPR); 71.2 plays/game; 11.13 yards/pt
KC D: 5.1 yards/play (5.2 YPP/5.0 YPR); 63.9 plays/game; 26.50 yards/pt
NE at Car -2.5
NE O: 5.1 yards/play (5.7 YPP/4.4 YPR); 70.3 plays/game; 13.89 yards/pt
Car D: 4.8 yards/play (5.4 YPP/3.8 YPR); 58.8 plays/game; 22.17 yards/pt
Car O: 5.0 yards/play (5.9 YPP/4.0 YPR); 65.3 plays/game; 13.61 yards/pt
NE D: 5.1 yards/play (5.6 YPP/4.3 YPR); 71.4 plays/game; 18.57 yards/pt
Adding a few numbers here and there. Still trying to figure out how to apply new data into capping. If you have any ideas, please let me know. I have @hustledouble helping me out right now with the application and potential testing of data such as Yards per Point (the lower the number on offense, the better for the offense, vice versa for defense). I will re-add turnovers/game next week. For some reason, when transferring numbers from one spreadsheet to the other, some stats got jumbled up, and I didn't feel like re-adding them.
YPP = Yards per Pass; YPR = Yards Per Run
Indy -3 at Tenn
Indy O: 5.5 yards/play (6.3 YPP/4.4 YPR); 63.1 plays/game; 14.11 yards/pt
Ten D: 5.2 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.1 YPR); 63.1 plays/game; 14.98 yards/pt
Ten O: 5.1 yards/play (6.0 YPP/4.0 YPR); 63.2 plays/game; 14.53 yards/pt
Indy D: 5.8 yards/play (7.0 YPP/4.3 YPR); 63.4 plays/game; 17.15 yards/pt
Atl -2.5 at TB
Atl O: 5.6 yards/play (6.4 YPP/3.5 YPR); 61.1 plays/game; 16.42 yards/pt
TB D: 5.3 yards/play (6.4 YPP/3.8 YPR); 62.7 plays/game; 14.33 yards/pt
TB O: 4.6 yards/play (5.0 YPP/4.0 YPR); 65.7 plays/game; 18.47 yards/pt
Atl D: 6.0 yards/play (7.1 YPP/4.6 YPR); 63.1 plays/game; 13.58 yards/pt
NYJ at Buf (-1.5)
NYJ O: 5.0 yards/play (5.8 YPP/4.2 YPR); 65.7 plays/game; 17.64 yards/pt
Buf D: 5.1 yards/play (6.0 YPP/4.0 YPR); 69.6 plays/game; 13.74 yards/pt
Buf O: 4.7 yards/play (5.0 YPP/4.3 YPR); 70.7 plays/game; 16.72 yards/pt
NYJ D: 5.0 yards/play (6.0 YPP/3.1 YPR); 65.1 plays/game; 12.67 yards/pt
Detroit -2 at Pitt
Det O: 6.0 yards/play (7.2 YPP/4.0 YPR); 68.6 plays/game; 15.51 yards/pt
Pit D: 5.2 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.2 YPR); 62.8 plays/game; 13.56 yards/pt
Pit O: 5.3 yards/play (6.1 YPP/3.6 YPR); 68.6 plays/game; 16.95 yards/pt
Det D: 6.0 yards/play (6.8 YPP/4.5 YPR); 63.2 plays/game; 15.68 yards/pt
Wash at Phil -3.5
Wash O: 5.8 yards/play (6.4 YPP/5.1 YPR); 70.3 plays/game; 16.06 yards/pt
Phil D: 5.6 yards/play (6.5 YPP/4.0 YPR); 74.7 plays/game; 17.09 yards/pt
Phil O: 6.3 yards/play (7.3 YPP/5.1 YPR); 65.7 plays/game; 16.40 yards/pt
Wash D: 6.1 yards/play (7.3 YPP/4.3 YPR); 63.9 plays/game; 12.18 yards/pt
Balt at Chi (-3)
Balt O: 4.5 yards/play (5.6 YPP/2.8 YPR); 68 plays/game; 14.72 yards/pt
Chi D: 6.1 yards/play (7.5 YPP/4.5 YPR); 61.9 plays/game; 13.82 yards/pt
Chi O: 5.9 yards/play (6.7 YPP/4.5 YPR); 63.3 plays/game; 12.95 yards/pt
Balt D: 5.1 yards/play (6.1 YPP/3.7 YPR); 66.9 plays/game; 16.30 yards/pt
