This always feels like a dangerous blog for a non-hockey fan such as myself to write. Many of the people who are hockey fans and "fans" will take offense to this, but I'm here to write about the Hawks stuff as they sit down 3-1.
The one moment that is isolated in everyone's minds with the Hawks series is Hossa's concussion at the hands of Raffi Torres, who is currently suspended indefinitely. You know it's a big deal when media outlets that don't normally give a shit about hockey are reporting on it.
The game before, Andrew Shaw drew a suspension for his hit on the Coyotes goalie, a suspension that drew the ire of much of Blackhawks nation.
Many in the fanbase say that Mike Smith (the goalie) flopped to draw the penalty, but I suspect that if this happened to a goalie of the Hawks (Crawford or Emery), Hawks fans may react a little differently and that they wouldn't mind the suspension of a Coyotes player for a hit.
The Hossa hit appears more out of line based on the concussion and Torres' history with this, but you'd never know that the Hawks do anything like this (i.e. cheap shots that lead to suspensions) based on the comments I am reading on Twitter and Facebook after Game 3.
I asked a friend of mine who follows hockey (and is impartial to the Hawks) about everything. He agreed that the Hossa hit was ugly, but that the Hawks are not innocent of being civil on the ice. He reminded me of an incident towards the end of March (Duncan Keith elbowing Daniel Sedin) that can be seen here, with an explanation by Brendan Shanahan, former player and current head of player safety.
With Keith's lack of a record, he received a 5-game suspension for this penalty. He received a suspension because the elbowing incident was "dangerous, reckless, and caused injury."
Meanwhile, Sedin missed 12 games due to the concussion received from the hit, returning for Game 4 and helping the Canucks avoid a sweep in their first-round series against the Canucks.
Maybe it has to do with the rivalry with the Canucks, but I didn't hear a huge uproar about the Hawks being a dirty team (particularly from their own fans) after this hit from the general public. I do give credit to some of my Hawks friends though. I am looking back at a friend's thread about the incident, and most of the people that I know are Hawks fans (I can attest that all in this particular conversation are true Hawks fans and not the type that joined in 2009) agreed that Keith deserved to be suspended for the hit. However, the uproar of Hossa's hit generated more interest in part due to the hit being in the playoffs, and also due to the hit being against a Hawks star, not an opponent's star.
Part of the Game
Hockey is a physical sport, and the fans of the sport are proud of the physical nature of the sport. None of them want to see fighting and other physical acts from the sport banned, as many of them believe that would take away from the nature of the sport. However, fans do want the players to play within the "rules" when it comes to the hits and other hockey-related things that have always been "a part of the game".
I put these things in quotes because I find it hard for hockey to ever effectively regulate itself without pissing off all of the die-hard fans who expect the game to be played a certain way. A punch to the head of your star player makes you think about things a certain way, but if your third-string goon is doing the damage to another team's star, it's accepted as part of the game, how the game has always been.
Whether you like him or not, under the leadership of Roger Goddell, the NFL has done its best to eliminate the crap that has always been accepted as "part of the game". No one is naive to think that the Saints were the first to have a form of a bounty system within their organization. But with the repeated warnings that the Saints received about it and the organization pretty much ignoring it, the NFL had no choice but to lay the hammer down on the Saints for its ill-conceived program. This sets a precedent for future teams to consider before starting/continuing with their own programs. The concussion issue, especially with the players of the past suing the NFL for not effectively preparing them regarding player safety, is scaring the hell out of Goddell and his boys. It scares them in the present tense in the form of legal issues, but also in the future, where the NFL could face an uncertain future and potentially go the way of boxing if they were to completely ignore safety issues (even if they don't ignore it, it could still face an uncertain future - I don't think the NFL is invincible).
While the NHL is more of a Canadian sport, I do believe it should have the same worries about its sport fading into (further) oblivion if it doesn't start valuing player safety. After all, without players, you have no sport.
