Week 11 Match-Ups by the Numbers
Adding a few numbers here and there. Still trying to figure out how to apply new data into capping. If you have any ideas, please let me know. I have @hustledouble helping me out right now with the application and potential testing of data such as Yards per Point (the lower the number on offense, the better for the offense, vice versa for defense). I will re-add turnovers/game next week. For some reason, when transferring numbers from one spreadsheet to the other, some stats got jumbled up, and I didn't feel like re-adding them.
YPP = Yards per Pass; YPR = Yards Per Run
Indy -3 at Tenn
Indy O: 5.5 yards/play (6.3 YPP/4.4 YPR); 63.1 plays/game; 14.11 yards/pt
Ten D: 5.2 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.1 YPR); 63.1 plays/game; 14.98 yards/pt
Ten O: 5.1 yards/play (6.0 YPP/4.0 YPR); 63.2 plays/game; 14.53 yards/pt
Indy D: 5.8 yards/play (7.0 YPP/4.3 YPR); 63.4 plays/game; 17.15 yards/pt
Atl -2.5 at TB
Atl O: 5.6 yards/play (6.4 YPP/3.5 YPR); 61.1 plays/game; 16.42 yards/pt
TB D: 5.3 yards/play (6.4 YPP/3.8 YPR); 62.7 plays/game; 14.33 yards/pt
TB O: 4.6 yards/play (5.0 YPP/4.0 YPR); 65.7 plays/game; 18.47 yards/pt
Atl D: 6.0 yards/play (7.1 YPP/4.6 YPR); 63.1 plays/game; 13.58 yards/pt
NYJ at Buf (-1.5)
NYJ O: 5.0 yards/play (5.8 YPP/4.2 YPR); 65.7 plays/game; 17.64 yards/pt
Buf D: 5.1 yards/play (6.0 YPP/4.0 YPR); 69.6 plays/game; 13.74 yards/pt
Buf O: 4.7 yards/play (5.0 YPP/4.3 YPR); 70.7 plays/game; 16.72 yards/pt
NYJ D: 5.0 yards/play (6.0 YPP/3.1 YPR); 65.1 plays/game; 12.67 yards/pt
Detroit -2 at Pitt
Det O: 6.0 yards/play (7.2 YPP/4.0 YPR); 68.6 plays/game; 15.51 yards/pt
Pit D: 5.2 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.2 YPR); 62.8 plays/game; 13.56 yards/pt
Pit O: 5.3 yards/play (6.1 YPP/3.6 YPR); 68.6 plays/game; 16.95 yards/pt
Det D: 6.0 yards/play (6.8 YPP/4.5 YPR); 63.2 plays/game; 15.68 yards/pt
Wash at Phil -3.5
Wash O: 5.8 yards/play (6.4 YPP/5.1 YPR); 70.3 plays/game; 16.06 yards/pt
Phil D: 5.6 yards/play (6.5 YPP/4.0 YPR); 74.7 plays/game; 17.09 yards/pt
Phil O: 6.3 yards/play (7.3 YPP/5.1 YPR); 65.7 plays/game; 16.40 yards/pt
Wash D: 6.1 yards/play (7.3 YPP/4.3 YPR); 63.9 plays/game; 12.18 yards/pt
Balt at Chi (-3)
Balt O: 4.5 yards/play (5.6 YPP/2.8 YPR); 68 plays/game; 14.72 yards/pt
Chi D: 6.1 yards/play (7.5 YPP/4.5 YPR); 61.9 plays/game; 13.82 yards/pt
Chi O: 5.9 yards/play (6.7 YPP/4.5 YPR); 63.3 plays/game; 12.95 yards/pt
Balt D: 5.1 yards/play (6.1 YPP/3.7 YPR); 66.9 plays/game; 16.30 yards/pt
Cle at Cin (-5.5)
Cle O: 4.8 yards/play (5.3 YPP/3.7 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 16.58 yards/pt
Cin D: 4.7 yards/play (5.2 YPP/3.9 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 16.74 yards/pt
Cin O: 5.4 yards/play (6.6 YPP/3.8 YPC); 69.7 plays/game; 16.18 yards/pt
Cle D: 4.5 yards/play (5.1 YPP/3.6 YPC); 70.0 plays/game; 14.42 yards/pt
Oak at Hou (-7.5)
Oak O: 5.2 yards/play (5.4 YPP/4.9 YPR); 63.6 plays/game; 17.93 yards/pt
Hou D: 4.9 yards/play (5.7 YPP/4.1 YPR); 57.1 plays/game; 10.16 yards/pt
Hou O: 5.3 yards/play (5.9 YPP/4.4 YPR); 70.6 plays/game; 19.92 yards/pt
Oak D: 5.4 yards/play (6.7 YPP/3.7 YPR); 63.4 plays/game; 13.94 yards/pt
Ari -6.5 at Jax
Ari O: 5.1 yards/play (5.9 YPP/4.0 YPR); 61.6 plays/game; 15.23 plays/pt
Jax D: 5.9 yards/play (7.1 YPP/4.6 YPR) 66.1 plays/game; 12.03 plays/pt
Jax O: 4.4 yards/play (5.4 YPP/2.8 YPR); 63 plays/game; 21.79 plays/pt
Ari D: 4.8 yards/play (5.6 YPP/3.5 YPR); 68.2 plays/game; 15.02 plays/pt
SD -1.5 at Mia
SD O: 6.0 yards/play (7.6 YPP/3.8 YPR); 65.8 plays/game; 16.79 yards/pt
Mia D: 5.1 yards/play (6.0 YPP/3.9 YPR); 70.2 plays/game; 15.38 yards/pt
Mia O: 4.9 yards/play (5.3 YPP/4.0 YPR); 62.6 plays/game; 14.17 yards/pt
SD D: 6.4 yards/play (7.5 YPP/4.8 YPR); 61.2 plays/game; 17.56 yards/pt
Min at Sea -12.5
Min O: 5.3 yards/play (5.7 YPP/4.7 YPR); 59.8 plays/game; 12.91 yards/pt
Sea D: 4.6 yards/play (4.9 YPP/4.2 YPR); 62.7 plays/game; 18.18 yards/pt
Sea O: 5.8 yards/play (7.1 YPP/4.6 YPR); 62.3 plays/game; 13.66 yards/pt
Min D: 5.6 yards/play (6.6 YPP/4.0 YPR); 71.9 plays/game; 12.88 yards/pt
GB at NYG -6
GB O: 6.3 yards/play (7.4 YPP/4.8 YPR); 67 plays/game; 15.43 yards/pt
NYG D: 4.8 yards/play (5.6 YPP/3.7 YPR); 68.1 plays/game; 12.21 yards/pt
NYG O: 5.0 yards/play (6.1 YPP/3.2 YPR); 63.2 plays/game; 17.41 yards/pt
GB D: 5.7 yards/play (6.7 YPP/4.2 YPR); 62 plays/game; 14.97 yards/pt
SF at NO -3
SF O: 5.4 yards/play (6.5 YPP/4.5 YPR); 59.6 plays/game; 12.74 yards/pt
NO D: 5.4 yards/play (5.7 YPP/5.0 YPR); 58.9 plays/game; 17.53 yards/pt
NO O: 6.2 yards/play (7.6 YPP/3.8 YPR); 68.1 plays/game; 14.35 yards/pt
SF D: 4.9 yards/play (5.5 YPP/3.9 YPR); 65.2 plays/game; 18.39 yards/pt
KC at Den -8
KC O: 4.8 yards/play (5.2 YPP/4.2 YPR); 66.2 plays/game; 13.28 yards/pt
Den D: 5.5 yards/play (6.8 YPP/3.4 YPR); 67.8 plays/game; 14.18 yards/pt
Den O: 6.4 yards/play (8.3 YPP/3.7 YPR); 71.2 plays/game; 11.13 yards/pt
KC D: 5.1 yards/play (5.2 YPP/5.0 YPR); 63.9 plays/game; 26.50 yards/pt
NE at Car -2.5
NE O: 5.1 yards/play (5.7 YPP/4.4 YPR); 70.3 plays/game; 13.89 yards/pt
Car D: 4.8 yards/play (5.4 YPP/3.8 YPR); 58.8 plays/game; 22.17 yards/pt
Car O: 5.0 yards/play (5.9 YPP/4.0 YPR); 65.3 plays/game; 13.61 yards/pt
NE D: 5.1 yards/play (5.6 YPP/4.3 YPR); 71.4 plays/game; 18.57 yards/pt
11/13/2013
11/07/2013
The Rise of the Rookie Receiver?