Cle at Cin (-5.5)
Cle O: 4.8 yards/play (5.3 YPP/3.7 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 16.58 yards/pt
Cin D: 4.7 yards/play (5.2 YPP/3.9 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 16.74 yards/pt
Cin O: 5.4 yards/play (6.6 YPP/3.8 YPC); 69.7 plays/game; 16.18 yards/pt
Cle D: 4.5 yards/play (5.1 YPP/3.6 YPC); 70.0 plays/game; 14.42 yards/pt
Oak at Hou (-7.5)
Oak O: 5.2 yards/play (5.4 YPP/4.9 YPR); 63.6 plays/game; 17.93 yards/pt
Hou D: 4.9 yards/play (5.7 YPP/4.1 YPR); 57.1 plays/game; 10.16 yards/pt
Hou O: 5.3 yards/play (5.9 YPP/4.4 YPR); 70.6 plays/game; 19.92 yards/pt
Oak D: 5.4 yards/play (6.7 YPP/3.7 YPR); 63.4 plays/game; 13.94 yards/pt
Ari -6.5 at Jax
Ari O: 5.1 yards/play (5.9 YPP/4.0 YPR); 61.6 plays/game; 15.23 plays/pt
Jax D: 5.9 yards/play (7.1 YPP/4.6 YPR) 66.1 plays/game; 12.03 plays/pt
Jax O: 4.4 yards/play (5.4 YPP/2.8 YPR); 63 plays/game; 21.79 plays/pt
Ari D: 4.8 yards/play (5.6 YPP/3.5 YPR); 68.2 plays/game; 15.02 plays/pt
SD -1.5 at Mia
SD O: 6.0 yards/play (7.6 YPP/3.8 YPR); 65.8 plays/game; 16.79 yards/pt
Mia D: 5.1 yards/play (6.0 YPP/3.9 YPR); 70.2 plays/game; 15.38 yards/pt
Mia O: 4.9 yards/play (5.3 YPP/4.0 YPR); 62.6 plays/game; 14.17 yards/pt
SD D: 6.4 yards/play (7.5 YPP/4.8 YPR); 61.2 plays/game; 17.56 yards/pt
Min at Sea -12.5
Min O: 5.3 yards/play (5.7 YPP/4.7 YPR); 59.8 plays/game; 12.91 yards/pt
Sea D: 4.6 yards/play (4.9 YPP/4.2 YPR); 62.7 plays/game; 18.18 yards/pt
Sea O: 5.8 yards/play (7.1 YPP/4.6 YPR); 62.3 plays/game; 13.66 yards/pt
Min D: 5.6 yards/play (6.6 YPP/4.0 YPR); 71.9 plays/game; 12.88 yards/pt
GB at NYG -6
GB O: 6.3 yards/play (7.4 YPP/4.8 YPR); 67 plays/game; 15.43 yards/pt
NYG D: 4.8 yards/play (5.6 YPP/3.7 YPR); 68.1 plays/game; 12.21 yards/pt
NYG O: 5.0 yards/play (6.1 YPP/3.2 YPR); 63.2 plays/game; 17.41 yards/pt
GB D: 5.7 yards/play (6.7 YPP/4.2 YPR); 62 plays/game; 14.97 yards/pt
SF at NO -3
SF O: 5.4 yards/play (6.5 YPP/4.5 YPR); 59.6 plays/game; 12.74 yards/pt
NO D: 5.4 yards/play (5.7 YPP/5.0 YPR); 58.9 plays/game; 17.53 yards/pt
NO O: 6.2 yards/play (7.6 YPP/3.8 YPR); 68.1 plays/game; 14.35 yards/pt
SF D: 4.9 yards/play (5.5 YPP/3.9 YPR); 65.2 plays/game; 18.39 yards/pt
KC at Den -8
KC O: 4.8 yards/play (5.2 YPP/4.2 YPR); 66.2 plays/game; 13.28 yards/pt
Den D: 5.5 yards/play (6.8 YPP/3.4 YPR); 67.8 plays/game; 14.18 yards/pt
Den O: 6.4 yards/play (8.3 YPP/3.7 YPR); 71.2 plays/game; 11.13 yards/pt
KC D: 5.1 yards/play (5.2 YPP/5.0 YPR); 63.9 plays/game; 26.50 yards/pt
NE at Car -2.5
NE O: 5.1 yards/play (5.7 YPP/4.4 YPR); 70.3 plays/game; 13.89 yards/pt
Car D: 4.8 yards/play (5.4 YPP/3.8 YPR); 58.8 plays/game; 22.17 yards/pt
Car O: 5.0 yards/play (5.9 YPP/4.0 YPR); 65.3 plays/game; 13.61 yards/pt
NE D: 5.1 yards/play (5.6 YPP/4.3 YPR); 71.4 plays/game; 18.57 yards/pt
11/07/2013
The Rise of the Rookie Receiver?
Back in my day...