Is hockey too niched of a sport for the mainstream sports fan to actually give a crap on whether they change the rules to protect players from injury? From my perspective, it seems like hockey fans, like many football fans (myself, I don't need huge hits for football to be enjoyable), take great pride in their sport being a physical sport, one where their sport's athletes are modern day gladiators.
So you can forgive me when I say that I don't feel all that bad when players in such a sport get hurt. A sport that encourages physical play, where fights and hard hits are cheered upon instead of gasped at (like bench-clearing brawls in baseball and basketball).
I'm not sure where I was going with this - I think it was just to say that I don't think that what Torres did to Hossa is any different than what Keith or what many hockey players do to others. It's just that now, it was done in the playoffs and to one of their own instead of a star rival player's (again, I speak of those silent on the issue in March - many of my real Hawks friends stepped up and said Keith deserved it with the hit to Sedin).
I just find it hard to take critiques of hits seriously when the same judgment isn't applied to your own team. As a 49ers fan in football, if my team uses cheap tactics to win games, I expect them to be punished. I am objective enough to know when one of my own has crossed the line. Then again, the average fan (i.e. ignorant piece of crap) would probably be like the average Hawks (and average ignorant sports fan in general) and only care when the incident happened against their team. If their player does it, it's a case of "See No Evil, Hear No Evil".
Luckily, most friends of mine aren't average fans and aren't completely blind and know dirty, unethical sports when they see them. I'm glad that my closest friends who are true hockey fans don't apply to the idiot label and can agree that Hossa's hit, while dirty, is just among one of many dirty hits that occur in hockey all the time. Let's not forget that the suspension for the hit was indefinite.
Ok, I'm done. It's 3am. If you don't like this, tough.
Good night, and enjoy the rest of the hockey playoffs.
4/18/2012
An Analysis of Strength of Schedule for NFL 2012
The NFL released its schedule yesterday, which seems to draw a ton of interest despite everyone's slate of opponents already known.
Everyone is thirsting for WHEN teams are playing, with everyone looking to see how often their team gets prime-time games and if they are on special dates (i.e. Thanksgiving or Christmas).
However, the one thing that annoys me to no end is when people will complain about one team's schedule being easier than others, despite the fact that 14 of the 16 games are already pre-determined (the normal 6 division games + playing one set division in each conference - 4 games each). The reason teams who have great records (i.e. Packers and Patriots) end up having the "easiest" schedule is because they don't have to face themselves, yet their divisional opponents have their 15-1/13-3 records counted against their own schedules twice.
This is one of but many things that people need to be educated on when it comes to this. An analysis of strength of schedule (no particular order):
Table of Strength of Schedule from end of 2010 for the 2011 season, how it changed as 2011 played out, and how much team improved/declined in win total. Strength of schedule for 2012 gathered from http://www.nflschedulesupersite.com/2012-nfl-strength-of-schedule/
Everyone is thirsting for WHEN teams are playing, with everyone looking to see how often their team gets prime-time games and if they are on special dates (i.e. Thanksgiving or Christmas).
However, the one thing that annoys me to no end is when people will complain about one team's schedule being easier than others, despite the fact that 14 of the 16 games are already pre-determined (the normal 6 division games + playing one set division in each conference - 4 games each). The reason teams who have great records (i.e. Packers and Patriots) end up having the "easiest" schedule is because they don't have to face themselves, yet their divisional opponents have their 15-1/13-3 records counted against their own schedules twice.
This is one of but many things that people need to be educated on when it comes to this. An analysis of strength of schedule (no particular order):
- For the most part, Strength of Schedule is combination of luck and strength of division. Why does New England have one of the easiest schedules next year? Check their division--no one finished better than 8-8. Also, check the divisions that they were already pre-assigned to: NFC West (aside from San Fran, same situation--no one better than 8-8) and the AFC South (weighed down by crappy Jaguars and Colts). Remember - 14 of EVERY TEAM'S 16 game schedule is already decided based on division and a rotating division in each conference. The only two games that are decided based on previous year's record - you play the equivalent place teams of the two divisions within your conference that you do not play already. Many times, the record of those teams isn't enough to offset the bad teams already on your schedule.