Back in my day...
I have this old-man phrase in my head as I was thinking of rookie running backs and how they've gone (or at least seemed to have gone) from highly-wanted commodities to mid-round fodder in NFL drafts in my lifetime. Given the rule changes that favor explosive passing games, it's not much of a shock to see this happening. (an aside: what's more shocking is the lack of shock for Indianapolis trading a FIRST-ROUND pick for a running back this season)
This year, there's a couple of rookies making noise - Eddie Lacy and Zac Stacy are the first who come to mind. But only those two backs and possibly Le'Veon Bell even have a chance at cracking the 800 yard mark.
A year to year breakdown of rookie tail backs who've ran for 800+ yards (at least 50 yards/team game) shows this trend of their declining value (with highest rookie in parenthesis):
1993: 3 backs (Jerome Bettis 1429)
1994: 3 backs (Marshall Faulk 1282)
1995: 4 backs (Curtis Martin 1487)
1996: 2 backs (Eddie George 1368)
1997: 4 backs (Corey Dillon 1129)
1998: 2 backs (Fred Taylor 1223)
1999: 3 backs (Edgerrin James 1553)
2000: 2 backs (Mike Anderson 1487)
2001: 3 backs (LaDainian Tomlinson 1236)
2002: 2 backs (Clinton Portis 1508)
(Total of 28 players, highs ranging from 1129 to 1508)
2003: 1 back (Domanick Williams 1031)
2004: 3 backs (Willis McGahee 1128)
2005: 2 backs (Cadillac Williams 1178)
2006: 2 backs (Joseph Addai 1081)
2007: 3 backs (Adrian Peterson 1341)
2008: 4 backs (Matt Forte 1238)
2009: 1 back (Knowshon Moreno 947)
2010: 1 back (LeGarrette Blount 1007)
2011: 2 backs (Ben Tate 942)
2012: 5 backs* (Alfred Morris 1613)
(Total of 24 players, highs ranging from 942 to 1613)
*includes a non-running back (RG3)
Now, the rookie receivers who have broken the 800+ yard barrier in that time:
1993: 1 (Terry Kirby 874)* (highest WR - James Jett 771)
1994: 2 (Darnay Scott 866)
1995: 3 (Joey Galloway 1039)
1996: 4 (Terry Glenn 1132)
1997: 0 (highest - Rae Carruth 545)
1998: 1 (Randy Moss 1313)
1999: 1 (Kevin Johnson 986)
2000: 0 (highest - Darrell Jackson 713)
2001: 1 (Chris Chambers 883)
2002: 1 (Jeremy Shockey 894)** (highest WR - Antonio Bryant 733)
(Total of 14 players, highs ranging from 545 to 1313)
*running back
**tight end
2003: 2 (Anquan Boldin 1377)
2004: 3 (Michael Clayton 1193)
2005: 0 (highest - Reggie Brown 571)
2006: 2 (Marques Colston 1038)
2007: 1 (Dwayne Bowe 995)
2008: 2 (Eddie Royal 998)
2009: 0 (highest - Hakeem Nicks/Percy Harvin - 790)
2010: 2 (Mike Williams 964)
2011: 3 (AJ Green 1057)
2012: 3 (Justin Blackmon 865)
(Total of 18 players, highs ranging from 571 to 1377)
The numbers aren't completely there yet, but the last three years (with at least 2 receivers gaining 800+ yards) show a potential trend in the making. So far in 2013, there are six players (including tight end Jordan Reed) averaging over 45 receiving yards a game, which would blow any of these previous seasons out of the water.
While there has been a rookie running back with at least 800 yards every season in the past 20 years, there doesn't seem to be as many consistent workhorse running backs coming out of college. One major reason for that could be the NFL mirroring the college game (more two-back systems and much more focus on the passing game than ever before). Last year showed a sudden uptick in big efforts from rookie backs, but will that continue? Ultimately, I think 2012 will be proven to be the exception.
I believe this trend will continue (rising numbers in rookie wideouts and lowered numbers in rookie backs) for the foreseeable future, as the rule changes in the recent past indicate a heavy emphasis on protecting quarterbacks and wide receivers from huge hits.
I have this old-man phrase in my head as I was thinking of rookie running backs and how they've gone (or at least seemed to have gone) from highly-wanted commodities to mid-round fodder in NFL drafts in my lifetime. Given the rule changes that favor explosive passing games, it's not much of a shock to see this happening. (an aside: what's more shocking is the lack of shock for Indianapolis trading a FIRST-ROUND pick for a running back this season)
This year, there's a couple of rookies making noise - Eddie Lacy and Zac Stacy are the first who come to mind. But only those two backs and possibly Le'Veon Bell even have a chance at cracking the 800 yard mark.