I have this old-man phrase in my head as I was thinking of rookie running backs and how they've gone (or at least seemed to have gone) from highly-wanted commodities to mid-round fodder in NFL drafts in my lifetime. Given the rule changes that favor explosive passing games, it's not much of a shock to see this happening. (an aside: what's more shocking is the lack of shock for Indianapolis trading a FIRST-ROUND pick for a running back this season)
This year, there's a couple of rookies making noise - Eddie Lacy and Zac Stacy are the first who come to mind. But only those two backs and possibly Le'Veon Bell even have a chance at cracking the 800 yard mark.
A year to year breakdown of rookie tail backs who've ran for 800+ yards (at least 50 yards/team game) shows this trend of their declining value (with highest rookie in parenthesis):
1993: 3 backs (Jerome Bettis 1429)
1994: 3 backs (Marshall Faulk 1282)
1995: 4 backs (Curtis Martin 1487)
1996: 2 backs (Eddie George 1368)
1997: 4 backs (Corey Dillon 1129)
1998: 2 backs (Fred Taylor 1223)
1999: 3 backs (Edgerrin James 1553)
2000: 2 backs (Mike Anderson 1487)
2001: 3 backs (LaDainian Tomlinson 1236)
2002: 2 backs (Clinton Portis 1508)
(Total of 28 players, highs ranging from 1129 to 1508)
2003: 1 back (Domanick Williams 1031)
2004: 3 backs (Willis McGahee 1128)
2005: 2 backs (Cadillac Williams 1178)
2006: 2 backs (Joseph Addai 1081)
2007: 3 backs (Adrian Peterson 1341)
2008: 4 backs (Matt Forte 1238)
2009: 1 back (Knowshon Moreno 947)
2010: 1 back (LeGarrette Blount 1007)
2011: 2 backs (Ben Tate 942)
2012: 5 backs* (Alfred Morris 1613)
(Total of 24 players, highs ranging from 942 to 1613)
*includes a non-running back (RG3)
Now, the rookie receivers who have broken the 800+ yard barrier in that time:
1993: 1 (Terry Kirby 874)* (highest WR - James Jett 771)
1994: 2 (Darnay Scott 866)
1995: 3 (Joey Galloway 1039)
1996: 4 (Terry Glenn 1132)
1997: 0 (highest - Rae Carruth 545)
1998: 1 (Randy Moss 1313)
1999: 1 (Kevin Johnson 986)
2000: 0 (highest - Darrell Jackson 713)
2001: 1 (Chris Chambers 883)
2002: 1 (Jeremy Shockey 894)** (highest WR - Antonio Bryant 733)
(Total of 14 players, highs ranging from 545 to 1313)
*running back
**tight end
2003: 2 (Anquan Boldin 1377)
2004: 3 (Michael Clayton 1193)
2005: 0 (highest - Reggie Brown 571)
2006: 2 (Marques Colston 1038)
2007: 1 (Dwayne Bowe 995)
2008: 2 (Eddie Royal 998)
2009: 0 (highest - Hakeem Nicks/Percy Harvin - 790)
2010: 2 (Mike Williams 964)
2011: 3 (AJ Green 1057)
2012: 3 (Justin Blackmon 865)
(Total of 18 players, highs ranging from 571 to 1377)
The numbers aren't completely there yet, but the last three years (with at least 2 receivers gaining 800+ yards) show a potential trend in the making. So far in 2013, there are six players (including tight end Jordan Reed) averaging over 45 receiving yards a game, which would blow any of these previous seasons out of the water.