- Having an "easy" schedule does not equate to success. This should go without saying, but some people need to be reminded that the NFL changes greatly from year to year, with many teams making strong pushes and sharp declines out of nowhere. For example, any team who had the Colts on their schedule last year looked to be facing a 10-6 team from 2010, only to have Peyton Manning out for a year en route to a 2-14 season. Similarly, the 49ers went from 6-10 to 13-3 -- with many other examples in between on both extremes that show that looking at last year's record to see how tough this year's schedule will be is like using a compass to gauge the temperature.
Some examples of teams with tough schedules entering 2011 who did well: Detroit (tied for 3rd hardest schedule entering 2011 with six other teams at 133-123) went from 6-10 to 10-6 and their first playoff berth in ages. Houston (opponents 132-124 in 2010) did the same and won their first division title in franchise history.
The teams with the hardest schedules (Carolina at 142-114 and Buffalo at 137-119) didn't make the playoffs (both finished with 6 wins), but both teams finished with more wins than the year before (Carolina tripled their win total while Buffalo went from 4 to 6).
The teams with the easiest schedules entering the year (Arizona, Baltimore, San Francisco & Washington in Top 4) had mixed results, showing no particular pattern between how a team will do based on their opponent's record from last year. - Obviously, the point of the season that you play an opponent is important...but you can't tell me that a team has an easy schedule solely based on when you play a team. A guy I follow on Twitter made the argument that the Jets' schedule is killer out of the gate while the Patriots' toughest games are at home against the Niners and Texans. As I've stated before (and can't state enough) that 87.5% of your games are already pre-determined, so to figure out a way to make it so that the "good" teams you play throughout the season are spread out (so you're not stacking the deck against a team as this one Twitter follow of mine suggested w/ the Jets) is idiotic at best.
If your "easy" games out of the gate get you to a 2 or 3-0 record, does that improve your chances of making the playoffs? Sure, but if you're a true playoff team, you're going to find a way to beat the good/great teams (no matter where they come up on the schedule) on occasion while dominating the crap teams (let's say 65-70% - just to pull a number out of my ass). Let's say that you start a season with 4 teams who made the playoffs last year (2 at home, 2 on the road) - a 2-2 start isn't a bad first quarter of the year, 1-3/0-4, and it probably means you're not a good team to begin with. You can't use schedule as an excuse.
I do admit that timing of certain games will help a team win or lose a game or two that would have otherwise resulted in the opposite outcome - due to injuries, player development, weather, etc. But to say that the Patriots have a cakewalk of a schedule (compared to the Jets, who only have two different opponents) is really just saying that the Patriots are better than them and the difference between the different teams they face isn't much. - Strength of schedule entering a year is not what it will be when the year is done. Using the 2010 records of opponents and how their opponents actually fared can look like mirror images when the year is over.
Take a look at the chart below. A total of 10 teams saw their opponent's record change by more than 7 total wins, meaning that their average opponent increased or decreased their win total by 0.5 wins or more. There are plenty of reasons for a team's projected strength of schedule changes from preseason to actual season, many of them having to do with the improvement/decline of their own team and the improvement/decline of their opponents. When it comes to the decline of an opponent, a team obviously cannot control that - just take advantage of it.
Out of these 10 teams, six of them resulted in easier schedules (with the Patriots, Saints, Texans and Packers making it to the playoffs) - some may blame their weakened divisions for that, others may say the divisions became weaker BECAUSE of these teams. The four teams who had their schedule toughened by 10+ games from 2010 to 2011 (Cleveland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay & Minnesota) were among the league's worst teams in the league, so they may have contributed to their own tough schedule due to their suckiness. - If we use 2011 final Strength of Schedule and compare it to the 2012 version entering the year...here are some teams that could be looking at drastic changes in wins/losses:
Buffalo Bills go from a 133-123 schedule to a 121-135 schedule. If it plays out as such, I could see them getting up to 8 wins.