A year to year breakdown of rookie tail backs who've ran for 800+ yards (at least 50 yards/team game) shows this trend of their declining value (with highest rookie in parenthesis):
1993: 3 backs (Jerome Bettis 1429)
 |
| Edgerrin James |
1995: 4 backs (Curtis Martin 1487)
1996: 2 backs (Eddie George 1368)
1997: 4 backs (Corey Dillon 1129)
1998: 2 backs (Fred Taylor 1223)
1999: 3 backs (Edgerrin James 1553)
2000: 2 backs (Mike Anderson 1487)
2001: 3 backs (LaDainian Tomlinson 1236)
2002: 2 backs (Clinton Portis 1508)
(Total of 28 players, highs ranging from 1129 to 1508)
2003: 1 back (Domanick Williams 1031)
2004: 3 backs (Willis McGahee 1128)
2005: 2 backs (Cadillac Williams 1178)
 |
| Alfred Morris |
2007: 3 backs (Adrian Peterson 1341)
2008: 4 backs (Matt Forte 1238)
2009: 1 back (Knowshon Moreno 947)
2010: 1 back (LeGarrette Blount 1007)
2011: 2 backs (Ben Tate 942)
2012: 5 backs* (Alfred Morris 1613)
(Total of 24 players, highs ranging from 942 to 1613)
*includes a non-running back (RG3)
Now, the rookie receivers who have broken the 800+ yard barrier in that time:
 |
| Randall Moss |
1993: 1 (Terry Kirby 874)* (highest WR - James Jett 771)
1994: 2 (Darnay Scott 866)
1995: 3 (Joey Galloway 1039)
1996: 4 (Terry Glenn 1132)
1997: 0 (highest - Rae Carruth 545)
1998: 1 (Randy Moss 1313)
1999: 1 (Kevin Johnson 986)
2000: 0 (highest - Darrell Jackson 713)
2001: 1 (Chris Chambers 883)
2002: 1 (Jeremy Shockey 894)** (highest WR - Antonio Bryant 733)
(Total of 14 players, highs ranging from 545 to 1313)
*running back
**tight end
2003: 2 (Anquan Boldin 1377)
 |
| Anquan Boldin |
2005: 0 (highest - Reggie Brown 571)
2006: 2 (Marques Colston 1038)
2007: 1 (Dwayne Bowe 995)
2008: 2 (Eddie Royal 998)
2009: 0 (highest - Hakeem Nicks/Percy Harvin - 790)
2010: 2 (Mike Williams 964)
2011: 3 (AJ Green 1057)
2012: 3 (Justin Blackmon 865)
(Total of 18 players, highs ranging from 571 to 1377)
The numbers aren't completely there yet, but the last three years (with at least 2 receivers gaining 800+ yards) show a potential trend in the making. So far in 2013, there are six players (including tight end Jordan Reed) averaging over 45 receiving yards a game, which would blow any of these previous seasons out of the water.
While there has been a rookie running back with at least 800 yards every season in the past 20 years, there doesn't seem to be as many consistent workhorse running backs coming out of college. One major reason for that could be the NFL mirroring the college game (more two-back systems and much more focus on the passing game than ever before). Last year showed a sudden uptick in big efforts from rookie backs, but will that continue? Ultimately, I think 2012 will be proven to be the exception.
I believe this trend will continue (rising numbers in rookie wideouts and lowered numbers in rookie backs) for the foreseeable future, as the rule changes in the recent past indicate a heavy emphasis on protecting quarterbacks and wide receivers from huge hits.
11/06/2013
Week 10 Picks Go Here
Week 10 Picks (So Far)
Min ML (+105) - (1.2 to win 1.26) - W (+1.26)
Green Bay +1.5 - (1.07 to win 1.0) & ML (+109) - (0.5 to win 0.545) - L (-1.57)
Baltimore ML (+105) - (2.0 to win 2.1) - W (+2.10)
Carolina +6.5 - (1.65 to win 1.5) - W (+1.50)
San Diego +7 - (2.2 to win 2.0) - L (-2.20)
Dallas +6.5 - (2.1 to win 2.0) - L (-2.10)
Mia/TB Under 40.5 (0.848/0.8 & Under 37.5 (0.5/0.61) & Under 34.5 (0.4/0.696) & Under 30.5 (0.3/0.927) - L (-2.048)
Week Results - 3-4, -3.058
Min ML (+105) - (1.2 to win 1.26) - W (+1.26)
Green Bay +1.5 - (1.07 to win 1.0) & ML (+109) - (0.5 to win 0.545) - L (-1.57)
Baltimore ML (+105) - (2.0 to win 2.1) - W (+2.10)
Carolina +6.5 - (1.65 to win 1.5) - W (+1.50)
San Diego +7 - (2.2 to win 2.0) - L (-2.20)
Dallas +6.5 - (2.1 to win 2.0) - L (-2.10)
Mia/TB Under 40.5 (0.848/0.8 & Under 37.5 (0.5/0.61) & Under 34.5 (0.4/0.696) & Under 30.5 (0.3/0.927) - L (-2.048)
Week Results - 3-4, -3.058
*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing.