While there has been a rookie running back with at least 800 yards every season in the past 20 years, there doesn't seem to be as many consistent workhorse running backs coming out of college. One major reason for that could be the NFL mirroring the college game (more two-back systems and much more focus on the passing game than ever before). Last year showed a sudden uptick in big efforts from rookie backs, but will that continue? Ultimately, I think 2012 will be proven to be the exception.
I believe this trend will continue (rising numbers in rookie wideouts and lowered numbers in rookie backs) for the foreseeable future, as the rule changes in the recent past indicate a heavy emphasis on protecting quarterbacks and wide receivers from huge hits.
I have this old-man phrase in my head as I was thinking of rookie running backs and how they've gone (or at least seemed to have gone) from highly-wanted commodities to mid-round fodder in NFL drafts in my lifetime. Given the rule changes that favor explosive passing games, it's not much of a shock to see this happening. (an aside: what's more shocking is the lack of shock for Indianapolis trading a FIRST-ROUND pick for a running back this season)
This year, there's a couple of rookies making noise - Eddie Lacy and Zac Stacy are the first who come to mind. But only those two backs and possibly Le'Veon Bell even have a chance at cracking the 800 yard mark.
A year to year breakdown of rookie tail backs who've ran for 800+ yards (at least 50 yards/team game) shows this trend of their declining value (with highest rookie in parenthesis):
1993: 3 backs (Jerome Bettis 1429)
 |
| Edgerrin James |
1995: 4 backs (Curtis Martin 1487)
1996: 2 backs (Eddie George 1368)
1997: 4 backs (Corey Dillon 1129)
1998: 2 backs (Fred Taylor 1223)
1999: 3 backs (Edgerrin James 1553)
2000: 2 backs (Mike Anderson 1487)
2001: 3 backs (LaDainian Tomlinson 1236)
2002: 2 backs (Clinton Portis 1508)
(Total of 28 players, highs ranging from 1129 to 1508)
2003: 1 back (Domanick Williams 1031)
2004: 3 backs (Willis McGahee 1128)
2005: 2 backs (Cadillac Williams 1178)
 |
| Alfred Morris |
2007: 3 backs (Adrian Peterson 1341)
2008: 4 backs (Matt Forte 1238)
2009: 1 back (Knowshon Moreno 947)
2010: 1 back (LeGarrette Blount 1007)
2011: 2 backs (Ben Tate 942)
2012: 5 backs* (Alfred Morris 1613)
(Total of 24 players, highs ranging from 942 to 1613)
*includes a non-running back (RG3)
Now, the rookie receivers who have broken the 800+ yard barrier in that time:
 |
| Randall Moss |
1993: 1 (Terry Kirby 874)* (highest WR - James Jett 771)
1994: 2 (Darnay Scott 866)
1995: 3 (Joey Galloway 1039)
1996: 4 (Terry Glenn 1132)
1997: 0 (highest - Rae Carruth 545)
1998: 1 (Randy Moss 1313)
1999: 1 (Kevin Johnson 986)
2000: 0 (highest - Darrell Jackson 713)
2001: 1 (Chris Chambers 883)
2002: 1 (Jeremy Shockey 894)** (highest WR - Antonio Bryant 733)
(Total of 14 players, highs ranging from 545 to 1313)
*running back
**tight end
2003: 2 (Anquan Boldin 1377)
 |
| Anquan Boldin |
2005: 0 (highest - Reggie Brown 571)
2006: 2 (Marques Colston 1038)
2007: 1 (Dwayne Bowe 995)
2008: 2 (Eddie Royal 998)
2009: 0 (highest - Hakeem Nicks/Percy Harvin - 790)
2010: 2 (Mike Williams 964)
2011: 3 (AJ Green 1057)
2012: 3 (Justin Blackmon 865)
(Total of 18 players, highs ranging from 571 to 1377)
The numbers aren't completely there yet, but the last three years (with at least 2 receivers gaining 800+ yards) show a potential trend in the making. So far in 2013, there are six players (including tight end Jordan Reed) averaging over 45 receiving yards a game, which would blow any of these previous seasons out of the water.