Baltimore goes from 122-134 to 134-122. Could mean a two-game decrease in wins if it plays out that way (10-6 record in 2012).
Indy goes from 138-118 to 128-128. Much of this is a product of going from playing first-place AFC teams in every division to last-place. A marginal improvement to 4-5 wins could be in order.
Dallas actually had one of the easiest schedules last year (119-137) and failed to take advantage of it, so their opponents which sport 129-127 in 2012 could actually make for a dip in wins for America's team.
Aside from Green Bay, everyone else in the NFC North (even Detroit) looks to make improvements if the 2012 schedule strength means anything. By no means are the Packers a lock to repeat as NFC North champions.
San Fran (13-3) and Arizona (8-8) will play tougher schedules, while the Rams, who had by far the most difficult schedule in 2011 (151-105 is 8 games harder than any other team in the league), should improve by at least a couple games.
Obviously, all of the above scenarios do not take health or other things into account. A team losing its starting QB (like Packers or Patriots) would throw everything completely off the rails. - You're probably wondering...how can Brian dismiss the strength of schedule, yet use an example above to see what teams could improve or decline next year? I don't think strength of schedule is a completely useless tool - it gives you an idea of how tough of opponents that you will have if the team plays similarly to the year before, which is often not the case. I do think some teams are consistent enough (consistently good and bad) from year to year, where looking at their record could prove to be useful in projecting expectations. But those teams that fluctuate 4+ wins year in/year out don't really help the SOS model all that much when predicting how your team will do next year.
Table of Strength of Schedule from end of 2010 for the 2011 season, how it changed as 2011 played out, and how much team improved/declined in win total. Strength of schedule for 2012 gathered from http://www.nflschedulesupersite.com/2012-nfl-strength-of-schedule/
| 2010 Win/Loss | 2011 Win/Loss | Difference | Net Team Wins | Playoffs? | 2012 Schedule | |
| AFC East | ||||||
| New England | 129-127 | 115-141 | -14 | -1 | yes | 116-140 |
| NY Jets | 133-123 | 128-128 | -5 | -3 | no | 126-130 |
| Miami | 130-126 | 129-127 | -1 | -1 | no | 127-129 |
| Buffalo | 137-119 (2) | 133-123 | -4 | 2 | no | 121-135 |
| AFC North | ||||||
| Balt | 117-139 | 122-134 | 5 | 0 | yes | 134-122 |
| Cincy | 121-135 | 126-130 | 5 | 5 | yes | 128-128 |
| Cleveland | 126-130 | 136-120 | 10 | -1 | no | 135-121 |
| Pitt | 121-135 | 126-130 | 5 | 0 | yes | 128-128 |
| AFC South | ||||||
| Tennessee | 125-131 | 121-135 | -4 | -3 | no | 123-133 |
| Indy | 133-123 | 138-118 | 5 | -8 | no | 128-128 |
| Jax | 132-124 | 128-128 | -4 | 3 | no | 128-128 |
| Houston | 132-124 | 116-140 | -16 | 4 | yes | 121-135 |
| AFC West | ||||||
| Denver | 133-123 | 133-123 | 0 | 4 | yes | 139-117 |
| San Diego | 133-123 | 132-124 | -1 | -1 | no | 133-123 |
| KC | 133-123 | 131-125 | -2 | -2 | no | 126-130 |
| Oakland | 126-130 | 129-127 | 3 | -1 | no | 127-129 |
| NFC East | ||||||
| Dallas | 129-127 | 119-137 | -10 | 2 | no | 129-127 |
| Washington | 121-135 | 122-134 | 1 | -1 | no | 125-131 |
| NY Giants | 126-130 | 133-123 | 7 | -1 | yes | 140-116 |
| Philly | 129-127 | 125-131 | -4 | -2 | no | 132-124 |
| NFC North | ||||||
| Green Bay | 130-126 | 116-140 | -14 | 5 | yes | 120-136 |
| Minnesota | 132-124 | 143-113 | 11 | -3 | no | 131-125 |
| Chicago | 128-128 | 135-121 | 7 | -3 | no | 126-130 |
| Detroit | 133-123 | 137-119 | 4 | 4 | yes | 126-130 |
| NFC West | ||||||
| San Fran | 119-137 | 114-142 | -5 | 7 | yes | 125-131 |
| Seattle | 125-131 | 131-125 | 6 | 0 | no | 129-127 |
| Arizona | 113-143 | 120-136 | 7 | 3 | no | 131-125 |
| St Louis | 122-134 | 151-105 | 29 | -5 | no | 134-122 |
| NFC South | ||||||
| New Orleans | 130-126 | 113-143 | -17 | 2 | yes | 129-127 |
| Atlanta | 126-130 | 123-133 | -3 | -3 | yes | 125-131 |
| Tampa Bay | 127-129 | 141-117 | 14 | -6 | no | 124-132 |
| Carolina | 142-114 (1) | 129-127 | -13 | 4 | no | 130-126 |
4/14/2012
A Model Citizen (Blog 200)
For my 200th blog, I am very proud to make it as self-centered as I possibly can.