YTD: (49-38, +16.971)
Week 10 Match-Ups by the Numbers
As many of you who read this know, I like to look at yards/play stats & number of plays to see if there's any advantages on the sides or totals of games. All numbers gathered from pro-football-reference.com:
YPP = yards/pass; YPC = yards/carry
Washington (-2.5) at Minnesota (Thurs Night)
Wash O: 5.9 yards/play (6.5 YPP/5.0 YPC); 69.5 plays/game; 2 TOs/game
Min D: 5.5 yards/play (6.7 YPP/3.8 YPC); 71.3 plays/game; 1.8 TOs/game
Min O: 5.2 yards/play (5.5 YPP/4.8 YPC); 60.8 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
Wash D: 6.1 yards/play (7.3 YPP/4.4 YPC); 65.4 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Jacksonville at Tennessee (-11.5)
Jax O: 4.5 yards/play (worst) (5.3 YPP/3.0 YPC); 63.9 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Ten D: 5.3 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.4 YPC); 64 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Ten O: 5.1 yards/play (5.9 YPP/4.1 YPC); 62.4 plays/game; 1.1 TOs/game
Jax D: 6.0 yards/play (7.2 YPP/4.8 YPC); 65.6 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
Philadelphia at Green Bay (-1.5)
Phil O: 6.2 yards/play (7.2 YPP/5 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
GB D: 5.5 yards/play (6.5 YPP/4 YPC); 62.5 plays/game; 0.9 TOs/game
GB O: 6.4 yards/play (T-best) (7.5 YPP/5 YPC); 66 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Phil D: 5.6 yards/play (6.5 YPP/4.1 YPC); 74.7 plays/game; 1.7 TOs/game
Buffalo at Pittsburgh (-3)
Buf O: 4.8 yards/play (5.3 YPP/4.3 YPC); 71.4 plays/game; 1.8 TOs/game
Pit D: 5.4 yards/play (6.6 YPP/4.2 YPC); 62.6 plays/game; 0.8 TOs/game
Pit O: 5.4 yards/play (6.3 YPP/3.5 YPC); 63.5 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
Buf D: 5.2 yards/play (6.1 YPP/3.9 YPC); 69.9 plays/game; 1.7 TOs/game
Oakland at NY Giants (-7.5)
Oak O: 5.3 yards/play (5.7 YPP/5.0 YPC); 64.6 plays/game; 1.8 TOs/game
NYG D: 4.9 yards/play (5.8 YPP/3.6 YPC); 69.8 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
NYG O: 5.2 yards/play (6.3 YPP/3.2 YPC); 63.3 plays/game; 3.1 TOs/game
Oak D: 5.6 yards/play (6.8 YPP/3.8 YPC); 63.5 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
St. Louis at Indianapolis (-9.5)
StL O: 4.8 yards/play (5.5 YPP/3.8 YPC); 64.3 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Ind D: 5.7 yards/play (6.7 YPP/4.4 YPC); 64.5 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Ind O: 5.5 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.6 YPC); 62.4 plays/game; 0.8 TOs/game
StL D: 5.7 yards/play (6.9 YPP/4.4 YPC); 60.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Seattle (-6.5) at Atlanta
Sea O: 5.6 yards/play (6.8 YPP/4.6 YPC); 61.6 plays/game; 1.7 TOs/game
Atl D: 5.8 yards/play (6.8 YPP/4.5 YPC); 62.4 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
Atl O: 5.7 yards/play (6.7 YPP/3.5 YPC); 62 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Sea D: 4.6 yards/play (2nd) (5.0 YPP/4.2 YPC); 63.7 plays/game; 2.3 TOs/game
Cincinnati (-1.5) at Baltimore
Cin O: 5.6 yards/play (7.0 YPP/3.7 YPC); 67.8 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Bal D: 5.3 yards/play (6.5 YPP/3.7 YPC); 64.4 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Bal O: 4.8 yards/play (6.0 YPP/2.8 YPC - worst); 67.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Cin D: 4.9 yards/play (5.5 YPP/4.0 YPC); 66.1 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Carolina at San Francisco (-6.5)
Car O: 5.1 yards/play (6.2 YPP/4.0 YPC); 65.3 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
SF D: 5.0 yards/play (5.7 YPP/3.9 YPC); 65.1 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
SF O: 5.7 yards/play (7.1 YPP/4.5 YPC); 60.5 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game
Car D: 5.0 yards/play (5.8 YPP/3.7 YPC); 59.6 plays/game; 2.4 TOs/game
Houston at Arizona (-2.5)
Hou O: 5.5 yards/play (6.3 YPP/4.5 YPC); 71 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
Ari D: 5.0 yards/play (5.9 YPP/3.5 YPC); 68.4 plays/game; 2.4 TOs/game
Ari O: 5.1 yards/play (5.8 YPP/4.0 YPC); 61.5 plays/game; 2.3 TOs/game
Hou D: 4.8 yards/play (5.5 YPP/4.2 YPC); 56.5 plays/game; 0.6 TOs/game
Denver (-7) at San Diego
Den O: 6.4 yards/play (T-best) (8.3 YPP/3.7 YPC); 72.6 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
SD D: 6.4 yards/play (worst) (7.4 YPP/4.9 YPC); 61.4 plays/game; 0.6 TOs/game
SD O: 6.2 yards/play (7.8 YPP/3.8 YPC); 65.5 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game
Den D: 5.6 yards/play (6.8 YPP/3.4 YPC); 67.8 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
Dallas at New Orleans (-7) (Sunday Night)
Dal O: 5.6 yards/play (6.6 YPP/3.7 YPC); 60.9 plays/game; 1.2 TOs/game
NO D: 5.5 yards/play (5.8 YPP/4.9 YPC); 60.9 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
NO O: 6.0 yards/play (7.4 YPP/3.3 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 1.1 TOs/game
Dal D: 6.0 yards/play (6.7 YPP/4.6 YPC); 70 plays/game; 2.3 TOs/game
Miami (-2.5) at Tampa Bay (Monday Night)
Mia O: 5.0 yards/play (5.4 YPP/4.3 YPC); 63.1 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
TB D: 5.5 yards/play (6.6 YPP/4.0 YPC); 63.3 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
TB O: 4.6 yards/play (4.9 YPP/4.1 YPC); 66.4 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Mia D: 5.2 yards/play (6.0 YPP/4.0 YPC); 71.5 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
YPP = yards/pass; YPC = yards/carry
Washington (-2.5) at Minnesota (Thurs Night)
Wash O: 5.9 yards/play (6.5 YPP/5.0 YPC); 69.5 plays/game; 2 TOs/game