While there has been a rookie running back with at least 800 yards every season in the past 20 years, there doesn't seem to be as many consistent workhorse running backs coming out of college. One major reason for that could be the NFL mirroring the college game (more two-back systems and much more focus on the passing game than ever before). Last year showed a sudden uptick in big efforts from rookie backs, but will that continue? Ultimately, I think 2012 will be proven to be the exception.
I believe this trend will continue (rising numbers in rookie wideouts and lowered numbers in rookie backs) for the foreseeable future, as the rule changes in the recent past indicate a heavy emphasis on protecting quarterbacks and wide receivers from huge hits.
11/06/2013
Week 10 Picks Go Here
Week 10 Picks (So Far)
Min ML (+105) - (1.2 to win 1.26) - W (+1.26)
Green Bay +1.5 - (1.07 to win 1.0) & ML (+109) - (0.5 to win 0.545) - L (-1.57)
Baltimore ML (+105) - (2.0 to win 2.1) - W (+2.10)
Carolina +6.5 - (1.65 to win 1.5) - W (+1.50)
San Diego +7 - (2.2 to win 2.0) - L (-2.20)
Dallas +6.5 - (2.1 to win 2.0) - L (-2.10)
Mia/TB Under 40.5 (0.848/0.8 & Under 37.5 (0.5/0.61) & Under 34.5 (0.4/0.696) & Under 30.5 (0.3/0.927) - L (-2.048)
Week Results - 3-4, -3.058
Min ML (+105) - (1.2 to win 1.26) - W (+1.26)
Green Bay +1.5 - (1.07 to win 1.0) & ML (+109) - (0.5 to win 0.545) - L (-1.57)
Baltimore ML (+105) - (2.0 to win 2.1) - W (+2.10)
Carolina +6.5 - (1.65 to win 1.5) - W (+1.50)
San Diego +7 - (2.2 to win 2.0) - L (-2.20)
Dallas +6.5 - (2.1 to win 2.0) - L (-2.10)
Mia/TB Under 40.5 (0.848/0.8 & Under 37.5 (0.5/0.61) & Under 34.5 (0.4/0.696) & Under 30.5 (0.3/0.927) - L (-2.048)
Week Results - 3-4, -3.058
*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing.
