3/19/2013

Dos and Don'ts of March Madness Bracketing

Wanna be charged with a case of bracketeering?

Don't get on my bad side when it comes to filling out March Madness brackets. I'll point out the few types of folks that bother me the most.

(P.S. If you want to join my Yahoo bracket league, click on the following link and join: http://y.ahoo.it/Z7vBSl5l or just look up Group 12771 on Yahoo's Fantasy Sports Tournament Pick'Em page)

Don't Be The...

1. Guy Who Fills Out 10 Brackets...and then is bragging when one of them has an upset that occurred. If you want to fill out several brackets, that's cool. But one of your brackets has to be the master copy - the one which has what you think will actually happen, not every single upset possible just to brag when one of the 30 comes in.

2. Guy Who Picks a Square Bracket - Will each bracket feature a #1 vs. #2. in the regional final? Probably not. Will the top 4 seeds in each bracket make it to the Sweet 16? I'm going out on a limb and saying no. Please, please, please....don't be that guy who picks nothing but the highest seeds to advance in every round. Even if you're in a money pool, there's a handful of people already doing that, so you will need some variety to your picks.

If your bracket looks like this, don't join my pool. Or any pool for that matter. Your brackets need a little variety and spice.


3. Guy Who Picks Notre Dame over Montana in the NCAA Final: According to a friend of mine, he knows someone who has this match-up as the championship game of the tourney. If anyone does this in the groups I entered, I will say - thank you for your donation. At this point, you've probably picked so many upsets that winning the pool is completely unrealistic.

I'd be willing to donate a testicle to science if this is the NCAA final game.


On the other hand, you should be the....

1. Guy who has a handful of double digit seeds winning in the first full round. What fun is it to pick all the top seeds (1-8)?

And while we're at it, you should sprinkle in a few of these teams into the Sweet 16. Not all of them, but some of them.

2. Guy who has 1 or 2 #1 seeds in the Final Four. The likelihood of all 4 #1 seeds making the Final Four pays off at a 50/1 clip on 5dimes. On the other end, the likelihood of no #1 seeds making the Final Four is a 4/1 proposition - 12.5 times more likely to happen than all #1s. The best odds lie in 1 or 2 top-seeds to make the Final Four. My bracket fits this bill.

For what it's worth, the sportsbooks have the over/under of the total sum of all seeds in the Final Four to be at 12.5 - which my picks are slightly under that. I'll post some more of the fun props below.

3. Guy who has a top 3 seed winning the tourney.  Realistically, the top 3 seeds are the best bet when determining who will be the champion. In the 30 previous Final Fours of my lifetime (including 1983), there have been only four teams who have been seeded 4th or higher that won the title, and none since Arizona as a 4 seed in 1997.

Many of you are entering pools when doing these brackets, so why not think over some of these tips when entering your brackets? I wish everyone the best of luck with their brackets. I will post my bracket on Thursday.

In the meantime, ponder some of these props that are on 5dimes:

Thu 3/2115743 All #1-#4 seeds in Final 4 +173     
1:40PM15744 Any #5-#16 seed in Final 4 -205 


Thu 3/2115731 Exactly three #1-#3 seeds in Final 4 +135     
1:40PM15732 Not exactly three #1-#3 seeds in Final 4 -155 


I already have a bet from late last month on California to win the tournament at 225/1 odds - 15 to win 3750. I am considering some other long shots (Kansas State at 100/1 & Illinois at 275/1 are crossing my mind).

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