Min D: 5.5 yards/play (6.7 YPP/3.8 YPC); 71.3 plays/game; 1.8 TOs/game
Min O: 5.2 yards/play (5.5 YPP/4.8 YPC); 60.8 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
Wash D: 6.1 yards/play (7.3 YPP/4.4 YPC); 65.4 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Jacksonville at Tennessee (-11.5)
Jax O: 4.5 yards/play (worst) (5.3 YPP/3.0 YPC); 63.9 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Ten D: 5.3 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.4 YPC); 64 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Ten O: 5.1 yards/play (5.9 YPP/4.1 YPC); 62.4 plays/game; 1.1 TOs/game
Jax D: 6.0 yards/play (7.2 YPP/4.8 YPC); 65.6 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
Philadelphia at Green Bay (-1.5)
Phil O: 6.2 yards/play (7.2 YPP/5 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
GB D: 5.5 yards/play (6.5 YPP/4 YPC); 62.5 plays/game; 0.9 TOs/game
GB O: 6.4 yards/play (T-best) (7.5 YPP/5 YPC); 66 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Phil D: 5.6 yards/play (6.5 YPP/4.1 YPC); 74.7 plays/game; 1.7 TOs/game
Buffalo at Pittsburgh (-3)
Buf O: 4.8 yards/play (5.3 YPP/4.3 YPC); 71.4 plays/game; 1.8 TOs/game
Pit D: 5.4 yards/play (6.6 YPP/4.2 YPC); 62.6 plays/game; 0.8 TOs/game
Pit O: 5.4 yards/play (6.3 YPP/3.5 YPC); 63.5 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
Buf D: 5.2 yards/play (6.1 YPP/3.9 YPC); 69.9 plays/game; 1.7 TOs/game
Oakland at NY Giants (-7.5)
Oak O: 5.3 yards/play (5.7 YPP/5.0 YPC); 64.6 plays/game; 1.8 TOs/game
NYG D: 4.9 yards/play (5.8 YPP/3.6 YPC); 69.8 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
NYG O: 5.2 yards/play (6.3 YPP/3.2 YPC); 63.3 plays/game; 3.1 TOs/game
Oak D: 5.6 yards/play (6.8 YPP/3.8 YPC); 63.5 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
St. Louis at Indianapolis (-9.5)
StL O: 4.8 yards/play (5.5 YPP/3.8 YPC); 64.3 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Ind D: 5.7 yards/play (6.7 YPP/4.4 YPC); 64.5 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Ind O: 5.5 yards/play (6.1 YPP/4.6 YPC); 62.4 plays/game; 0.8 TOs/game
StL D: 5.7 yards/play (6.9 YPP/4.4 YPC); 60.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Seattle (-6.5) at Atlanta
Sea O: 5.6 yards/play (6.8 YPP/4.6 YPC); 61.6 plays/game; 1.7 TOs/game
Atl D: 5.8 yards/play (6.8 YPP/4.5 YPC); 62.4 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
Atl O: 5.7 yards/play (6.7 YPP/3.5 YPC); 62 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Sea D: 4.6 yards/play (2nd) (5.0 YPP/4.2 YPC); 63.7 plays/game; 2.3 TOs/game
Cincinnati (-1.5) at Baltimore
Cin O: 5.6 yards/play (7.0 YPP/3.7 YPC); 67.8 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Bal D: 5.3 yards/play (6.5 YPP/3.7 YPC); 64.4 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Bal O: 4.8 yards/play (6.0 YPP/2.8 YPC - worst); 67.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Cin D: 4.9 yards/play (5.5 YPP/4.0 YPC); 66.1 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Carolina at San Francisco (-6.5)
Car O: 5.1 yards/play (6.2 YPP/4.0 YPC); 65.3 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
SF D: 5.0 yards/play (5.7 YPP/3.9 YPC); 65.1 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
SF O: 5.7 yards/play (7.1 YPP/4.5 YPC); 60.5 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game
Car D: 5.0 yards/play (5.8 YPP/3.7 YPC); 59.6 plays/game; 2.4 TOs/game
Houston at Arizona (-2.5)
Hou O: 5.5 yards/play (6.3 YPP/4.5 YPC); 71 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
Ari D: 5.0 yards/play (5.9 YPP/3.5 YPC); 68.4 plays/game; 2.4 TOs/game
Ari O: 5.1 yards/play (5.8 YPP/4.0 YPC); 61.5 plays/game; 2.3 TOs/game
Hou D: 4.8 yards/play (5.5 YPP/4.2 YPC); 56.5 plays/game; 0.6 TOs/game
Denver (-7) at San Diego
Den O: 6.4 yards/play (T-best) (8.3 YPP/3.7 YPC); 72.6 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
SD D: 6.4 yards/play (worst) (7.4 YPP/4.9 YPC); 61.4 plays/game; 0.6 TOs/game
SD O: 6.2 yards/play (7.8 YPP/3.8 YPC); 65.5 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game
Den D: 5.6 yards/play (6.8 YPP/3.4 YPC); 67.8 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
Dallas at New Orleans (-7) (Sunday Night)
Dal O: 5.6 yards/play (6.6 YPP/3.7 YPC); 60.9 plays/game; 1.2 TOs/game
NO D: 5.5 yards/play (5.8 YPP/4.9 YPC); 60.9 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
NO O: 6.0 yards/play (7.4 YPP/3.3 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 1.1 TOs/game
Dal D: 6.0 yards/play (6.7 YPP/4.6 YPC); 70 plays/game; 2.3 TOs/game
Miami (-2.5) at Tampa Bay (Monday Night)
Mia O: 5.0 yards/play (5.4 YPP/4.3 YPC); 63.1 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
TB D: 5.5 yards/play (6.6 YPP/4.0 YPC); 63.3 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
TB O: 4.6 yards/play (4.9 YPP/4.1 YPC); 66.4 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Mia D: 5.2 yards/play (6.0 YPP/4.0 YPC); 71.5 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
10/31/2013
Week 9 Picks Go Here
Week 9 Picks (So far)
Mia +3 (-106) - (1.59/1.50) & ML (+140) (0.5/0.7) - W (+2.20)
Ten -3 (+105) - (1.50/1.575) - W (+1.575)
Wash ML (+100) - (1.25/1.25) - W (+1.25)
NYJ +6.5 (-109) - (2.18/2.00) - W (+2.00)
Min +9 (-107) - (1.605/1.5) - W (+1.50)
Pitt +6 (-108) - (1.62/1.5) - L (-1.62)
Hou ML (-103) - (0.515/0.5), Hou -3 (+140) - (0.4/0.56), Hou -6.5 (+230) - (0.4/0.92) - L (-1.315 total)
Chi +10 (-109) - (2.18/2.00) - W (+2.00)
Teaser Chi +17.5/Under 56.5 - (0.8/0.8) - W (+0.8)
(YTD: 46-34, +20.029) (54-40 based on criteria mentioned above ^^^
*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing.