YTD: (49-38, +16.971)
Week 10 Match-Ups by the Numbers
As many of you who read this know, I like to look at yards/play stats & number of plays to see if there's any advantages on the sides or totals of games. All numbers gathered from pro-football-reference.com:
YPP = yards/pass; YPC = yards/carry
Washington (-2.5) at Minnesota (Thurs Night)
Wash O: 5.9 yards/play (6.5 YPP/5.0 YPC); 69.5 plays/game; 2 TOs/game
Min D: 5.5 yards/play (6.7 YPP/3.8 YPC); 71.3 plays/game; 1.8 TOs/game
Min O: 5.2 yards/play (5.5 YPP/4.8 YPC); 60.8 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
Wash D: 6.1 yards/play (7.3 YPP/4.4 YPC); 65.4 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Jacksonville at Tennessee (-11.5)
Jax O: 4.5 yards/play (worst) (5.3 YPP/3.0 YPC); 63.9 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Ten D: 5.3 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.4 YPC); 64 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Ten O: 5.1 yards/play (5.9 YPP/4.1 YPC); 62.4 plays/game; 1.1 TOs/game
Jax D: 6.0 yards/play (7.2 YPP/4.8 YPC); 65.6 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
Philadelphia at Green Bay (-1.5)
Phil O: 6.2 yards/play (7.2 YPP/5 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
GB D: 5.5 yards/play (6.5 YPP/4 YPC); 62.5 plays/game; 0.9 TOs/game
GB O: 6.4 yards/play (T-best) (7.5 YPP/5 YPC); 66 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Phil D: 5.6 yards/play (6.5 YPP/4.1 YPC); 74.7 plays/game; 1.7 TOs/game
Buffalo at Pittsburgh (-3)
Buf O: 4.8 yards/play (5.3 YPP/4.3 YPC); 71.4 plays/game; 1.8 TOs/game
Pit D: 5.4 yards/play (6.6 YPP/4.2 YPC); 62.6 plays/game; 0.8 TOs/game
Pit O: 5.4 yards/play (6.3 YPP/3.5 YPC); 63.5 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
Buf D: 5.2 yards/play (6.1 YPP/3.9 YPC); 69.9 plays/game; 1.7 TOs/game
Oakland at NY Giants (-7.5)
Oak O: 5.3 yards/play (5.7 YPP/5.0 YPC); 64.6 plays/game; 1.8 TOs/game
NYG D: 4.9 yards/play (5.8 YPP/3.6 YPC); 69.8 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
NYG O: 5.2 yards/play (6.3 YPP/3.2 YPC); 63.3 plays/game; 3.1 TOs/game
Oak D: 5.6 yards/play (6.8 YPP/3.8 YPC); 63.5 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
St. Louis at Indianapolis (-9.5)
StL O: 4.8 yards/play (5.5 YPP/3.8 YPC); 64.3 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Ind D: 5.7 yards/play (6.7 YPP/4.4 YPC); 64.5 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Ind O: 5.5 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.6 YPC); 62.4 plays/game; 0.8 TOs/game
StL D: 5.7 yards/play (6.9 YPP/4.4 YPC); 60.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Seattle (-6.5) at Atlanta
Sea O: 5.6 yards/play (6.8 YPP/4.6 YPC); 61.6 plays/game; 1.7 TOs/game
Atl D: 5.8 yards/play (6.8 YPP/4.5 YPC); 62.4 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
Atl O: 5.7 yards/play (6.7 YPP/3.5 YPC); 62 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Sea D: 4.6 yards/play (2nd) (5.0 YPP/4.2 YPC); 63.7 plays/game; 2.3 TOs/game
Cincinnati (-1.5) at Baltimore
Cin O: 5.6 yards/play (7.0 YPP/3.7 YPC); 67.8 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Bal D: 5.3 yards/play (6.5 YPP/3.7 YPC); 64.4 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Bal O: 4.8 yards/play (6.0 YPP/2.8 YPC - worst); 67.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Cin D: 4.9 yards/play (5.5 YPP/4.0 YPC); 66.1 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Carolina at San Francisco (-6.5)
Car O: 5.1 yards/play (6.2 YPP/4.0 YPC); 65.3 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