What do I talk about....my bowling abilities? Nah - nothing to write home about lately.
My amazing gambling wins of the past couple months? This has been better than my bowling, especially with March Madness, but still, not the topic I care to discuss.
Rather, it's something that I can't talk about off the top of my head...wait, actually, I can.
This 5'9", 215 pound mutt will be (drumroll please)......a hair model. That's right, yours truly will be showing off his amazing haircut in front of the employees and bosses of Red 7 Salon, the place where my beautiful girlfriend works.
From my understanding, I get to walk like I am on a runway, showing off the haircut that Jen's co-worker Lindsey (who is completing her initial 15-month program) recently gave me. I must say, it's a sharp haircut that I've gotten quite the compliments. Luckily, nothing that the girlfriend has to beat any women up for (at least at this point).
I will be one of seven different hairstyles on display at Lindsey's show - and the only male participant. As if I needed more of an ego boost.
I hope a video or some pictures of this surfaces sooner rather than later and I can show everyone how terrific of a hair model I am. Hopefully, it will be a better modeling job than George Costanza's hand modeling career on Seinfeld.
The real question now becomes - is there any way I can put this into my resume....especially without looking like a complete tool? I doubt it, but I can only imagine what kind of conversations would come from potential future employers about the brief modeling career.
Wish me luck as I grace the stage of Red 7 Salon and show off my amazing catwalk skills.
Also, thanks for everyone inspiring me to keep writing the past 200 blogs. I hope to keep going with this into the future years in some form.
What do I talk about....my bowling abilities? Nah - nothing to write home about lately.
My amazing gambling wins of the past couple months? This has been better than my bowling, especially with March Madness, but still, not the topic I care to discuss.
Rather, it's something that I can't talk about off the top of my head...wait, actually, I can.
This 5'9", 215 pound mutt will be (drumroll please)......a hair model. That's right, yours truly will be showing off his amazing haircut in front of the employees and bosses of Red 7 Salon, the place where my beautiful girlfriend works.
From my understanding, I get to walk like I am on a runway, showing off the haircut that Jen's co-worker Lindsey (who is completing her initial 15-month program) recently gave me. I must say, it's a sharp haircut that I've gotten quite the compliments. Luckily, nothing that the girlfriend has to beat any women up for (at least at this point).
I will be one of seven different hairstyles on display at Lindsey's show - and the only male participant. As if I needed more of an ego boost.
I hope a video or some pictures of this surfaces sooner rather than later and I can show everyone how terrific of a hair model I am. Hopefully, it will be a better modeling job than George Costanza's hand modeling career on Seinfeld.
The real question now becomes - is there any way I can put this into my resume....especially without looking like a complete tool? I doubt it, but I can only imagine what kind of conversations would come from potential future employers about the brief modeling career.
Wish me luck as I grace the stage of Red 7 Salon and show off my amazing catwalk skills.
Also, thanks for everyone inspiring me to keep writing the past 200 blogs. I hope to keep going with this into the future years in some form.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)