Week 8: (5-4, +3.47)
Week 9: (7-2, +8.39)
Week 9: (7-2, +8.39)
YTD: (46-34, +20.029)
Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)
10/28/2013
Week 9 Matchups by the Numbers
Adding Yards/Pass (YPA), Yards/Carry (YPC) and Turnovers/Game (TOs/game) to Weekly Categories
Cincy (-2.5) at Miami (Thursday Night)
Cin O: 5.7 yards/play (7.3 YPA/3.6 YPC); 64.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Mia D: 5.2 yards/play (6.2 YPA/3.8 YPC); 68.4 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Mia O: 4.9 yards/play (5.3 YPA/4.1 YPC); 63.4 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
Cin D: 4.8 yards/play (5.4 YPA/3.8 YPC); 66.8 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game
Atlanta at Carolina (-7.5)
Atl O: 5.7 yards/play (6.6 YPA/3.4 YPC); 64 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Car D: 4.9 yards/play (5.6 YPA/3.7 YPC); 61.3 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
Car O: 5.1 yards/play (6.2 YPA/4.0 YPC); 64.4 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Atl D: 5.9 yards/play (6.9 YPA/4.6 YPC); 61.1 plays/game; 0.9 TOs/game
Minnesota at Dallas (-10)
Min O: 5.1 yards/play (5.4 YPA/4.6 YPC); 59.7 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
Dal D: 6.0 yards/play (6.9 YPA/4.4 YPC); 70.3 plays/game; 2.4 TOs/game
Dal O: 5.6 yards/play (6.7 YPA/3.7 YPC); 60.6 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Min D: 5.5 yards/play (6.8 YPA/3.8 YPC); 72.4 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
New Orleans (-5.5) at NY Jets
NO O: 5.9 yards/play (7.5 YPA/3.4 YPC); 66.7 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
NYJ D: 4.8 yards/play (5.9 YPA/3.1 YPC); 65.0 plays/game; 0.6 TOs/game
NYJ O: 5.0 yards/play (5.8 YPA/4.0 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
NO D: 5.4 yards/play (5.8 YPA/4.8 YPC); 61.3 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
Tennessee (NL) at St. Louis
Ten O: 5.0 yards/play (5.9 YPA/3.8 YPC); 62.6 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
StL D: 5.7 yards/play (7.0 YPA/4.1 YPC); 60.5 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game
StL O: 4.8 yards/play (5.5 YPA/3.6 YPC); 63.8 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Ten D: 5.3 yards/play (6.2 YPA/4.2 YPC); 63.3 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Kansas City (-3) at Buffalo
KC O: 4.9 yards/play (5.4 YPA/4.2 YPC); 67.8 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
Buf D: 5.3 yards/play (6.3 YPA/3.9 YPC); 71.9 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Buf O: 4.7 yards/play (5.2 YPA/4.0 YPC); 70.8 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
KC D: 5.0 yards/play (5.1 YPA/4.7 YPC); 62.3 plays/game; 2.5 TOs/game
San Diego (pick'em) at Washington
SD O: 6.1 yards/play (7.9 YPA/3.8 YPC); 65.9 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Wsh D: 6.0 yards/play (7.3 YPA/4.4 YPC); 65.7 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Wsh O: 5.7 yards/play (6.2 YPA/5.0 YPC); 69.1 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
SD D: 6.3 yards/play (7.2 YPA/4.8 YPC); 59.9 plays/game; 0.6 TOs/game
Tampa Bay at Seattle (-17)
TB O: 4.5 yards/play (4.9 YPA/3.8 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Sea D: 4.6 yards/play (4.9 YPA/4.0 YPC); 63.5 plays/game; 2.6 TOs/game
Sea O: 5.5 yards/play (6.6 YPA/4.4 YPC); 61.6 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game
TB D: 5.3 yards/play (6.4 YPA/3.7 YPC); 63.6 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Baltimore (-2.5) at Cleveland
Balt O: 4.9 yards/play (6.2 YPA/2.8 YPC); 67.7 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Cle D: 4.6 yards/play (5.2 YPA/3.7 YPC); 70.4 plays/game; 1.1 TOs/game
Cle O: 4.8 yards/play (5.2 YPA/3.9 YPC); 66.4 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Balt D: 5.4 yards/play (6.5 YPA/3.8 YPC); 63.4 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Pittsburgh at New England (-7)
Pit O: 5.2 yards/play (6.2 YPA/3.3 YPC); 62.1 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
NE D: 4.9 yards/play (5.4 YPA/4.2 YPC); 71.3 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
NE O: 4.7 yards/play (5.1 YPA/4.2 YPC); 70.2 plays/game; 1.1 TOs/game
Pit D: 4.9 yards/play (5.8 YPA/4.0 YPC); 61.4 plays/game; 0.7 TOs./game
Philadelphia (NL) at Oakland
Phil O: 5.9 yards/play (6.6 YPA/5.0 YPC); 67.8 plays/game; 1.8 TOs/game
Oak D: 5.1 yards/play (6.2 YPA/3.6 YPC); 64.4 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Oak O: 5.2 yards/play (5.6 YPA; 4.8 YPC); 60.7 plays/game; 1.7 TOs/game
Phil D: 5.5 yards/play (6.6 YPA; 3.7 YPC); 72.5 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Indianapolis (-2.5) at Houston (Sunday Night)
Ind O: 5.5 yards/play (6.2 YPA/4.5 YPC); 63 plays/game; 0.8 TOs/game
Hou D: 4.8 yards/play (5.4 YPA/4.1 YPC); 56.3 plays/game; 0.7 TOs/game
Hou O: 5.3 yards/play (5.9 YPA/4.5 YPC); 71.4 plays/game; 2.3 TOs/game
Ind D: 5.5 yards/play (6.2 YPA/4.5 YPC); 64.0 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Chicago at Green Bay (-10.5)
Chi O: 6.1 yards/play (7.0 YPA/4.7 YPC); 60.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
GB D: 5.5 yards/play (6.5 YPA/3.7 YPC); 60.7 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
GB O: 6.5 yards/play (7.8 YPA/4.8 YPC); 67.6 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Chi D: 6.2 yards/play (8.1 YPA/4.0 YPC); 63 plays/game; 2.6 TOs/game
Cincy (-2.5) at Miami (Thursday Night)
Cin O: 5.7 yards/play (7.3 YPA/3.6 YPC); 64.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Mia D: 5.2 yards/play (6.2 YPA/3.8 YPC); 68.4 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Mia O: 4.9 yards/play (5.3 YPA/4.1 YPC); 63.4 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
Cin D: 4.8 yards/play (5.4 YPA/3.8 YPC); 66.8 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game
Atlanta at Carolina (-7.5)
Atl O: 5.7 yards/play (6.6 YPA/3.4 YPC); 64 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Car D: 4.9 yards/play (5.6 YPA/3.7 YPC); 61.3 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
Car O: 5.1 yards/play (6.2 YPA/4.0 YPC); 64.4 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Atl D: 5.9 yards/play (6.9 YPA/4.6 YPC); 61.1 plays/game; 0.9 TOs/game
Minnesota at Dallas (-10)
Min O: 5.1 yards/play (5.4 YPA/4.6 YPC); 59.7 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
Dal D: 6.0 yards/play (6.9 YPA/4.4 YPC); 70.3 plays/game; 2.4 TOs/game
Dal O: 5.6 yards/play (6.7 YPA/3.7 YPC); 60.6 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Min D: 5.5 yards/play (6.8 YPA/3.8 YPC); 72.4 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
New Orleans (-5.5) at NY Jets
NO O: 5.9 yards/play (7.5 YPA/3.4 YPC); 66.7 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
NYJ D: 4.8 yards/play (5.9 YPA/3.1 YPC); 65.0 plays/game; 0.6 TOs/game
NYJ O: 5.0 yards/play (5.8 YPA/4.0 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
NO D: 5.4 yards/play (5.8 YPA/4.8 YPC); 61.3 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