SF D: 5.0 yards/play (5.7 YPP/3.9 YPC); 65.1 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
SF O: 5.7 yards/play (7.1 YPP/4.5 YPC); 60.5 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game
Car D: 5.0 yards/play (5.8 YPP/3.7 YPC); 59.6 plays/game; 2.4 TOs/game
Houston at Arizona (-2.5)
Hou O: 5.5 yards/play (6.3 YPP/4.5 YPC); 71 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
Ari D: 5.0 yards/play (5.9 YPP/3.5 YPC); 68.4 plays/game; 2.4 TOs/game
Ari O: 5.1 yards/play (5.8 YPP/4.0 YPC); 61.5 plays/game; 2.3 TOs/game
Hou D: 4.8 yards/play (5.5 YPP/4.2 YPC); 56.5 plays/game; 0.6 TOs/game
Denver (-7) at San Diego
Den O: 6.4 yards/play (T-best) (8.3 YPP/3.7 YPC); 72.6 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
SD D: 6.4 yards/play (worst) (7.4 YPP/4.9 YPC); 61.4 plays/game; 0.6 TOs/game
SD O: 6.2 yards/play (7.8 YPP/3.8 YPC); 65.5 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game
Den D: 5.6 yards/play (6.8 YPP/3.4 YPC); 67.8 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
Dallas at New Orleans (-7) (Sunday Night)
Dal O: 5.6 yards/play (6.6 YPP/3.7 YPC); 60.9 plays/game; 1.2 TOs/game
NO D: 5.5 yards/play (5.8 YPP/4.9 YPC); 60.9 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
NO O: 6.0 yards/play (7.4 YPP/3.3 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 1.1 TOs/game
Dal D: 6.0 yards/play (6.7 YPP/4.6 YPC); 70 plays/game; 2.3 TOs/game
Miami (-2.5) at Tampa Bay (Monday Night)
Mia O: 5.0 yards/play (5.4 YPP/4.3 YPC); 63.1 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
TB D: 5.5 yards/play (6.6 YPP/4.0 YPC); 63.3 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
TB O: 4.6 yards/play (4.9 YPP/4.1 YPC); 66.4 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Mia D: 5.2 yards/play (6.0 YPP/4.0 YPC); 71.5 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
YPP = yards/pass; YPC = yards/carry
Washington (-2.5) at Minnesota (Thurs Night)
Wash O: 5.9 yards/play (6.5 YPP/5.0 YPC); 69.5 plays/game; 2 TOs/game
Min D: 5.5 yards/play (6.7 YPP/3.8 YPC); 71.3 plays/game; 1.8 TOs/game
Min O: 5.2 yards/play (5.5 YPP/4.8 YPC); 60.8 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
Wash D: 6.1 yards/play (7.3 YPP/4.4 YPC); 65.4 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Jacksonville at Tennessee (-11.5)
Jax O: 4.5 yards/play (worst) (5.3 YPP/3.0 YPC); 63.9 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Ten D: 5.3 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.4 YPC); 64 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Ten O: 5.1 yards/play (5.9 YPP/4.1 YPC); 62.4 plays/game; 1.1 TOs/game
Jax D: 6.0 yards/play (7.2 YPP/4.8 YPC); 65.6 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
Philadelphia at Green Bay (-1.5)
Phil O: 6.2 yards/play (7.2 YPP/5 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
GB D: 5.5 yards/play (6.5 YPP/4 YPC); 62.5 plays/game; 0.9 TOs/game
GB O: 6.4 yards/play (T-best) (7.5 YPP/5 YPC); 66 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Phil D: 5.6 yards/play (6.5 YPP/4.1 YPC); 74.7 plays/game; 1.7 TOs/game
Buffalo at Pittsburgh (-3)
Buf O: 4.8 yards/play (5.3 YPP/4.3 YPC); 71.4 plays/game; 1.8 TOs/game
Pit D: 5.4 yards/play (6.6 YPP/4.2 YPC); 62.6 plays/game; 0.8 TOs/game
Pit O: 5.4 yards/play (6.3 YPP/3.5 YPC); 63.5 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
Buf D: 5.2 yards/play (6.1 YPP/3.9 YPC); 69.9 plays/game; 1.7 TOs/game
Oakland at NY Giants (-7.5)
Oak O: 5.3 yards/play (5.7 YPP/5.0 YPC); 64.6 plays/game; 1.8 TOs/game