Tennessee (NL) at St. Louis
Ten O: 5.0 yards/play (5.9 YPA/3.8 YPC); 62.6 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
StL D: 5.7 yards/play (7.0 YPA/4.1 YPC); 60.5 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game
StL O: 4.8 yards/play (5.5 YPA/3.6 YPC); 63.8 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Ten D: 5.3 yards/play (6.2 YPA/4.2 YPC); 63.3 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Kansas City (-3) at Buffalo
KC O: 4.9 yards/play (5.4 YPA/4.2 YPC); 67.8 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
Buf D: 5.3 yards/play (6.3 YPA/3.9 YPC); 71.9 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Buf O: 4.7 yards/play (5.2 YPA/4.0 YPC); 70.8 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
KC D: 5.0 yards/play (5.1 YPA/4.7 YPC); 62.3 plays/game; 2.5 TOs/game
San Diego (pick'em) at Washington
SD O: 6.1 yards/play (7.9 YPA/3.8 YPC); 65.9 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Wsh D: 6.0 yards/play (7.3 YPA/4.4 YPC); 65.7 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Wsh O: 5.7 yards/play (6.2 YPA/5.0 YPC); 69.1 plays/game; 2.1 TOs/game
SD D: 6.3 yards/play (7.2 YPA/4.8 YPC); 59.9 plays/game; 0.6 TOs/game
Tampa Bay at Seattle (-17)
TB O: 4.5 yards/play (4.9 YPA/3.8 YPC); 66.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Sea D: 4.6 yards/play (4.9 YPA/4.0 YPC); 63.5 plays/game; 2.6 TOs/game
Sea O: 5.5 yards/play (6.6 YPA/4.4 YPC); 61.6 plays/game; 1.5 TOs/game
TB D: 5.3 yards/play (6.4 YPA/3.7 YPC); 63.6 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Baltimore (-2.5) at Cleveland
Balt O: 4.9 yards/play (6.2 YPA/2.8 YPC); 67.7 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Cle D: 4.6 yards/play (5.2 YPA/3.7 YPC); 70.4 plays/game; 1.1 TOs/game
Cle O: 4.8 yards/play (5.2 YPA/3.9 YPC); 66.4 plays/game; 1.4 TOs/game
Balt D: 5.4 yards/play (6.5 YPA/3.8 YPC); 63.4 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Pittsburgh at New England (-7)
Pit O: 5.2 yards/play (6.2 YPA/3.3 YPC); 62.1 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
NE D: 4.9 yards/play (5.4 YPA/4.2 YPC); 71.3 plays/game; 2.0 TOs/game
NE O: 4.7 yards/play (5.1 YPA/4.2 YPC); 70.2 plays/game; 1.1 TOs/game
Pit D: 4.9 yards/play (5.8 YPA/4.0 YPC); 61.4 plays/game; 0.7 TOs./game
Philadelphia (NL) at Oakland
Phil O: 5.9 yards/play (6.6 YPA/5.0 YPC); 67.8 plays/game; 1.8 TOs/game
Oak D: 5.1 yards/play (6.2 YPA/3.6 YPC); 64.4 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Oak O: 5.2 yards/play (5.6 YPA; 4.8 YPC); 60.7 plays/game; 1.7 TOs/game
Phil D: 5.5 yards/play (6.6 YPA; 3.7 YPC); 72.5 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
Indianapolis (-2.5) at Houston (Sunday Night)
Ind O: 5.5 yards/play (6.2 YPA/4.5 YPC); 63 plays/game; 0.8 TOs/game
Hou D: 4.8 yards/play (5.4 YPA/4.1 YPC); 56.3 plays/game; 0.7 TOs/game
Hou O: 5.3 yards/play (5.9 YPA/4.5 YPC); 71.4 plays/game; 2.3 TOs/game
Ind D: 5.5 yards/play (6.2 YPA/4.5 YPC); 64.0 plays/game; 1.9 TOs/game
Chicago at Green Bay (-10.5)
Chi O: 6.1 yards/play (7.0 YPA/4.7 YPC); 60.6 plays/game; 1.6 TOs/game
GB D: 5.5 yards/play (6.5 YPA/3.7 YPC); 60.7 plays/game; 1.0 TOs/game
GB O: 6.5 yards/play (7.8 YPA/4.8 YPC); 67.6 plays/game; 1.3 TOs/game
Chi D: 6.2 yards/play (8.1 YPA/4.0 YPC); 63 plays/game; 2.6 TOs/game
10/25/2013
Best And Worst Bets of NFL Thru 7 1/13 weeks
In the world of wagering, the best investors are encouraged not to celebrate or dwell on the bet that was made before, but rather learn from it and move on to the next one.
Without further ado, here are my favorite (and not-so-favorite) wagers made through the first 108 games of the NFL season:
While that's all fine and dandy, I cannot say that all bets are created equal, even the ones that pay out the same. Don't follow? Well, sometimes, there's certain wagers you make that you have a little more conviction behind, or playing on a strong hunch that very few others have.
On the other hand, there are also those wagers you make where you regret it after the first drive, when the team who you took 7 points for allows several key third down conversions, including on a touchdown pass where the quarterback is in the grasp of the defender but still musters enough strength to get it to his wide open tight end for an easy score (yes, I'm talking about you Tampa Bay).
Without further ado, here are my favorite (and not-so-favorite) wagers made through the first 108 games of the NFL season:
Best Reads (like my favorite book, 1984)
5. Denver -7 vs. Baltimore (Week 1): Game 1 of the season featured a rematch of a thrilling AFC Divisional Round match-up between the Broncos and the Ravens. The Ravens were featuring a different attack (absent Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta) and several familiar faces missing from their defense (Ray Lewis and Ed Reed). Meanwhile, Peyton Manning was about to show the world just how dominating he could be, even at his advanced age. After a sluggish first half in which he "only" threw two touchdown passes, Peyton more than doubled that in the second half on his way to a seven-touchdown performance. In regards to my wager, it wasn't large, but it felt good to start the year off on a solid note with a solid read on the game pre-snap.
4. Cleveland at Baltimore, Under 44 (Week 2): Note that this will likely not be the last AFC North contest I analyze - I have some sort of hard-on for them this season, as if I have a few futures on the teams in the division or something. With this particular match-up, I was intrigued at the high posted total, inflated likely to the throttling the Ravens' secondary took in Week 1. My thought was that the Ravens would be playing with a chip on their shoulder and focus a little more on the defensive end in their first divisional game, with the Browns' offense usually a good recipe for a struggling defense. The score at the half (6-0 Browns) left plenty of margin for error, which luckily was not needed as the Ravens notched the only two scores of the second half (both touchdowns) to help the under come in by a full 24 points.
3. San Francisco -3 at St. Louis (Week 4): Following a couple of complete duds against Seattle and Indianapolis, there was some reason to doubt San Francisco's prospects for success in the 2013 season. The first quarter of this game didn't help squash those doubts. However, Niners got rolling in the second quarter and asserted their will with a formula well-established in the Harbaugh era: a punishing run game and strong defense. After falling behind 3-0 after one, the Niners scored 28 unanswered points and ultimately routed the Rams 35-11. Funny thing about this game: before the season, I looked at this game as a pitfall on the schedule (divisional game on a short week), but ironically felt better about the Niners' chances of winning this game after the second straight blowout loss (home loss to the Colts). Also, another item I took from this game: I completely over-rated the Rams' potential success this year.