NYG D: 4.9 yards/play (5.8 YPP/3.6 YPC); 69.8 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
NYG O: 5.2 yards/play (6.3 YPP/3.2 YPC); 63.3 plays/game; 3.1 TOs/game
Oak D: 5.6 yards/play (6.8 YPP/3.8 YPC); 63.5 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
St. Louis at Indianapolis (-9.5)
StL O: 4.8 yards/play (5.5 YPP/3.8 YPC); 64.3 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Ind D: 5.7 yards/play (6.7 YPP/4.4 YPC); 64.5 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Ind O: 5.5 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.6 YPC); 62.4 plays/game; 0.8 TOs/game
StL D: 5.7 yards/play (6.9 YPP/4.4 YPC); 60.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Seattle (-6.5) at Atlanta
Sea O: 5.6 yards/play (6.8 YPP/4.6 YPC); 61.6 plays/game; 1.7 TOs/game
Atl D: 5.8 yards/play (6.8 YPP/4.5 YPC); 62.4 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
Atl O: 5.7 yards/play (6.7 YPP/3.5 YPC); 62 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Sea D: 4.6 yards/play (2nd) (5.0 YPP/4.2 YPC); 63.7 plays/game; 2.3 TOs/game
Cincinnati (-1.5) at Baltimore
Cin O: 5.6 yards/play (7.0 YPP/3.7 YPC); 67.8 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Bal D: 5.3 yards/play (6.5 YPP/3.7 YPC); 64.4 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Bal O: 4.8 yards/play (6.0 YPP/2.8 YPC - worst); 67.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Cin D: 4.9 yards/play (5.5 YPP/4.0 YPC); 66.1 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Carolina at San Francisco (-6.5)
Car O: 5.1 yards/play (6.2 YPP/4.0 YPC); 65.3 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
SF D: 5.0 yards/play (5.7 YPP/3.9 YPC); 65.1 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
SF O: 5.7 yards/play (7.1 YPP/4.5 YPC); 60.5 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game
Car D: 5.0 yards/play (5.8 YPP/3.7 YPC); 59.6 plays/game; 2.4 TOs/game
Houston at Arizona (-2.5)
Hou O: 5.5 yards/play (6.3 YPP/4.5 YPC); 71 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
Ari D: 5.0 yards/play (5.9 YPP/3.5 YPC); 68.4 plays/game; 2.4 TOs/game
Ari O: 5.1 yards/play (5.8 YPP/4.0 YPC); 61.5 plays/game; 2.3 TOs/game
Hou D: 4.8 yards/play (5.5 YPP/4.2 YPC); 56.5 plays/game; 0.6 TOs/game
Denver (-7) at San Diego
Den O: 6.4 yards/play (T-best) (8.3 YPP/3.7 YPC); 72.6 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
SD D: 6.4 yards/play (worst) (7.4 YPP/4.9 YPC); 61.4 plays/game; 0.6 TOs/game
SD O: 6.2 yards/play (7.8 YPP/3.8 YPC); 65.5 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game
Den D: 5.6 yards/play (6.8 YPP/3.4 YPC); 67.8 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
Dallas at New Orleans (-7) (Sunday Night)
Dal O: 5.6 yards/play (6.6 YPP/3.7 YPC); 60.9 plays/game; 1.2 TOs/game
NO D: 5.5 yards/play (5.8 YPP/4.9 YPC); 60.9 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
NO O: 6.0 yards/play (7.4 YPP/3.3 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 1.1 TOs/game
Dal D: 6.0 yards/play (6.7 YPP/4.6 YPC); 70 plays/game; 2.3 TOs/game
Miami (-2.5) at Tampa Bay (Monday Night)
Mia O: 5.0 yards/play (5.4 YPP/4.3 YPC); 63.1 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
TB D: 5.5 yards/play (6.6 YPP/4.0 YPC); 63.3 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
TB O: 4.6 yards/play (4.9 YPP/4.1 YPC); 66.4 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Mia D: 5.2 yards/play (6.0 YPP/4.0 YPC); 71.5 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
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