2. Jacksonville (Team Total Over 13) at Denver (Week 6): My only regret with this game was that I didn't throw more on it. When I saw that Jacksonville was a 26-27 point underdog to Denver, my interest in the game turned to the posted over/under. The site I use doesn't post totals immediately, so when I figured out that the line was telling me that they were projecting a 40-13 score, I knew right away what angle of the game I wanted to tackle: the Jacksonville team total. Just as Hollywood Henderson proclaimed when saying Terry Bradshaw couldn't spell CAT if you spotted him the C and the A, the Denver defense couldn't stop a team from scoring 13 points if you spotted them the D and the fence.
At the half, Jacksonville scored 12 points (its only touchdown on a pick-6 thrown by Manning). A 3rd-quarter touchdown made this a no-sweat bet. Even though it wasn't the perfect read (I wasn't banking on their defense being responsible for a score), the lack of sweat on this wager made it one of my prouder ones.
1. Cincinnati at Cleveland (+4) (Week 4): Call this the case of Brian v. Twitter Followers of His (worst court-case title ever). With strong conviction, I stated to several of my Twitter buddies that Cleveland was going to take this game against Cincinnati. Like the game mentioned above (Cle/Balt), there was something that stood out about this AFC North line that screamed for me to take a particular side. The week before, Cleveland surprised most people when beating the Vikings with their third-string quarterback behind center. People thought that Cleveland was tanking when it traded its 2012 first-round pick Trent Richardson away to the Indianapolis Colts for their first round pick in 2014, even though there's been little evidence to suggest that Richardson is even worth a first-round pick (given his pathetic yards per carry and lack of explosive runs). Cleveland led throughout and won straight up 17-6. While I assume most of my buddies lost money on this game, I was vindicated by the Browns' defense - only 269 yards allowed on 62 plays - and efficient-enough offense.
Worst Reads (like anything else I read while in British Literature)
5. San Francisco at Tennessee (+3.5) (Week 7): Never, ever, ever, ever, ever was Tennessee seriously in this game. The final score of 31-17 doesn't show how easily the Niners won this one. San Francisco treated the Titans like a rag doll much like they did to the Rams and Texans previously. I didn't feel as bad about this bad read given that the Niners are my boys. But man, was this a brutal misread.
4. Indianapolis at San Diego (SD Team total of 26.5) (Week 6): I knew there was a little risk to buying the SD total up a few points so that I could win a higher amount than I was risking. However, I had no chance of winning this one. San Diego won this one by a couple of scores and only failed on the bet by 7.5 points. Why do I assess it as a bad read then? A day before, I conversed with a friend on Twitter, saying that I liked San Diego in this game (which he agreed with). Instead of going with that, I decided to be cute and do the team total. I knew this bet was screwed when San Diego netted only 10 points despite time-consuming drives of 6:06 and 7:57. This dick-teasing continued with field goal drives in the second-half of almost equal length (5:51 and 9:09). Maybe this wasn't so much of a bad read as it was San Diego not closing off drives, but the fact that I was seriously considering San Diego in this game makes it a bad read of which bet to make.
3. Carolina at Tampa Bay +7 (Week 8): This game is fresh in my mind, so I didn't want to overblow it and put this at #1 - plus I still don't think it was my worst read. As many may know, I like to bet on bad teams from time to time, under the premise that they've gotten so bad that the point spreads have over-adjusted greatly for their sucktitude. In the situation described above, I certainly didn't like my prospects going forward in the game, confirmed by Carolina scoring on their second drive in equally easy fashion. However, with the half score only being a 14-6 deficit, I still felt positive about it. The Panthers quickly quelled those feelings, with 17 unanswered points as they cruised to a win. Only a late touchdown prevented this from looking worse than it actually was. Tampa Bay was officially put on my shit list with this performance. A game too late.
2. San Francisco +3 at Seattle (Week 2): In the Harbaugh era, the 49ers haven't had many opportunities for revenge. This was arguably their second opportunity (with the first being in 2012 when getting a chance to face the NY Giants a season after losing to them in overtime in the NFC Championship game). This one, while on a smaller scale, was much more embarrassing in terms of how easily Seattle throttled the Niners in Week 16 of the 2012 season (a 42-13 trouncing on national TV). With this line of thinking, I thought that the Niners would be more focused and get their act together. Boy, was I wrong. Only three points and 227 yards gained later (in comparison to 29 Seattle points and 314 total yards), was I way wrong. The only positive part of this bet? The fact I forgot to hit submit on the bet before the game. I still count it in my record and +/- for the year, as it was an intended bet.
1. NY Jets at Atlanta -9.5 (Week 5): Spotting a team with a fantastic defense almost 10 points while your own defense has enough holes to make Swiss cheese blush, yeah, let's take the team "that's due." Surely, the previous year's #1 seed in the NFC playoffs wouldn't fall to 1-4, including back-to-back losses at home where the team has thrived in the Matt Ryan era. This is the day they turn it around, the lower-IQ portion of my brain exclaimed before hitting submit on this brutally bad bet. Yes, the Falcons did have a 4-point lead briefly in the second quarter, but the memory of that was erased quickly thanks to back-to-back Jets drives that ended in Geno Smith passing touchdowns. I knew this one had no chance after that. This one will be hard to top in the remaining part of the season.
Most Exciting Win:
Nominees: Cincinnati +2.5 against Green Bay (Week 3); San Francisco -5 vs. Green Bay (Week 1)
Winner: New England -2 vs. New Orleans: What is easy to forget about this one - New England was covering most of this game, up until the later stages of the second half when a Saints touchdown put them ahead by 1. After a couple of failed drives and a Saints field goal, the bet seemed in peril when the Saints only needed a first down to seal the game. The Patriots forced the Saints to put, and with just over a minute to travel 70 yards with no timeouts, well...the rest is history. Brady's pass to Thompkins in the left half of the endzone (followed by the all-important point-after) netted me the thrilling cover. And no, not all covers are created equal.
Toughest Loss
Nominees: Green Bay -3 at Baltimore (Week 6); Kansas City -3 vs. Dallas (Week 2)
Winner: Houston +2 vs. Seattle: Houston had this game well-in-hand, going into halftime with a 20-3 lead (pro-football-reference gives Houston a 94.7% to win at that point in the game). As they held to a 20-13 lead with less than 3 minutes left, the suddenly infamous Matt Schaub threw a pick-6 that ultimately led to an overtime, which ultimately led to a very disappointed Brian in his toughest loss of the 2013 to date.
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